1. Recreational Values of Gulf Grouper John Whitehead, Appalachian State University Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council Socioeconomic Panel Miami, Florida Thursday May 3, 2007

2. “Outline” An overview of the MARFIN project Decisions made to date about MRFSS data Progress report / future effort Preliminary results from the Gulf of Mexico reef fish model

3. Angler Heterogeneity and Species-Specific Demand for Recreational Fishing in the Southeast United States* Tim Haab (Ohio State University) Rob Hicks (College of William and Mary) Kurt Schnier (University of Rhode Island) John Whitehead (Appalachian State University) *MARFIN #NA06NMF4330055

4. Previous NMFS/MRFSS Recreational Valuation Research McConnell and Strand, 1994 Hicks, Steinbeck, Gautam, Thunberg, 1999 Haab, Whitehead, and Ted McConnell, 2000 Haab, Hicks, Whitehead, 2004

5. Targeting behavior Compare various angler targeting models single-species aggregates of related species all species combined We are considering:

6. Species substitution Estimate angler willingness to substitute to other species or species groups when fishing quality or fishing management changes

7. We will: Estimate how willingness to substitute species might differ by angler type socioeconomic factors preferences gear type (i.e., mode)

8. We will: Provide species- specific estimates of economic value for: changes in fishing quality management (e.g., size limits, bag limits)

9. To date: We have identified the feasibility of demand modeling at the species level Estimated two preliminary demand models

10. MRFSS 2000 LA to NC n = 70,781 Southeast 2000 (Limited Valuation Round) n = 42,079 Hook and line trips only (99%), day trips only (67%) [self-reported and < 200 miles one-way distance], delete missing values on key variables n = 18,709 +/- Targets a species n=11,257 +/-

11. Fishing mode

12. State of intercept

13. Species 425 unique species caught by recreational anglers sampled by the MRFSS 15 species account for 82% of the targeting activity and 38% of the (type 1) catch

14. Target Behavior (Prim1) sign Intercept+p <.01 Years fished+p <.01 Boat owner+p <.01 Shore mode-p <.01 Charter mode-p <.01 Days fished+p <.01 Wave 4- Wave 5+p <.01 Wave 6+p <.01 Gulf-p <.01

15. Traditional species groups Big game4% Bottom fish4% Flat fish5% Small game11% Snapper - grouper15%

16. Top target species of interest from RFP Red drum20% Dolphin6% King mackerel6% Spanish mackerel4%

17. Four demand models are being pursued Florida Atlantic Big Game Dolphin Big game fish Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish “Snappers” Shallow water groupers Red snapper

18. Four demand models … Inshore small game: Red drum, spotted seatrout, small game Offshore small game: King mackerel, spanish mackerel, small game

19. GOM Reef Fish Intercept Sites (n = 1224)

21. Target Species

22. “Snappers” (n = 160) gray snapper48.13% sheepshead23.75% white grunt11.88% black sea bass3.75% crevalle jack3.75% amberjack genus1.88% gray triggerfish1.88% snapper family1.25% yellowtail snapper1.25% atlantic spadefish0.63% blackfin snapper0.63% blue runner0.63% vermilion snapper0.63%

23. Shallow water groupers (n = 725) unidentified grouper73.38% gag17.38% red grouper6.07% grouper genus Mycteroperca2.9% black grouper0.28% Red snapper (n = 239)

24. Mode

25. Random Utility Models Conditional Logit Nested Logit Mixed Logit Latent Class Model

26. Conditional Logit Party/charter boat county sites Private/rental boat county sites

27. Nested Logit Party/charter Private/rental Counties

28. Variables 71 Species/Mode/Site choices Travel cost [party/charter] TC = charter fee + driving costs + time costs [private/rental] TC = driving costs + time costs Quality 5-year historic (type 1) targeted catch rate Predicted type 1 catch rate Number of MRFSS interview sites in the county

29. Conditional Logit Coefft-stat tcfee-0.038-30.58 snapper0.0777.41 grouper1.17829.71 redsnapper0.62822.87 Log(sites)0.76714.16

30. Mixed Logit Coefft-stat tcfee_M-0.070-28.04 tcfee_S0.0347.79 snapper0.0463.5 grouper1.1920.88 redsnapper0.7724.35 lognsite0.6611.93

31. Value of one additional fish per trip ConditionalMixed Snapper$2$1 Grouper$31$17 Red snapper$17$11

32. Recreational value of an allocation change $ = V x  x  H Value per fish = V Change in harvest =  Current harvest = H

33. Gag STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER997$16,944 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL1,193$20,276 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER10,503$178,551 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL29,971$509,512 LOUISIANA CHARTER304$5,161 LOUISIANA PRIVATE/RENTAL381$6,475

34. Red Grouper STATE MODE HH Value ALABAMA CHARTER447$7,602 ALABAMA PRIVATE/RENTAL104$1,765 WEST FLORIDA CHARTER7,659$130,203 WEST FLORIDA PRIVATE/RENTAL12,012$204,199

35. Contact John Whitehead Department of Economics Appalachian State University Boone, NC 28608 whiteheadjc@appstate.edu http://www.appstate.edu/~whiteheadjc