1. 2015 HRS and Durum Crops Outlook
Erica Olson
Marketing Specialist, NDWC

2. Summary The GOOD: The BAD: The UNKOWN: Early planting, quick harvest
Record to near-record yields
Improved quality
Fairly good demand
The BAD:
Declining price
The UNKOWN:
When will prices increase/decrease
2016 acreage

3. U.S. SPRING WHEAT PLANTINGS & PRODUCTION
Million Acres
Million Bushels
* Typically includes million bushels of white spring wheat.
Source: USDA October 2015
Xldata/HRS/Acres

4. Average U.S. Wheat Yields
Bushels Per Acre
Metric Tons Per Hectare
HRS – Winter – All – 43.8
HRS – likely go higher with harvest reports we have heard.
US all wheat record yield 2010&2012
Winter wheat yield 47.8 compared to 47.2 last year….record?
HRS was 2010 – could surpass that this year
Source: USDA Sept 2015

5. HRS Quality Summary Notable improvements in:
Protein – nearly two-thirds above 14%
Vitreousness
Falling Number
DON levels
High grading crop – overall #1 DNS, over 90% is a number one grade
Increased milling yields
Stable to slightly stronger dough properties
Higher loaf volumes

6. HRS Grading & Kernel Characteristics
2014
2015
5-Year Avg.
ND 2015
Test Weight
(lbs/bu.)
61.4
61.6
61.9
1000 KWT (g)
32.4
31.3
31.0
Damage (%)
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.5
Total Defects
0.9
1.2
Vitreous Kernels (%) 53 83 69 81
Protein (12% moisture)
13.6
14.1
14.0
Falling Number (seconds)
339
372
383
DON
0.3

7. HRS: Protein Content (12% moisture basis
yr avg is 14.0

8. HRS Protein Spreads

9. HRS: 2015 Protein Content by State (12% moisture basis)
14.4
14.1
13.8
15.0
14.0

10. HRS: Vitreous Kernel Content Distribution
2014 Avg. = 53
2015 Avg. = 83
Percent

11. HRS: Falling Number Distribution
2014 Avg. = 339
2015 Avg. = 372
Seconds

12. HRS: Flour Extraction - - - 5 yr avg is 68.5%
Test milling was conducted on a Buhler laboratory mill. Results are suitable for comparison between crop years, however yields are lower than those obtained in commercial mills.
yr avg is 68.5%

13. U.S. Hard Red Spring: Dough Quality Farinograph Results
Minutes 10 11 12 13 14 15
Peak
6.2
7.5
7.4
6.0
6.7
Mix Tolerance
10.2
11.0
12.2
9.0
9.4
10.3

14. Factors affecting HRS market
Record world wheat production and supplies
Good HRS production and quality
Buyers not concerned about supplies
Weaker overall U.S. wheat exports – HRS and durum faring better than other classes
Buyers making hand to mouth purchases
Competition
Strong dollar
No major weather concerns….yet
Dry in Black Sea, up to 1/3 of crops in Russian and Ukraine considered poor condition
Australia – rains prior to harvest could cause quality issues

15. WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION
Million Tons
Million Bushels
Source: USDA October 2015
Xldata/world/all wheat/wheat/prod

16. WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION – MAP (Million Bushels)
USDA October 2015
xldata/world/all/prod & use

17. WORLD WHEAT STOCKS Million Tons Million Bushels
Source: USDA October 2015
Xldata/world/all wheat/wheat/prod

18. U.S. HARD RED SPRING SUPPLY & DEMAND Million Bushels
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
Proj
15-16
Change
Beg Stocks
185
151
165
169
212
+25%
Production
398
505
491
556
564
+1%
Imports 35 43 77 66 45
-32%
Tot Supply
618
699
733
791
821
+4%
Dom Use
225
303
318
308
287
-7%
Exports
242
232
246
270
295
+9%
Tot Use
467
534
579
582
End Stocks
239
+13%
S/U Ratio
32%
31%
30%
37%
41%
Source: USDA October 2015
Xldata/HRS/S&D

19. EXPORT PACE FOR U.S. WHEAT (Shipments and Sales as of October 29, 2015)
Million Bushels
CLASS
14/15 PACE
15/16 PACE
% CHANGE
Hard Red Winter
181
127
-30%
Soft Red Winter
105 82
-22%
Hard Red Spring
175
145
-17%
White 93 88
-5%
Durum 12 20
+67%
TOTAL
566
462
-18%

20. EXPORT PACE – U.S. HRS WHEAT (Shipment and sales as of October 29, 2015)
Million Tons
Million Bushels
11/5/15

21. U.S. Dollar Index

22. U. S. FUTURES TRENDS Minneapolis – Hard Red Spring Kansas City – Hard Red Winter Chicago – Soft Red Winter – World prices
$ per Bushel
$ per Ton
11/4/15

23. U.S. WHEAT PRICE CHANGE AT THE PNW
$ per Ton
$ per Bushel
11/4/15

24. Northern Durum Quality Summary
Notable improvements in:
Vitreousness
Falling Number
DON levels
Protein
High grading crop – overall #1 HAD, majority is a #2 HAD or better
Improved milling and pasta processing qualities

25. Durum Grading & Kernel Characteristics
2014
2015
5-Year Avg.
ND 2015
Test Weight
(lbs/bu.)
59.0
60.6
60.0
60.7
1000 KWT (g)
38.0
38.5
39.2
39.7
Damage (%)
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.4
Total Defects
1.6
1.3
1.7
Vitreous Kernels (%) 74 91 84 88
Protein (12% moisture)
13.2
13.9
13.5
13.6
Falling Number (seconds)
276
414
354
407
DON
2.1
1.2

26. U.S. Northern Durum: Grade Distribution

27. U.S. Northern Durum: Falling Number Distribution
2014 Avg. = 276
2015 Avg. = 414
Seconds

28. U.S. Northern Durum: Vitreous Kernel Content Distribution
2014 Avg. = 74%
2015 Avg. = 91%
Percent

29. U.S. Northern Durum: 2015 Vitreous Kernels by Crop Area (percent)
97% A
87% B
89% C
96% B
95% D
89%

30. U.S. Northern Durum: 2015 DON by Crop Area (ppm)
<0.25 B
<0.25 A
1.2 B
2.9 C
1.1 D
0.3

31. U.S. Northern Durum: Pasta Color Score
yr avg is 8.9
A pasta sample with a score of 8.0 or higher is considered to have good quality.

32. U.S. Northern Durum: Pasta Cooked Firmness
yr avg is 4.6
Grams CM

33. Factors affecting Durum market
World production up 10% after reaching 13-year low in 2014
Canadian crop lower than average, but better than expected
EU crop is larger
World stocks continue to tighten
Durum susceptible to wide price swings
Recovery in production and quality in U.S. crop
Strong demand for U.S. durum
However, overall world durum trade expected to be down this year, especially in EU and North Africa
Higher domestic production, no major quality shortfalls
Prices holding a premium to bread wheat, but for how long?

34. WORLD DURUM PRODUCTION – MAP (Million Bushels)
Source: Stats Canada and Int’l Grains Council
Xldata/world/durum/prod October 2015

35. World Import Durum Demand
Million Tons
Million Bushels

36. Durum Stocks in Major Exporting Countries – U. S
Durum Stocks in Major Exporting Countries – U.S., Canada, European Union
Million Tons
Million Bushels
Source: Stats Canada and Int’l Grains Council
Xldata/world/durum/sdmajor1 October 2015

37. U.S. DURUM WHEAT PLANTINGS BY STATE
Million Hectares
Source: USDA October 2015

38. U.S. DURUM SUPPLY & DEMAND Million Bushels
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
Proj
15-16
Change
Beg Stocks 35 25 23 22 26
+18%
Production
107 50 82 58 54
+52%
Imports 34 37 36 44 40
-20%
Tot Supply
176
122
143
125
126
148
+17%
Dom Use 98 70 91 73 63 78
+24%
Exports 43 27 29 31
+8%
Tot Use
141 97
120
103
100
118
End Stocks 30
+15%
S/U Ratio
25%
27%
19%
21%
26%
Source: USDA October 2015
Xldata/durum/S&D

39. EXPORT PACE – U.S. DURUM WHEAT 2015-16 as of October 29, 2015
Million Bushels
Million Tons
11/5/15

40. Average N.D. Hard Red Spring and Durum Wheat Producer Bids
$ per Bushel
$ per Ton
10/9/15

41. Average N.D. Durum Wheat Prices
$ per Bushel
$ per Ton
10/31/15

42. QUESTIONS??