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**What is Probability Learning Intention Success Criteria**

To understand the likelihood line and calculating simple probability. Understand the term likelihood line and probability. Decide where certain events should lie on the likelihood line. 3. Calculate simple probabilities.

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**What is Probability Likelihood Line 1 0.5**

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to happen 1 0.5 Impossible Evens Certain Not very likely Very likely Seeing a butterfly In July School Holidays Winning the Lottery Baby Born A Boy Go back in time

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**What is Probability Likelihood Line 1 0.5 Start Impossible Evens**

Impossible Evens Certain Not very likely Very likely Going without Food and drink for a year. A year when it does not rain Toss a coin That land Heads The answer to = 9 It will Snow in winter Click the statement which is Impossible Toss a coin That land Heads It will Snow in winter The answer to = 9 A year when it does not rain Going without Food and drink for a year. Start

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**Calculating Probability**

Probability can be thought of as a simple fraction or decimal. It always lies between 0 and 1. 0 meaning impossible ( could not happen) 1 meaning certain ( will definitely happen) number of favourable outcomes Probability of an event happening= number of possible outcomes

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**Heads or Tails The coin was spun twenty times. Result …..**

Number of Heads 9 Number of Tails 11 About as many Heads as Tails The likelihood of getting a Head is evens … or … half …. Or 0.5 Heads or Tails Restart

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**Head or Tail 100 You tossed a coin and got a HEAD**

You still have an even chance of getting a HEAD next time It is only when you toss the coin a large number of times that the results shout “even” themselves out 100 Experiment … Number of times to toss coin 100 Number of Heads 58 (-) Ans On Try Again C √ Number of Tails 42 7 8 9 x You are as likely to get a Heads as you are to get Tails 4 5 6 ÷ 1 2 3 - . = +

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**Could win right away but much more likey to lose**

Rolling a Dice When you roll a dice you could get ….. To win a game you need a six. How likely is this ? To win Could get Win ( Favourable ) Possible Could win right away but much more likey to lose

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**How to calculate Probability of “Heads”**

Favourable What you want Possible What could happen Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict how likely an event ( head on a coin ) is to happen Favourable Outcomes 1 Probability = = Possible Outcomes 2 Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ? The line shows that there is an even chance of getting a head Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen ) Will Happen Will not Happen 1 2 1

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**Probability = = Probability of a six Favourable Outcomes 1**

Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict how likely an event ( like rolling a six ) is to happen Favourable Outcomes 1 Probability = = Possible Outcomes 6 Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ? The line shows that getting a six immediately is unlikely but possible Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen ) Will Happen Will not Happen 1 6 1

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**Getting an even number on a dice**

Favourable Outcomes 3 1 = = Probability = Possible Outcomes 6 2 Will Happen Will not Happen 3 6 1 You have an equal chance of getting an even number

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**Colour from a bag Blue beads Probability of a Blue Favourable =**

Possible = (-) Ans On C √ Blue 4 Orange 1 7 8 9 x 4 Red 3 4 5 6 ÷ Yellow 1 2 3 - Click beads to put in bag Click Name to select colour New Example . = +

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**Spinner 1 to 16 Probability of a Odd 8 7 Favourable 8 = 9 6 16**

Possible 10 5 1 = 11 4 2 12 3 Favourable 13 2 (-) Ans On 15 3 1 5 C √ 14 1 15 7 9 11 13 7 8 9 x 16 4 5 6 ÷ 1 2 3 - spin Next Example . = + Win

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**Calculating Probability**

Example : A boy tossed a coin. What is the probability that it is heads. Example : There are 3 red and 4 green balls in a bag. What is the probability a green ball is picked. Favourble Possible

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**= = = Choosing from 4 cards The Heart and Diamonds are Red**

The Club and Spades are Black Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes 2 1 = = Probability of a Red = 4 2 Probability of a Spade = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes 1 = 4

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Pack of Cards A pack of cards should have 52 cards. 4 suits ( sets ) of 13 cards 13 cards with SPADES on them. SUIT of cards Ace of CLUBS can be worth 1 or 11 Queen of HEARTS is a FACE card. Worth 10 2 of DIAMOND is the lowest value diamond

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**= = = Pack of Cards : A Heart Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes 13**

Probability of Heart = = = 52 4 One row out of four

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**Pack of Cards : Face Card**

Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes 12 3 Probability of Face Card = = = 52 13 Three columns out of thirteen A Face Card shows a characters face … J, Q or K

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**Pack of Cards : Less than four**

Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes Probability of a number less than 4 8 2 = = = 52 13 Two columns out of Thirteen Ace High … Ace counts as 11

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(-) Ans On C √ 7 8 9 x (-) √ C x ÷ 4 5 6 ÷ 5 6 7 8 9 + - On 1 2 3 - 1 2 3 4 . = Ans . = +

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