1. An introduction to the IMCORE climate change project Dr Rhoda Ballinger

2. Topics to be considered: Introduction to IMCORE The Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme Progress update

3. 1. Introduction to IMCORE

4. IMCORE: Innovative Management of Europe’s Changing Coastal Resource AIMS: To promote a transnational, innovative & sustainable approach to reducing the impacts of climate change on coastal resources To develop adaptation strategies for coastal sites across North West Europe To demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climate change adaptation including: – High tech visualisation techniques – Futures scenario building

5. IMCORE partners Interreg IVb North West Europe project Partners: – Universities; local authorities; coastal networks – Builds on the COREPOINT Expert Couplets & work

6. IMCORE outputs Multimedia Distance Learning Tool – Visualisation tool kit – Related training material – Coastal management data base Adaptive Management Strategies for each case study

7. 2.Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme

8. Severn IMCORE activities SECCRAG: Science base Stocktake of corporate responses to climate change ‘Futures’ scenario building Education materials

9. SECCRAG: Science base Severn Citation Database development SECCRAG May workshop – Preliminary review of the state of the science – Way forward proposed UKCP09 Review

10. Stocktake: Estuary Planning Review Phase I – Corporate Responses – How are planning bodies embedding climate change into planning practices? Phase II – Climate Change science base – What climate change science do planning authorities use/want/need? Planners Workshop (Spring 2010) – Estuary-wide cohesion – Coordinated approaches to C.C. adaptation

11. ‘Futures’ – Scenario building Structure how we can plan uncertainties Portray several different possible/desirable ‘futures’ Enable multisectoral thinking ‘outside the box’ Glamorgan University input

12. 3. Preliminary findings

13. Science base: UKCP09 review Provides – Climatic trends to date – Climatic predictions to 2100 – UK National scale possible to interrogate at local/regional levels – Low, medium and high emissions scenarios http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ Changes in seasonal means (  C) 1960-90 to 2070 - 2100

14. UKCP09 Sea level rise Sea level around UK rose by 1mm/yr during 20 th Century Rate increased during 1990s and 2000s Phillips (2009) prediction: 2.4mm/yr for Bristol Channel Sea Level Rise Plot for Chepstow Sea Level Data 12km Grid

15. UKCP09 Storm surge data Small increase in storm surge ht (0.8mm/yr) – LESS than predictions in UKCP02 Does not include changes in sea level Note wave height changes: – small increase in winter significant wave height – winter max wave height is more uncertain Storm Surge Data 20km Grid 50 yr trend in Surge Return Level mm/yr

16. Planning Review: Stocktake of Severn-side plans & policies Main CategoriesSub Categories Climate ChangeMitigation considerations (other than C02) Adaptation considerations Carbon management Supplementary Planning Guidance/ Documents Other policies Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Development in flood risk areas Development exacerbating flooding Development and coastal erosion Ref. to Shoreline Management Plans Supplementary Planning Guidance/ Documents Other policies Estuary ManagementRef. to Severn Estuary Partnership Ref. to Severn Estuary Strategy &/or other estuary wide initiatives Supplementary Planning Guidance/ Documents Other policies Welsh Planning Bodies / GroupsEnglish Planning Bodies Bridgend County Borough CouncilForest of Dean District Council Vale of Glamorgan CouncilStroud District Council Cardiff City CouncilTewkesbury Borough Council Newport City CouncilGloucester City Council Monmouthshire County CouncilGloucestershire County Council South East Wales Strategic Planning GroupBristol City Council North Somerset District Council Sedgemoor District Council West Somerset District Council Somerset County Council South West Regional Development Agency

17. Initial findings Local Authorities play a key role in preparing for climate change (Service Providers, Corporate Managers, Community Leaders) All signed up to Nottingham / Welsh Declaration on Climate Change & Energy Efficiency 6 authorities adopted climate change strategies (+ 2 underway) No real sense of Severn Estuary or estuary cohesion

18. Policy Trends Climate change – explicit policies being developed in emerging plans Flood risk – many policies in adopted and emerging plans (15 of 17) Coastal zone – dropping off of policies within emerging plans Shoreline Management Plans – few references in adopted plans (5 of 17); none in emerging plans Severn Estuary Strategy – few references in adopted plans (4 of 17); none in emerging plans

19. 4. Final comments

20. IMCORE: future development Work in progress Exciting opportunities for partnership working through IMCORE e.g. Climate Change Adaptation – The Gloucestershire Approach (National Indicator (NI) 188 – Planning to adapt to climate change) 2010 events – SECRRAG – Planners’ meeting – Futures workshop – Beacons Schools events Dr Rhoda Ballinger BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk IMCORE: http://imcore.eu/