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What is Probability Learning Intention Success Criteria 1.Understand the term likelihood line and probability. likelihood line and probability. 2.Decide where certain events should lie on the likelihood line. likelihood line. 3.Calculate simple probabilities. 1.To understand the likelihood line and calculating simple probability.

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What is Probability 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible Not very likely Very likely Winning the Lottery School Holidays Baby Born A Boy Seeing a butterfly In July Go back in time Likelihood Line Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to happen

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What is Probability Likelihood Line 10.50 CertainEvensImpossible Not very likely Very likely A year when it does not rain The answer to 2 + 7 = 9 Toss a coin That land Heads It will Snow in winter Going without Food and drink for a year. Click the statement which is Impossible Start

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Calculating Probability Probability can be thought of as a simple fraction or decimal. It always lies between 0 and 1. 0 meaning impossible ( could not happen) 1 meaning certain ( will definitely happen) number of favourable outcomes Probability of an event happening= number of possible outcomes

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Heads or Tails The coin was spun twenty times.Result ….. Number of Heads Number of Tails 9 11 About as many Heads as Tails The likelihood of getting a Head is evens … or … half …. Or 0.5 Heads or Tails Restart

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Head or Tail Experiment … Number of times to toss coin Number of Heads Number of Tails 58 42 You are as likely to get a Heads as you are to get Tails Try Again You tossed a coin and got a HEAD You still have an even chance of getting a HEAD next time It is only when you toss the coin a large number of times that the results shout “even” themselves out 100 0 123 456 789 C. ÷ x 0 + On ² - Ans = √ (-)

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Rolling a Dice When you roll a dice you could get ….. To win a game you need a six. How likely is this ? To win Could get Win ( Favourable ) Possible Could win right away but much more likey to lose

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How to calculate Probability of “Heads” Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict how likely an event ( head on a coin ) is to happen Probability = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 1 2 Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ? Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen ) 0 1 1 2 Will not Happen Will Happen The line shows that there is an even chance of getting a head Favourable What you want Possible What could happen

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Probability of a six Probability is a Maths term which allows you to predict how likely an event ( like rolling a six ) is to happen Probability = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 1 6 Probability expressed as a fraction. Why ? Fractions go from 0 ( unlikely to happen) to 1 ( must happen ) 0 1 1 6 Will not Happen Will Happen The line shows that getting a six immediately is unlikely but possible

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Getting an even number on a dice Probability = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 3 6 = 1 2 0 1 3 6 Will not Happen Will Happen You have an equal chance of getting an even number

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Colour from a bag Blue Orange Yellow Red 0 123 456 789 C. ÷ x 0 + On ² - Ans = √ (-) 41 43 Probability of a Blue = Favourable Possible = New Example Click beads to put in bag Click Name to select colour Blue beads

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Spinner 1 to 16 spin 4 Win 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 Probability of a = Favourable Possible 8 16 = 1 2 31 0 123 456 789 C. ÷ x 0 + On ² - Ans = √ (-) 15 79 5 1311 Favourable Odd Next Example

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Calculating Probability Example : A boy tossed a coin. What is the probability that it is heads. Example : There are 3 red and 4 green balls in a bag. What is the probability a green ball is picked. Possible Favourble

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Choosing from 4 cards Probability of a Red = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 2 4 = 1 2 The Heart and Diamonds are Red The Club and Spades are Black Probability of a Spade = Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 1 4

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Pack of Cards 13 cards with SPADES on them. SUIT of cards Ace of CLUBS can be worth 1 or 11 Queen of HEARTS is a FACE card. Worth 10 2 of DIAMOND is the lowest value diamond A pack of cards should have 52 cards. 4 suits ( sets ) of 13 cards

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Pack of Cards : A Heart Probability of Heart Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 13 52 = 1 4 = One row out of four

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Pack of Cards : Face Card Probability of Face Card Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 12 52 = 3 13 = Three columns out of thirteen A Face Card shows a characters face … J, Q or K

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Pack of Cards : Less than four Probability of a number less than 4 Favourable Outcomes Possible Outcomes = 8 52 = 2 13 = Two columns out of Thirteen Ace High … Ace counts as 11

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0 123 456 789 C. ÷ x 0 + On ² - Ans = √ (-) 01234 56789 C. ÷x 0 + On ² - Ans = √ (-)

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