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WIOD 2010 28.05.2010, Vienna, Austria www.seri.at CO 2 Embodied in International Trade Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005 Martin Bruckner,

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Presentation on theme: "WIOD 2010 28.05.2010, Vienna, Austria www.seri.at CO 2 Embodied in International Trade Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005 Martin Bruckner,"— Presentation transcript:

1 WIOD , Vienna, Austria CO 2 Embodied in International Trade Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005 Martin Bruckner, Stefan Giljum, Christine Polzin (SERI), Christian Lutz, Kirsten Svenja Wiebe (GWS mbH)

2 2WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Production vs. consumption based Model and data Results Outline

3 3WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Production vs. consumption based Model and data Results Outline

4 4WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Production based (territorial) accounting Advantage: data availability UNFCCC (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) Consumption based accounting Modelling required Consumer responsibility and climate justice Consistency of climate policies Production vs. consumption based

5 5WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Production vs. consumption based Model and data Results Outline

6 6WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Model: True multi-regional IO-model Multi-directional trade countries, 2 regions (OPEC, RoW) 48 sectors Global Resource Accounting Model

7 7WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Data: 1.CO 2 emissions (IEA) 2.IO tables (OECD) 3.Trade data (OECD) Global Resource Accounting Model

8 8WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner 1.CO 2 emissions (IEA) IEA Energy Balances Emissions from fuel combustion Austria: 80% of GHG emissions Global Resource Accounting Model

9 9WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner 2.IO tables (OECD) IO tables for 29 OECD countries and 11 non-OECD countries Assumption of equal IO structures for 14 countries (where bilateral trade data were available) OPEC (structure of Indonesia), RoW (structure of Argentina) around the years 1995, 2000 and 2005 Data are interpolated for the years in between Global Resource Accounting Model

10 10WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner 3.Trade data (OECD) STAN Bilateral trade data (BTD) Trade shares for 61 trade partners 25 commodities + services Global Resource Accounting Model

11 11WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Production vs. consumption based Model and data Results Outline

12 12WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Strong carbon leakage Share of increase of emissions in non-Annex-B countries in the emission reductions in Annex-B countries (IPCC) Weak carbon leakage Emission imports from Annex-B to non-Annex-B countries (Peters and Hertwich 2008) Changes over time Carbon leakage

13 13WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Replacement of industries to countries with less strict environmental regulations Satisfaction of increased demand by countries with lower production costs Reasons for carbon leakage

14 14WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Carbon leakage Changes Carbon leakage (ktonnes)2,095,5693,602,5901,507,021 Share in global CO 2 emissions9.6%12.8%24.0%

15 15WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Imports and exports Top 3 Net-Importers and Exporters of carbon emissions

16 16WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Consumption based emissions

17 17WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Carbon trade balances

18 18WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner 1.Carbon leakage is increasing rapidly 2.Global targets of emission reduction will not be fulfilled without sharing responsibility between producers and consumers. 3.International co-operation will depend on accepting consumer responsibility. Conclusions and policy recommendations

19 19WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner Thank you! Contact details web:


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