1. 1 CAMELS CAMELS PROJECT OVERVIEW Motivation for CAMELS Deliverables Products Structure Peter Cox, Hadley Centre, Met Office

2. 2 CAMELS Kyoto Sinks Article 3.3 : “The net change in greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use change and forestry activities, …… measured as verifiable changes … shall be used to meet the commitments.” Article 3.4 : “……each Party …… shall provide …… data to establish its level of carbon stocks in 1990 and to enable an estimate to be made of its changes in carbon stocks in subsequent years……”

3. 3 CAMELS CAMELS and the Kyoto Protocol Annex I countries are permitted to partially offset their emissions of CO 2 by carbon accumulated due to forest management and “additional human-induced” change in land-use and land management. The related sources and sinks of CO 2 must be reported in a “transparent and verifiable manner”. CAMELS will provide key support to EU countries in meeting their obligations under Kyoto.

4. 4 CAMELS CAMELS Motivating Science Questions Where are the current carbon sources and sinks located on the land and how do European sinks compare with other large continental areas? Why do these sources and sinks exist, i.e. what are the relative contributions of CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, climate variability, land management and land-use change? How could we make optimal use of existing data sources and the latest models to produce operational estimates of the European land carbon sink?

5. 5 CAMELS Inverse Modelling Method : Use atmospheric transport model to infer CO 2 sources and sinks most consistent with atmospheric CO 2 measurements. Advantages : a) Large-scale; b) Data based (transparency). Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (network too sparse); b) not constrained by ecophysiological understanding; c) net CO 2 flux only (cannot isolate land management).

6. 6 CAMELS Inverse Modelling - Uncertainties Fan et al. (1998): 1.7 GtC/yr sink in North America. Bousquet et al. (1999): 0.5 +/- 0.6 GtC/yr in North America, 1.3 GtC/yr in Siberia.

7. 7 CAMELS Forward Modelling Method : Build “bottom-up” process-based models of land and ocean carbon uptake. Advantages : a) Include physical and ecophysiological constraints; b) Can isolate land-management effects; c) can be used predictively (not just monitoring). Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (gaps in process understanding); b) Do not make optimal use of large-scale observational constraints.

8. 8 CAMELS Forward Modelling - Land Uncertainties Smoothed Mean and Standard Deviation of DGVM Predictions (Cramer et al., 2001) Diagram from Royal Soc. Sinks Report

9. 9 CAMELS CAMELS Products Best estimates and uncertainty bounds for the contemporary and historical land carbon sinks in Europe and elsewhere, isolating the effects of direct land-management. A prototype carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS) exploiting existing data sources (e.g. flux measurements, carbon inventory data, satellite products) and the latest terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs), in order to produce operational estimates of “Kyoto sinks“.

10. 10 CAMELS CAMELS Workpackages WP1. Data Harmonisation and Consolidation (ALTERRA) WP2. Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis (MPI-BGC) WP3. Modelling of the 20 th Century Land Carbon Balance (LSCE) WP4. Development of a System for Carbon Data Assimilation (MetO) WP5. Dissemination of Information (UNITUS)

11. 11 CAMELS CAMELS Flow Diagram

12. 12 CAMELS CAMELS Facts and figures CAMELS is a key part of the CarboEurope cluster. CAMELS involves a coordinator (Met Office), 8 contractors (CEA, MPI- BGC, ALTERRA, UNITUS, EFI, NERC, CNRS, JRC) and 1 subcontractor (FastOpt). CAMELS will receive 1.4MEuro over 3 years from 1st Nov 2002-31st Oct 2005. CAMELS will provide improved estimates or historical and contemporary land carbon sinks. CAMELS will combine the best data sources and forward carbon models to produce a carbon cycle data assimilation system.

13. 13 CAMELS CAMELS Deliverables 1 D1.1 Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs. Month 6DaPU D1.2 Atmospheric CO 2 dataset for use in nowcasting system. Month 9DaPU D1.3 Land-use and nitrogen deposition historical datasets (1900-2000). Month 12 DaPU D1.4 Datasets of recent change in European land carbon. Month 15 DaPU D1.5 Dataset of fAPAR for EuropeMonth 18 DaPU D2.1 Report on improved process representation in TEMs. Month 18 RePU

14. 14 CAMELS CAMELS Deliverables 2 D2.2 Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM. Month 24 DaPU D3.1 Contemporary carbon stores and TEM parameters constrained by 20 th century simulations. Month 24 SiPU D3.2 Simulations of the historical land carbon balance, with and without land-use change. Month 30 SiPU D3.3 Diagnosis of thecauses of the European land carbon sink in the context of the Kyoto Proto. Month 36 SiPU D4.1 Report on design of nowcasting carbon data assimilation system. Month 30 RePU D4.2 Estimates of the contemporary European land carbon sink, and its causes. Month 36 SiPU

15. 15 CAMELS CAMELS Deliverables 3 D5.1 Project website with a layered structure.Month 3PrPU D5.2 Online and ad hoc consultation to European Commission. As Required Expert Advice CO D5.3 Report on the estimation of the contemporary land carbon sink and its causes. Month 36 RePu