1. Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean 5 th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting 19 – 23 April 2004 Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission usarc@acsalaska.net Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany (BSH) Hamburg, Germany

2. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council - Evaluate: climate variability, climate change, and increased UV and their consequences - Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios - Project future Arctic changes for: 2020, 2050, and 2080 - Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries - Scientific report & synthesis released early 2005

3. “The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change” (from ACIA)  Increases in winter surface air temperatures  Increases in precipitation  Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground  Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness  Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems  Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion  Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean  Warming of Arctic oceanic waters  Record low levels of stratospheric ozone  Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

4. Sea Ice Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coverage a decrease of coverage Decrease is largest in largest in summer summer Decrease is Decrease is largest since largest since late 1980s late 1980s Sea Ice Extent (km 2 )

5. 16 Sept. 2002

6. 16 Sept. 2003

7. 16 Sept. 2002 16 Sept. 2003

8. Challenges of the Canadian Archipelago and the Northwest Passage  GCM resolution constraints  High interannual variability of ice coverage

9. Regional Eastern Arctic Canadian Ice Service (2004) Km 2 )

10. Regional Eastern Arctic l l Canadian Ice Service (2004) km 2

11. Regional Western Arctic Canadian Ice Service (2004) (km 2 )

13. Climate model projections of sea ice extent : 2000 - 2100 2000 - 2100 MarchSeptember MARSEPT

15. The Northern Sea Route INSROP (1999)

18. Northern Sea Route : Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100 Year

20. Summary Points - Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real. - GCMs indicate steadily increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic. - Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century. - Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the navigation season. - Possibility for marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050. - Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic regional models. - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic climate trends & consequences.

21. Relevant Upcoming Events  ACIA Symposium (9-12 November 2004)  ACIA & Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Ministerial, 15-18 November 2004)  Experts Meeting: Scott Polar Research Institute (September 2004)  International Conference - Future Arctic Marine Transport (Anchorage, Spring/Summer 2005)