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1  Welcome and thank you for being here!  Please complete the registration form:  Please write in at the bottom how many students you impact annually  Please write at the top that the materials you will receive will be VE4.5 (Virtual Economics 4.5)

2

3 501(c)3 Texas wide nonprofit 1801 Allen Parkway, Houston, TX 77019 tcee@economicstexas.org www.economicstexas.orgwww.economicstexas.org * www.smartertexas.orgwww.smartertexas.org P: 713.655.1650 Presenter: Laura Ewing/President

4 What Role Does Texas Council on Economic Education Play? The Texas Council on Economic Education (TCEE) Teaches Teachers Who Teach Students Who Are the Future of Texas --John Anderson, TCEE Board Member

5 Smarter Texas Conference Summer 2016

6 Thank you for supporting the training today!

7 Three Student Programs Directly Reach 25,000 students annually Stock Market Game™ Economics Challenge Personal Financial Literacy (PFL) Challenge

8 Generous FINRA grant covers South TX 2015-16 Team Fees Fall: Sept. 28 – Dec. 4 Need 5 plays by Oct. 28, 2015 Spring: Feb. 8 – April 15 10 week simulation Grades 4 through 12 Teams of 4to 5 students Virtual $100,000 to invest Research indicates improved math scores on standardized tests Students visit Dallas for the first time. Greenhill School parents thank TCEE.

9 InvestWrite Open to students participating in the Stock Market Game™ Elementary, Middle and High School Competition Cash prizes from Texas Greenhill High School National Winner visited Wall Street First and 9 th Place National Winners From Texas in 2014

10 How Do You Get These Materials? www.economicstexas.org www.Smartertexas.org

11 Saving For College The Why, When, and How Published by RAISE Texas Parent and Student Guides Written by TCEE Download Book And Guides at http://economicstexas.org/?page_id=5703 http://economicstexas.org/?page_id=5703

12 Grades K to 8 Math PFL Lessons Visit resources: Economics texas.org Smartertexas.org

13 Presentations Available Online “Recent Presentations”

14 The TCEE programs are made possible by the following TCEE partners. copyDR. EnviroChem Services, Inc. Trout Foundation John Anderson Less B. Fox RBC Wealth Management

15 Free Council for Econ Ed Resources Online economics and financial literacy lessons Gen I Revolution teaches financial literacy through problem solving 15

16 How to access concepts and lessons in a VE4.5 Click “Open folder to view files”

17 Click “Launch VE 4.5 – Windows” Click “_VE45” Hint: Look for a green circle that says “VE”

18 If you would like to look for concepts, click “Browse Economic Concepts”

19 Fundamental Economics

20 If you would like to look for lessons, click “Browse Economic Lessons”

21 Search for any topic by keyword. ( Investments, saving, borrowing, capital formation, insurance, etc.) You can also filter the results by grade!

22 Selected lesson

23 Search by publication and by grade!

24 Table of Contents for High School FFFL

25 John Ivie - Chair Ivie Law Firm Patricia Hardy State Board of Education, Member District 11 Weatherford ISD Robert Smith III President Texas A&M University Galveston Lisa Clawson President - Addison Happy State Bank Laura Jaramillo Senior Vice President Government & Community Relations Group Wells Fargo Pete Villarreal EVP, Chief Administrative Officer PlainsCapital Bank Anthony Daddino Meadows, Collier, LLP Marcus McCue Executive Vice President Guardian Mortgage Co., Inc Homer Erikson TCU University Andrew DeLauro Senior Vice President BB&T Dawn Moeder Assurance Services Partner Lane Gorman Trubitt, LLP John Anderson- Director Emeritus Anderson Investments Thomas Fleissner President and CEO Houston Information Team, LLC Donna Normandin Senior Vice President Frost Bank Carol J. Trout - Director Emeritus Trout Foundation Aaron Gladstone Associate Hilltop Holdings Inc. Rob Pivnick Vice President Goldman, Sachs & Co. James Cooper - ex officio James C. Cooper, Inc. Wayne Goettsche WKG Consult Edmund P. Segner III Professor/Civil & Environmental Engineering Rice University Board of Directors

26 Laura Ewing President/CEO Texas Council on Economic Education www.economicstexas.org www.smartertexas.org Laura@economicstexas.org 713-655-1650

27 1. Land 2. Labor 3. Capital 4. Entrepreneurship

28 Role of property rights Use these concepts to explain the free enterprise system in colonial America: Property rights Incentives Productive Specialization Trade Global economy Investments profits

29 What is the difference? Good: Service: Which of the items on the list are goods and which are services? Rank order: which do you think most important to least important.

30 What do you know about the US Articles of Confederation and U.S. Constitution? Years? Purpose? Who wrote? Why?

31 U. S. Constitution First Continental Congress met September 5, 1774 in Philadelphia in response to the Coercive Acts (Intolerable Acts) passed by Parliament which had punished Boston for the Boston Tea party Agreed to petition King George for redress of grievances 12/13 colonies attended with 56 people (only Georgia, the convict state not included) First CC agreed to meet again next year Shot heard ‘round the world in Lexington 1775

32 Second Continental Congress Began meeting in Philadelphia May 1775 Organized the war effort Commissioned writing of Declaration of Independence When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of God’s Nature entitled them…should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

33 Declaration of Independence We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness-that to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government because destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government…Right to revolt…after a long train of abuses… List of grievances John Hancock’s signature Written by Thomas Jefferson

34 Economic Problems During the Articles of Confederation Debt Taxation Tariff Battles Military Weakness

35 A New Nation in 1781: One Nation or Thirteen? Guidelines for the activity: 1. Individually read the problem and the predicting consequences. 2. Succinctly state the problem in one sentence. 3. What do you think the consequences will be? 4. Work in a small group and compare your problem sentences. As a group restate the problem statement. 5. As a group, restate what you predict the consequences will be. 6. Share your answers with the class.

36 Processing Activity on Articles of Confederation How did the Articles reflect the wishes of a people vying for less centralized power? What were issues with the Articles? What will happen as a result of the issues?

37 The U. S. Constitution: The Rules of the Game What is the role of the government in the U.S. market economy? Constitutional Convention May to September 1787 September 17, 1787 is Constitution Day

38 The U. S. Constitution: The Rules of the Game The new nation was in financial crisis. The new states sent 55 leaders to amend the Articles of Confederation. They met from May until September 1787. They quickly learned that they needed to make substantial changes. They wrote a new Constitution based on Adam Smith’s concepts of economic freedom. What were the new rules of the game?

39 The Constitution: Rules for the Economy As you participate in the activity, notice the new rules of the game, why they were established, and the expected outcomes. Read Economic Freedom and the Founders The Particular: Name and summary of statement Location In US Constitution Based on the rule, how would you decide on the question? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

40 Rules of the Game and YOU What are three ways that the rules of the game affect you: Economically? Personally?

41 THE DEMAND FOR IMMIGRANTS EXAMINE AN ECONOMIC MYSTERY AS TO WHY SWEDISH FARMERS MIGHT HAVE COME TO THE U.S. IN 1880 STUDY VISUALS TO DETERMINE YOUR ANSWER USE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE KING TRIED TO CONVINCE THEM TO RETURN

42 WHY DID IMMIGRANTS COME TO THE U.S. LATE 1800’S? 1865 to 1920 = 28 million + to U.S. Sought higher standard of living Join family and friends Needed jobs due to surplus labor abroad Escape religious persecution Read advertisements of promises for better life Why do you think Swedish immigrants would have abandoned their lands in the late 19 th and early 20 th centuries to come to the U.S.?

43 DISCUSS VISUAL 22.I Read the advertisement distributed to farmers in Sweden in the 1880’s by representatives of Union Pacific Railroad. RR companies wanted to sell land, establish farmers in west who would sell and buy products distributed by the railroads. RR built ahead of demand. Use visual 22.1 and Activity 22.1 to read and answer the questions in context of the information given. Three rules of economic decision-making include that people:  Decide based on the most advantageous combination of costs and benefits  Respond to incentives in predictable ways  Must deal with the rule of the economic system and their influence on choices and incentives

44 VISUAL TWO REVIEW THE STATISTICS ESTIMATE HOW MANY IMMIGRANTS ARRIVED IN THE U.S. BETWEEN 1871-1920. WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1870’S AND 1880’S AND 1916-1920 THAT HAD AN IMPACT ON IMMIGRATION?

45 REMINDERS THE MARKETS ALLOCATE SCARCE RESOURCES. WHAT ARE THE SCARCE RESOURCES HERE? WHAT ROLE DO IMMIGRANTS PLAY? WHAT ROLE DO EMPLOYERS PLAY?

46 VISUAL 22.2: MIGRATION TO THE UNITED STATES WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN PUSH FACTORS? WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN PULL FACTORS? WHAT WERE THE EXPECTED BENEFITS AND COSTS FOR THE SWEDISH FARMERS? IF YOU HAD LIVED THEN, WOULD YOU HAVE MIGRATED TO THE U.S? EXPLAIN.

47 WHAT CAUSED A RETURN TO SWEDEN? WHY WOULD SUCCESSFUL SWEDISH FARMERS DECIDE TO RETURN TO SWEDEN? VIEW VISUAL 3 P5 P4 P3 P2 P1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 DEMAND SUPPLY 1 SUPPLY 2

48 CLOSURE IN WHAT WAYS CAN IMMIGRATION BE VIEWED AS ACTION TAKING PLACE WITHIN AN INTERNATIONAL MARKET OF BUYERS AND SELLERS? WHY DID IMMIGRANTS COME TO THE UNITED STATES?

49 WHY DO PEOPLE MOVE?

50 VISUAL 4.1 GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY What is significant about each figure and why do you think these changes happened? Figure 1? Figure 2? Figure 3?

51 TERMS Migration Immigrants Emigrants Benefits Costs Push and Pull

52 COSTS AND BENEFITS? BABYSIT FOR $6.00 FOR UNRULY KIDS OR BE WITH FRIENDS? CostsBenefits

53 PUSH AND PULL FACTORS PUSHPULL Costs of present location that drive people away Benefits of new location because it has advantages

54 REASONS FOR MIGRATION 1.You will be assigned one card from Activity 4.1. 2.You will answer questions on Activity 4.2. 3. Complete the chart based on reading. Push Factors for MigrationPull Factors for Migration

55 AND THE POINT IS?

56 1. demand supply goods and services profit 2. priceboomtown entrepreneur production

57 25 new families moved into your neighborhood and every neighborhood in your area? there were so many more people…what would you need?

58 25 new families moved into your neighborhood and every neighborhood in your area? there were so many more people…what would you need?

59 What do you see in these photos from 1901? What do you think these photos represent? Where is Beaumont, Longview?

60 Beaumont population grew from 9,000 people to 50,000 in three months. Breckinridge population went from 600 in 1918 to 30,000 in 1919 February 1931 Longview grew from 5,000 to 10,000 in 2 months How would their lives have changed????

61 1. You are going to be in six different groups. 2. Your group will read one primary source together. 3. What goods and services are limited in supply? 4. What factors caused an increased demand for G & S? 5. What new occupations developed? Why? 6. Are your lists of important goods and services the same as those 100 years ago? Explain. 7. What examples of entrepreneurship are there? What are examples of profit motive?

62 Share your answers with your expert group. Switch groups and share what you learned about the new story

63 1. Pretend that you live in a community that will soon have a huge boom in population. 2. It is a fictional town in the panhandle of Texas in Floyd County. There are 125 people now. You are close to highway 70. 3. Oil has been discovered and 1000 population is expected within 2 months

64 1. Floyd County: 125 to 1000 population in 2 months 2. One gas station which sells groceries (mainly milk and bread) 3. Work in small groups to: 1. A. List problems 2. B. What goods and services will they need? 3. C. Make a list of actions needed to help people deal with population boom.

65 . Please read your section of the article: http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/fracking/?gclid=CO7 FraGdp7ACFWLktgodhx46Yw http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/fracking/?gclid=CO7 FraGdp7ACFWLktgodhx46Yw Answer the following questions. 1. What is fracking? 2. Where is the fracking taking place? 3. What are three important points about what is happening 4. Using the map, what do you notice about locations?

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67 Read your segment of the Eagle Ford Fracking Article and provide pro and con arguments concerning fracking. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/eagle-ford- drilling-rush-may-boost-texas-tax-revenue-15-fold.html You will meet with several other students. Each person will explain pros and cons of fracking. Make a list of the pros and cons discussed. Next, choose one pro and one con. Make a list of what you think the next steps should be for these?

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69  http://www.texastribune.org/2012/07/13/midla nd-oil-boom-strains-housing-schools/ http://www.texastribune.org/2012/07/13/midla nd-oil-boom-strains-housing-schools/  $1,500 for a 400 square foot cabin in Midland  oil prices are hovering above $80 a barrel, more than double their level of early 2009, more than double their level of early 2009  Permian Basin accounts for 14 percent of the nation’s oil production. 14 percent of the nation’s oil production  population has swelled by about 8 percent in the last two years, to about 120,000. There is talk of eventually hitting the 150,000 mark. Unemployment in Midland in May stood at just 3.8 percent — the lowest for a metro area in the state — followed by nearby Odessa at 4.3 percent.talk of eventually hitting the 150,000 marklowest for a metro area in the state

70  oilfields offer generous pay, starting around $15 an hour  Besides subdivisions, cabins and RV parks, which are sometimes dubbed “man camps,” hotels are rapidly going up.  Modessa — it’s going to happen eventually  traffic fatality rate for the Permian Basin area in 2010 was 2.5 times higher than in the rest of the state  housing shortages, busy roads and bursting schools.

71  http://www.statesman.com/weblogs/salsa- verde/2014/aug/13/texas-fracking-has-included- diesel-fuel-according-/ http://www.statesman.com/weblogs/salsa- verde/2014/aug/13/texas-fracking-has-included- diesel-fuel-according-/  http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/fracking/ http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/tag/fracking/  http://earthjustice.org/features/texas-and-fracking http://earthjustice.org/features/texas-and-fracking  http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Texas_and_ fracking http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Texas_and_ fracking  http://stories.weather.com/fracking

72 Beaumont early 1900 Small towns 2000s What was the discovery? Compare the roles that technology played in the discovery. Compare the roles that geography played in the discovery. What impact did these discoveries have on urbanization? What were similar lifestyle and social changes and how the people handled them? What were differences in lifestyles and social changes and how people handled them?

73  What is the point?  What are the similarities and differences between Spindletop and today?

74 VE 4 LESSONS ON EARLY RECESSIONS Teaching Financial Crises: Lesson 1: A Comparison of the Panic of 1907 to the Crisis that Began in 2007 Lesson 2: How Economic Performance from 2007 to 2009 Compares to Other Periods in U. S. History Lesson 3: Manias, Bubbles, and Panics in World History Lesson 4: The Japan Comparison Understanding Economics in U.S. History Lesson 28: Money Panics and the Establishment of the Federal Reserve System Lesson 30: Whatdunnit? The Great Depression Mystery Lesson 31: Did the New Deal Help or Harm the Economy?

75 WHATDUNNIT? THE GREAT DEPRESSION MYSTERY LESSON The lesson will focus on the causes of the Great Depression. What do you know about the causes of the Great Depression? It began with a recession caused by a fall in spending. You will receive Occupation Cards from Activity 30.2. Do not reveal your occupations to others. Prosperity in the 1920’s was based on the sales of houses and automobiles because they could buy on the installment plan for the first time. When people bought homes and cars, what happened to the economy and jobs? What action did the government take as more cars and homes were sold? As more people worked, they spent more money, which caused a multiplier effect. What do you think that means? When the economy entered into a recession and people began to buy less, what happened with the multiplier effect?

76 OCCUPATION CARDS Machinery-producing industry workers stand up and then… Car sales people stand up and then… Auto factory workers stand up and then… Housing construction workers stand up and then… Furniture store workers and suppliers stand up and then… Clothing sales persons stand up and then… Restaurant workers stand up and then… Grocer y store workers stand up and then… Now, what happens if people have to replace their cars…

77 1929 RECESSION Visual 30.1: Explain the significance of the business cycle. What does it portray? Typical of a business cycle: what goes up must come down. But people thought the prosperity of the 1920’s would remain high. Why did the recession of 1929 become the Great Depression? As the Stock Market began to see increased prices in 1030, the cost of other goods began to fall and reduced money in people’s pockets. 1930 to 1933 Record closing of banks. See Visual 30.2. People lost their money. Regional Federal Reserve Banks would only loan to safe banks, so many failed. Gold standard tied hands of governments..

78 QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 1. Compare the information in Visual 30.2 and 30.3 2.Answer 30.3 Questions 3.Process: What are three things that consumers and the government could have done to lessen the impact of the Great Depression?

79 LESSON 31: THE NEW DEAL Teacher Background: 1.Roosevelt initiated his Bank Holiday the day after his inauguration, and it immediately began to restore confidence in the banking system. 2.Roosevelt pushed through the Federal Emergency Relief Act which gave states $500 million for projects that would provide people with jobs. Unemployment began to decline. 3. Federal work projects also helped the unemployment rate. 4. The government set prices in an effort to encourage production, but the higher prices meant people could not afford the products. 5. Social Security provided income to blind, old and others unable to work. 6. Agencies loaned people money so they could keep their farms and homes.

80 TODAY YOU WILL DETERMINE IF THE NEW DEAL HELPED OR HARMED THE GREAT DEPRESSION RECOVERY In 1933 Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in as president at the lowest point of the economy. Unemployment 28% Most banks had been closed to halt an “epidemic of bank failures.” Citizens were demanding the government take action. FDR promised “a New Deal for the American people” and followed through with legislation and work programs. Did the New Deal end the Great Depression? Unemployment began to decline in 1933, but the depression lingered on until after Pearl Harbor and the U. S. involvement in World War II.

81 HOW TO INCREASE DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES? Raise prices so that businesses could afford to do business. Higher prices mean higher wages for the workers in those fields. What happens to the consumer’s ability to pay for the higher prices?

82 ACTIVITY 31.1 PART I: SOME NEW DEAL POLICIES The goal of the New Deal policies was to encourage people to spend money. The more they spent, the more they were demanding products. The more products demanded, the more workers would be needed. The more workers meant more demand… So, please place an I if you think the policy will increase aggregate aggregate (total) demand. Place a D if you think it will decrease aggregate demand. Please answer the questions on page 374. Share answers with another person.

83 WHAT ROLE DID WORLD WAR II PLAY IN ENDING THE GREAT DEPRESSION? Was it the war itself of spending on the war? Would spending on the people have done the same thing?

84 GOALS OF THE NEW DEAL List examples from Visual 31.3 Relief: Providing immediate aid to people who had lost income Recovery: Restoring GNP to the full employment level Reform: Providing greater security or benefits for groups of people

85 ACTIVITY 31.2 THE US ECONOMY: 1928 TO 1940 Review the chart. What is the relationship among the Real GNP, unemployment rate, and federal spending? Did the New Deal achieve its goals? Why or why not?

86 EARLY REVOLUTION TO COLD WAR ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WARS:

87 VE4.5 RESOURCES UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS IN US HISTORY Lesson 7: The Costs and Benefits of American Independence Lesson 19: Economic Analysis of the Civil War Lesson 21: Growth of the US Economy After the Civil War Lesson 33: When the Boys Came Marching Home (WW1 and WW2) Lesson 34: Women in the U.S. Workforce (During and after WW2) World Trade After WW2 (The EU, NAFTA, WTO)

88 COLONIAL PROSPERITY How had the colonies prospered? 1. colonial economy grew 2. wealth accumulated 3. colonial population increased

89 LESSON 7: THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE Mystery The British Colonies in America Had grown and prospered. Since the colonists were Economically successful under British rule, why did they seek Independence?

90 THE GUIDE TO ECONOMIC REASONING: WHY DID THE COLONISTS REVOLT WHEN THEY WERE PROSPERING? 1. People Choose 2. People’s choices involve costs 3. People respond to incentives in predictable ways 4. People create economic systems that influence individual choices and incentives 5. People gain when they trade voluntarily 6. People’s choices have consequences that lie in the future In small groups, discuss your answers based on the 6 principals listed above.

91 DISCUSSION CONTINUES 1. What benefits did the colonists gain from membership in the British Empire? 2. What costs did the colonists incur as a result of British membership? 3. Why did the American colonists decide to fight for independence?

92 VOTE How many of you believe that the colonists were burdened by British tax policies? How would you test this hypothesis or claim? Theory: If the colonial tax rates were high, based on income levels of colonial America or higher than other members of the British Empire, this would be evidence to the claim that the colonists were burdened by British tax policies.

93 VISUAL 7.2: ANNUAL TAX BURDEN IN THE BRITISH EMPIRE IN 1765 Independently review Visual 7.2, then summarize your findings on the tax burden. In small groups, discuss the data found in Visual 7.2. What is your conclusion as to whether or not the colonists should fight for independence? Why is the date used to gather the tax data important in making your decision?

94 ACTIVITY 7.1 So, why did the colonists decide to go to war? As you read pages 93-94, answer the questions below. 1. What benefits did the colonists gain from membership in the British Empire? 2. What costs did the colonists incur as a result of membership in the British Empire? 3. Why did the American colonists decide to fight for independence?

95 IN CONCLUSION: Was it worth it for the colonies to fight against the British for independence? What did they gain by winning their independence? What did they lose?

96 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE CIVIL WAR Why do people often state that a war has positive effects on an economy? What would be the costs and benefits of fighting a war? Is it important to compare the costs and the benefits? Why or why not?

97 QUESTIONS Do you believe that the Civil War caused industrialization? Provide reasons for both sides of the argument. What is an opportunity cost? What were benefits of the Civil War? What were costs of the Civil War?

98 ACTIVITY 19.1. THE COUNTERFACTUAL: WHAT IF THE U.S. CIVIL WAR HAD NOT BEEN AVOIDED? 1. What is Lebergott’s belief about the impact of the Civil War on industrialization? 2. Give two reasons why you agree or disagree with his statement. 3. Without the war, would the U.S. have industrialized after 1865? 4. How would war resources have been otherwise used? 5. What may have been the opportunity cost of the Civil War?

99 PROCESS How did the Civil War stimulate the economy? How do you respond to this statement? Provide reasons for your response. We cannot confuse chronology with cause and effect. The Civil War did precede an unprecedented expansion of the U. S. economy during a period of industrialization. However, this does not mean that the Civil War caused the economy to grow. How would the economy have proceeded without the Civil War?

100 VE 4 LESSONS ON EARLY RECESSIONS Teaching Financial Crises: Lesson 1: A Comparison of the Panic of 1907 to the Crisis that Began in 2007 Lesson 2: How Economic Performance from 2007 to 2009 Compares to Other Periods in U. S. History Lesson 3: Manias, Bubbles, and Panics in World History Lesson 4: The Japan Comparison Understanding Economics in U.S. History Lesson 28: Money Panics and the Establishment of the Federal Reserve System Lesson 30: Whatdunnit? The Great Depression Mystery Lesson 31: Did the New Deal Help or Harm the Economy?

101 WHATDUNNIT? THE GREAT DEPRESSION MYSTERY LESSON The lesson will focus on the causes of the Great Depression. What do you know about the causes of the Great Depression? It began with a recession caused by a fall in spending. You will receive Occupation Cards from Activity 30.2. Do not reveal your occupations to others. Prosperity in the 1920’s was based on the sales of houses and automobiles because they could buy on the installment plan for the first time. When people bought homes and cars, what happened to the economy and jobs? What action did the government take as more cars and homes were sold? As more people worked, they spent more money, which caused a multiplier effect. What do you think that means? When the economy entered into a recession and people began to buy less, what happened with the multiplier effect?

102 OCCUPATION CARDS Machinery-producing industry workers stand up and then… Car sales people stand up and then… Auto factory workers stand up and then… Housing construction workers stand up and then… Furniture store workers and suppliers stand up and then… Clothing sales persons stand up and then… Restaurant workers stand up and then… Grocer y store workers stand up and then… Now, what happens if people have to replace their cars…

103 1929 RECESSION Visual 30.1: Explain the significance of the business cycle. What does it portray? Typical of a business cycle: what goes up must come down. But people thought the prosperity of the 1920’s would remain high. Why did the recession of 1929 become the Great Depression? As the Stock Market began to see increased prices in 1030, the cost of other goods began to fall and reduced money in people’s pockets. 1930 to 1933 Record closing of banks. See Visual 30.2. People lost their money. Regional Federal Reserve Banks would only loan to safe banks, so many failed. Gold standard tied hands of governments..

104 QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 1. Compare the information in Visual 30.2 and 30.3 2.Answer 30.3 Questions 3.Process: What are three things that consumers and the government could have done to lessen the impact of the Great Depression?

105 LESSON 31: THE NEW DEAL Teacher Background: 1.Roosevelt initiated his Bank Holiday the day after his inauguration, and it immediately began to restore confidence in the banking system. 2.Roosevelt pushed through the Federal Emergency Relief Act which gave states $500 million for projects that would provide people with jobs. Unemployment began to decline. 3. Federal work projects also helped the unemployment rate. 4. The government set prices in an effort to encourage production, but the higher prices meant people could not afford the products. 5. Social Security provided income to blind, old and others unable to work. 6. Agencies loaned people money so they could keep their farms and homes.

106 TODAY YOU WILL DETERMINE IF THE NEW DEAL HELPED OR HARMED THE GREAT DEPRESSION RECOVERY In 1933 Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in as president at the lowest point of the economy. Unemployment 28% Most banks had been closed to halt an “epidemic of bank failures.” Citizens were demanding the government take action. FDR promised “a New Deal for the American people” and followed through with legislation and work programs. Did the New Deal end the Great Depression? Unemployment began to decline in 1933, but the depression lingered on until after Pearl Harbor and the U. S. involvement in World War II.

107 HOW TO INCREASE DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES? Raise prices so that businesses could afford to do business. Higher prices mean higher wages for the workers in those fields. What happens to the consumer’s ability to pay for the higher prices?

108 ACTIVITY 31.1 PART I: SOME NEW DEAL POLICIES The goal of the New Deal policies was to encourage people to spend money. The more they spent, the more they were demanding products. The more products demanded, the more workers would be needed. The more workers meant more demand… So, please place an I if you think the policy will increase aggregate aggregate (total) demand. Place a D if you think it will decrease aggregate demand. Please answer the questions on page 374. Share answers with another person.

109 WHAT ROLE DID WORLD WAR II PLAY IN ENDING THE GREAT DEPRESSION? Was it the war itself of spending on the war? Would spending on the people have done the same thing?

110 GOALS OF THE NEW DEAL List examples from Visual 31.3 Relief: Providing immediate aid to people who had lost income Recovery: Restoring GNP to the full employment level Reform: Providing greater security or benefits for groups of people

111 ACTIVITY 31.2 THE US ECONOMY: 1928 TO 1940 Review the chart. What is the relationship among the Real GNP, unemployment rate, and federal spending? Did the New Deal achieve its goals? Why or why not?

112

113 If a presidential election were held tomorrow, what would be three issues of concern for you that would impact your vote? 1. 2. 3.

114 Ask a person who is at least 18 years of age the following question: Please indicate the three issues that are most important to you as you decide who will get your vote in a U. S. presidential election. 1. 2. 3. Due Date; ________________________________________________

115 1. What are the common answers? 2. What do you think about the answers? 3. How many are economic answers?

116 What do the indicators indicate about the economy?

117 Visual 8.1 Economic IndicatorsStatistics Based on Indicators Unemployment Rate Inflation rate Growth rate in per capita GDP Misery Index Growth rate in real GDP

118 1. Unemployment rate: the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. 2. Inflation rate: The percentage increase in the overall price level. 3. Real GDP: the value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars.

119 1. Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. 2. Real Per Capita GDP Growth Rate: The percentage change in real GDP per person

120 Think, Pair, Share 1. 1. What do you see on the chart? 2. 2. What year since 1957 has the unemployment rate been the highest? 3. 3. What year had the highest inflation rate? 4. What year had the highest Misery Index?

121 Did the incumbent win? Did the “in office” party win?

122 Unemployment Rate: The percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed Inflation Rate: The percentage increase in the overall price level Real GDP: The value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars. T WO S TATISTICS B ASED ON T HESE I NDICATORS Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Growth rate in real GDP per capita: The percentage change in the real GDP per person. LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS VISUAL 8.1 SOME KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY

123 A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of real GDP per capita is greater than 0% during the year of the election VISUAL 8.2 AN ECONOMIC RULE THAT DOES NOT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

124 A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of Real GDP per capita is greater than or equal to 2.5% during the year of the election. A Misery Index rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The Misery Index has not increased from the year prior to the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

125 VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Students: Write winners of elections. Apply rules.

126 VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

127 Predict who you think will win based on the data on Activity 8.2. Write two or more rules that demonstrated how to apply the data Share your rules and evaluate them.

128 Review the “rules” on 8.2 and 8.3. Which of these rules serve as a strong predictor? Which ones do not?

129 A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of Real GDP per capita is greater than or equal to 2.5% during the year of the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS The Real GDP per capita growth rule predicted 10 of last 13 elections…

130 A Misery Index rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The Misery Index has not increased from the year prior to the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS The Misery Index rule has predicted 11 out of the last 13 elections…

131 VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowth in Real GDP per Capita Unempl oyment Rate Infla -tion Rate Misery Index Growth Rule Misery Index Rule Candi dates Incum- bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012??? Obama vs. Romney

132 VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowth in Real GDP per Capita Unem ploy ment Rate Inflation Rate Misery Index Growth Rule Misery Index Rule Candida tes Incum bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012 Current Data ??? 0.6 ??? Romney Win Obama vs. Romne y ???

133 VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowth in Real GDP per Capita Unem Ploy ment Rate Inflation Rate Misery Index Growth Rule Misery Index Rule Candi dates Incum bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012 Current Data ??? 0.6 ??? 8.1 ??? 1.7 ??? 9.8Romne y Win Obama Win Obama vs. Romne y ???

134 Spring 2008

135 Spring 2012

136 Do economics play a role in presidential elections?

137 Do you believe the data we have studied shows that economic conditions impact presidential elections? Is it fair to blame or give credit to the incumbent ?

138 501(c)3 Texas wide nonprofit 1801 Allen Parkway, Houston, TX 77019 tcee@economicstexas.org www.economicstexas.orgwww.economicstexas.org * www.smartertexas.orgwww.smartertexas.org P: 713.655.1650 Presenter: Laura Ewing/President


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