1. Unit 19 Probability of one event Presentation 1Simple Probability Presentation 2Probabilities Presentation 3Determining Probabilities Presentation 4Misconceptions

2. Unit 19 Probability of one event Simple Probability

3. Discuss which of the following statements best fit the statement a.It will snow in New York tomorrow b.It will rain in Kingston on Saturday c.You will be late to school tomorrow d.There will be a hurricane in Jamaica next week e.Jamaica will win the Men’s 4 x 100m gold medal at the London 2012 Olympic Games CertainVery Unlikely LikelyUnlikelyVery Unlikely Impossible

4. Unit 19 Probability of one event You have finished viewing: Simple Probability Return to front slide Presentation 1Simple Probability Presentation 2Probabilities Presentation 3Determining Probabilities Presentation 4Misconceptions

5. Unit 19 Probability of one event Probabilities

6. a.If you toss a fair coin, what is the probability that it lands HEADS up? b.The probability that it will rain tomorrow is What is the probability that is will not rain tomorrow? c.The probability of the Air Jamaica plane arriving late at Kingston is 0.15 What is the probability of it not being late? d.A school basketball team play 20 matches a year. The probability that they win any match is i.What is the probability that they do not win a match? ii.How many matches can they expect to win a year? e.It has been estimated that the probability that a person has blue eyes is Is it true that the probability that a person has brown eyes is ? 0∙85 12 NO

7. Unit 19 Probability of one event You have finished viewing: Probabilities Return to front slide Presentation 1Simple Probability Presentation 2Probabilities Presentation 3Determining Probabilities Presentation 4Misconceptions

8. Unit 19 Probability of one event Determining Probabilities

9. a)When you roll a fair dice, what is the probability of obtaining: a)A ‘five’, b)An even number, c)A ‘four’ or a ‘five’ ? b)A bag of sweets contains 6 mints and 4 chocolates. One sweet is taken at random from the bag. What is the probability that this sweet is a)A mint, b)A chocolate ?

10. Unit 19 Probability of one event You have finished viewing: Determining Probabilities Return to front slide Presentation 1Simple Probability Presentation 2Probabilities Presentation 3Determining Probabilities Presentation 4Misconceptions

11. Unit 19 Probability of one event Misconceptions

12. The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not correct. Explain why. Misconception 1 I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3 times and got 3 Heads. It is more likely to be Tails than Heads if I spin it again. Misconception 1 I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3 times and got 3 Heads. It is more likely to be Tails than Heads if I spin it again. Misconception 2 Village United plays Boys Town in the National Premier League. Village United can win, lose or draw, so the probability that Village United will win is ⅓ Misconception 2 Village United plays Boys Town in the National Premier League. Village United can win, lose or draw, so the probability that Village United will win is ⅓ Misconception 4 It is harder to throw a six than a three with a dice Misconception 4 It is harder to throw a six than a three with a dice Misconception 5 It is not worth choosing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the Jamaica Lottery as this is less likely to occur than other combinations Misconception 5 It is not worth choosing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the Jamaica Lottery as this is less likely to occur than other combinations Misconception 3 There are 3 red beads and 5 blue beads in a bag. I pick a bead at random. The probability that it is red is Misconception 3 There are 3 red beads and 5 blue beads in a bag. I pick a bead at random. The probability that it is red is

13. The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not correct. Explain why. Misconception 6 My Grandfather smoked 20 cigarettes a day for 60 years and lived to be 90, so smoking can’t be bad for you Misconception 6 My Grandfather smoked 20 cigarettes a day for 60 years and lived to be 90, so smoking can’t be bad for you Misconception 8 In Treasure Beach it will either rain or not rain tomorrow. So the probability that it will rain is 0∙5. Misconception 8 In Treasure Beach it will either rain or not rain tomorrow. So the probability that it will rain is 0∙5. Misconception 7 I have thrown an unbiased dice 12 times and not yet got a six. The probability of getting a 6 on my next throw is more than Misconception 7 I have thrown an unbiased dice 12 times and not yet got a six. The probability of getting a 6 on my next throw is more than

14. Unit 19 Probability of one event You have finished viewing: Misconceptions Return to front slide Presentation 1Simple Probability Presentation 2Probabilities Presentation 3Determining Probabilities Presentation 4Misconceptions