1. AQ Tolerance Proposal Mod 209 – August 2008

2. Page 2Theme Date Department AQ Tolerances  Provide a view of appropriate tolerances for AQ validation  Looking only to exclude true outliers to minimise magnitude of failures  Data used is from NDM sample information to remove any Shipper impact

3. Page 3Theme Date Department EUC Band 1 – SSP population  Sample of 2310 sites comparing their consumption changes across three years  Produces a view of an expected AQ change if the AQ calculation reflected actual consumption

4. Page 4Theme Date Department EUC Band 1  Variation is consistent year on year  Bulk of the population varies between ± 25%  +100% to -80% captures 99.2%-99.8% of the changes  Suggest these may be appropriate tolerances for EUC band 1

5. Page 5Theme Date Department LSP EUC Bands  Current EUC band break points are, in KWh:  EUC band 2 = 73,200 to 293,000  EUC band 3 = 293,001 to 732,000  EUC band 4 = 732,001 to 2,196,000  EUC band 5 = 2,196,001 to 5,860,000  EUC band 6 = 5,860,001 to 14,650,000  EUC band 7 = 14,650,001 to 293,000,000  EUC band 8 = 293,000,001 to 58,600,000  EUC band 9 ignored as these should be DM sites

6. Page 6Theme Date Department LSP Bands 2-4  Sample of 5,576 sites comparing their consumption changes across three years  Produces a view of an expected AQ change if the AQ calculation reflected actual consumption, as for SSP

7. Page 7Theme Date Department EUC Band 2-4  Variation is consistent year on year  Bulk of the population varies between ± 50%  +100% to -80% captures 98.8%-98.9% of the changes

8. Page 8Theme Date Department Outliers for bands 2-4  Number of outliers for bands 2-4 above 100% only varies slightly by band  (Shows % of those failing 100% tolerance by EUC band)  However the % the outliers vary by is different

9. Page 9Theme Date Department Tolerances for bands 1-4  Suggested tolerances are:  Band 1+100%-80%  Band 2+300%-80%  Band 3+200%-80%  Band 4+200%-80%  As these tolerances are similar and a small percentage of the population is outside band 4 suggest extending band 4 to cover all other EUC bands