1. Soil Moisture datasets for seasonal and decadal forecast Stefano Materia, Andrea Borrelli 22-10-2012

2. The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System is initialized with the “closest to reality” state of the ocean and atmosphere. We still miss the initial condition of the land surface component, which was found to be a crucial predictor. The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) Radiative forcings GHGs & SO4 Land SurfaceAtmosphere Ocean Sea Ice Atmospheric Initial conditions Global Model component Near-Observational inputs Ocean initial condition Land surface initial condition

3. 3 Development of a new soil moisture dataset A joint effort between WP1 & WP2 From ESA CCI soil moisture (microwave remote sensing) To a gridded surface soil moisture: SM-ECVhyb To a 3-dimensional soil moisture dataset: SM-ECVplus

4. 4 SM-ECVplus: Climatology and variability Fraction of soil water

5. EOF analysis 5

6. Soil moisture datasets for sensitivity analysis 6 Modeled soil moisture, obtained through observed meteorological forcing, is being used to test the sensitivity of seasonal and decadal forecast to soil moisture initialization

7. Interannual variability of soil moisture in Sahel region 7