1. gws Impact of renewable energy on jobs and growth Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH Heinrichstr. 30 ° D – 49080 Osnabrück Tel.: + 49 (541) 40933-0 ° Fax: + 49 (541) 40933-11 Email: wolter@gws-os.de ° Internet: www.gws-os.dewww.gws-os.de Ulrike Lehr, Marlene Kratzat, Dietmar Edler, Christian Lutz

2. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 2 gws 2 Studies up to now, 3rd currently in progress Commissioned by German Federal Ministry of the Environment

3. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 3 gws What are the effects considered? Time (2004-2030) ? ? Investment and O&M Gross employment Trade -

4. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 4 gws How do we quantify these effects? Investment in RES O&M Investment in fossil fuel facilities Export of RES facilities Import of RES facilities Impact on employment Impact on economic indicators, balance Base year 2004: statistical data, survey, base year 2007 survey in progress Future: Scenarios Input-Output-Tables Macro-economic model: PANTA RHEI

5. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 5 gws Earlier studies have shown the economic impacts of an increase in RES compared to the current BAU case. But how much did the overall support of RES cost and what were the benefits?

6. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 6 gws The overall effect Economic effects = the difference between a quantity under one set of framework conditions compared to another set. Therefore: Construct reference scenario without any external support of RES. Has to be speculative! Base year of the development: 1995 Energy supply = fossil fuels in the ZERO-scenario Economic Indicators, energy demand and the phasing out of nuclear = BAU Wind and biomass from 1995 (2 TWh/a) contribute until 1025 reflecting their life time.

7. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 7 gws A ZERO support scenario

8. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 8 gws Scenarios The analysis is based upon the following set of scenarios: 1.a German target oriented scenario (TOS) that comes close to reach the national target of a 40% (2030) or 80% CO 2 reduction by 2050, respectively (BMU04, Leit06, BMU05) 2.a reference scenario that describes a frozen state, where no support of RES took place and which derives from the prolonged development up to 1995, 3.international scenarios (reference and dynamic current policy) (IEA- REF04, EREC-DCP04) and 4.the dominant scenario for the development of exports from Lehr et al. 2008 and BMU 2006.

9. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 9 gws Differences between TOS and ZERO

10. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 10 gws Data requirements to implement the new sector Production of facilities using renewable sources Information concerning the structure Important inputs Information on sub-suppliers Production plan Imports of inputs Exports Technical details of facilities Components and modules Engineering data Production in I-O-T Survey Technology data/ Economic data Additional Information from I-O-Tables unimportant inputs Structure of similar productions

11. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 11 gws Data: The survey Summer 2005 Approx. 1,100 interviews Institut für Sozialforschung und Kommunikation Telephone interviews Questions on: Employment (qualification, M/F, FT/PT) Turnover (national/international input, end product, regional aspects) Origin of inputs (type, region) Expectations on future development

12. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 12 gws

13. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 13 gws jobs

14. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 14 gws Shares of German firms in the world market (in %) In %2004201020202030201020202030 Cautious development Cautious optimistic development Power20,313,0810,006,4614,912,799,63 Heat9,368,626,935,459,267,836,54 Total17,0411,959,396,2413,4711,818,95

15. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 15 gws Gross employment (direct and indirect) 2004 bis 2030 Projection of productivity Projection of the direct/indirect ratio Scenarios 2004201020202030 Cautious Employees Production of facilities and biomass106.392167.803217.092210.971 O&M37.38946.86750.26455.779 Fuels13.29329.43239.33566.098 Sum157.074244.102306.691332.848 Cautious optimistic Production of facilities and biomass106.392186.595263.943293.133 O&M37.38946.86750.26455.779 Fuels13.29329.43239.33566.098 Sum157.074262.893353.541415.010

16. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 16 gws Net effects I Budget effect from additional costs of RES: e.g. PV

17. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 17 gws PeriodPPCHPTotal Add. Comp. TOS. 1995 – 20002.4785573.034 2001 – 20109.3367.51316.8498.298 2011 – 202015.04216.07831.1209.718 2021 – 20309.7169.94219.6589.019 Total 1995 – 203036.57234.09070.66230.069 Total investment for ZERO and comparison to TOS Net effects II

18. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 18 gws States 16 States Since 1998 World Trade Model (53 countries and regions) France... UK Japan INFORGE 59 Sectors Since 1995 Branches Since 1996 REGIO Since 2004 PANTA RHEI Energy und Environment Since 1997 USA GINFORS Seit 1998 Modeling Environment

19. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 19 gws PANTA RHEI – macro-econometric model Demand (consumption, Exports, Investment) Input demand ProductionImports energy prices Prices from production added value & employment Productivity income wages

20. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 20 gws Results 2010201520202030 GDP billion 95 15,3018,9526,3634,58 Gross production billion 95 38,5848,3263,3480,27 Private consumption billion 95 6,709,9613,3619,65 Government billion 95 1,451,672,553,54 Investment construction billion 95 0,751,021,541,59 Investment equipment billion 95 5,664,475,917,84 Export billion 95 7,0810,0213,2616,67 Import billion 95 6,598,4910,7015,33 Public debt billion -33,39-64,67-115,05-283,98 Average wage 0,140,170,190,21 Consumer price index 1995=100 0,350,370,17-0,20 Labor 1000 0,200,120,160,22 Source: BMU07 Changes of important economic indicators in the TOS – absolute values from ZERO

21. 2008 GWS mbH Seite 21 gws Thank you for your attention ! For more: www.gws-os.de lehr@gws-os.de www.gws-os.de lehr@gws-os.de