1. Angler Heterogeneity and Species-Specific Demand for Recreational Fishing in the Southeast United States* Tim Haab (Ohio State University) Rob Hicks (College of William and Mary) Kurt Schnier (University of Rhode Island) John Whitehead (Appalachian State University) AFS Annual Meeting, Lake Placid, NY, Sept. 10-14, 2006 *MARFIN #NA06NMF4330055

2. Targeting behavior Compare various angler targeting models single-species aggregates of related species all species combined Our research will consider:

3. Species substitution Estimate angler willingness to substitute to other species or species groups when fishing quality or fishing management changes

4. Our research will: Estimate how willingness to substitute species might differ by angler type socioeconomic factors preferences gear type (i.e., mode)

5. Our research will: Provide species- specific estimates of economic value for: changes in fishing quality management (e.g., size limits, bag limits)

6. To date: We have identified the feasibility of demand modeling at the species level Estimated a prototype single species demand model

7. MRFSS 2000 LA to NC n = 70,781 Southeast 2000 (Limited Valuation Round) n = 42,079 Hook and line trips only (99%), day trips only (67%), delete missing values on key variables n = 18,709 Targets a species n=11,257

8. Fishing mode

9. State of intercept

10. Species 425 unique species caught by recreational anglers sampled by the MRFSS 15 species account for 82% of the targeting activity and 38% of the (type 1) catch

11. Top 5 target species of interest Spotted seatrout23% Red drum20% Dolphin6% King mackerel6% Spanish mackerel4%

12. Species groups Big game4% Bottom fish4% Flat fish5% Small game11% Snapper - grouper15%

13. Target Behavior Any SpeciesDolphin signp-valuesignp-value Intercept+p <.01- Years fished+p <.01- Boat owner+p <.01+ Shore mode-p <.01 Charter mode-p <.01+ Days fished+p <.01- Wave 4--p <.01 Wave 5+p <.01- Wave 6+p <.01- Gulf-p <.01-

14. Random Utility Models Conditional Logit U = X’β + e Mixed Logit U = X’δ + ε + e

15. Dependent variables Travel cost [party/charter] TC = charter fee + driving costs + time costs [private/rental] TC = driving costs + time costs Predicted (type 1) catch rate Depends on 5-year historic (type 1) catch rate Big (20” or greater) Small (less than 20”) Historic big game catch rate Number of MRFSS interview sites in the county

16. Conditional/Mixed Logit Party/charter boat Eight counties Private/rental boat Ten counties

17. Conditional Logit Results Coefft-stat Travel cost-0.054-25.13 Dolphin catch > 20"11.379.87 Dolphin catch < 20"1.159.11 Big game catch13.3014.38 Log(number of sites)0.101.67 Number of observations = 685 Number of alternatives = 18 Number of cases = 12330

18. Mixed Logit Results Number of observations = 685 Number of alternatives = 18 Number of cases = 12330 Coefft-stat Travel cost-0.080-16.45 Stand. Dev. of TC0.0356.33 Dolphin catch > 20"8.915.15 Dolphin catch < 20"1.215.09 Big game catch9.0012.49 Log(number of sites) 0.0360.47

19. Economic value of one fish per trip ConditionalMixed Big (> 20”)209.78110.82 Big + 1 sd194.54 Big - 1 sd77.48 Small (< 20”)21.2215.05 Small + 1 sd26.42 Small - 1 sd10.52

20. Policy analysis About 1.3 million dolphin trips in east coast of Florida The welfare loss of new 20” size limit is about: $15/fish/trip x 1.3 million trips = $19.5m (=/- 1 sd: $33.8m, $14.3m) These costs could be compared to the benefits …

21. Future work Incorporate 1997 data Consider species substitution models for: Dolphin King mackerel Red drum Spanish mackerel Snapper-grouper Aggregate species groups Policy analysis: size limits, bag limits

22. Contact John Whitehead Department of Economics Appalachian State University Boone, NC 28608 whiteheadjc@appstate.edu http://www.appstate.edu/~whiteheadjc

23. Nested Logit Party/charter Private/rental Eight counties Ten counties

24. Nested Logit Results Number of observations = 685 Number of alternatives = 18 Number of cases = 12330 Result Travel costOK Dolphin catch > 20"Not stat. sig. Dolphin catch < 20"OK Big game catchNot stat. sig. Log(number of sites)OK