1. International Workshop for GODAR WESTPAC Global Ocean Data Archeology and Rescue: Scientific Needs from the Carbon Cycle Study in the Ocean Toshiro Saino Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University and Hydrographic Department, Japan Coast Guard 05 Mar 2002 @HD/JCG

2. International Workshop for GODAR WESTPAC Oceanographic Data are - taken on site aboard ships. - Precious and Expensive. - containing “Facts” at the time of the observation. - obtained with methods varying with time, group, etc., and hence meta data are important. - suffering from under-sampling problem.

3. International Workshop for GODAR WESTPAC Under Global Climate Change Carbon Cycle in the Oceans is an important part of the Life Support System of the Planet Earth. Prediction of Variability is required. In Old Good Days Most Carbon Cycle Studies were to get mechanistic understanding of the processes. And Qualitative, or semi-quantitative, description of the system was obtained.

4. International Workshop for GODAR WESTPAC

6. Future Research on Biological and Chemical Aspects of Global Change in the Ocean (Ocean Future) Issue 1: What controls the time-varying biogeochemical state of the ocean system and how will it change in response to Global Change? Issue 2: How will marine food webs respond to Global Change? Issue 3: How does the accumulation of carbon in the ocean respond to global environmental change?

7. International Workshop for GODAR WESTPAC Key Words : ecosystem response and feedback to Climate Change temporal and spatial variability coastal region and human activity quantitative estimation and/or prediction Needs: Globally networked High Frequency & Long Term Time Series Observations. Historical Data Sets for Variability longer than Decadal Time Scale.

8. Wind stress 1950-1990 Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre

9. Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre Variation of Surface Mixed Layer, Wind Stress and Monsoon Index in Winter The winter MLD varies with wind stress

10. Deeper MLD ＞ Higher Nitrate ＞ Lower Chl a in winter ＞ Higher Chl a in spring Stronger Wind Increased Productivity Standing Stocks Flux Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre Variation of MLD, Nitrate, and  Chl in winter and  Chl in spring

11. Different behavior of Nitrate and Phosphate. What happened? Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre Variation of MLD, Nitrate, Phosphate and  Chl in winter

12. Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre Ecosystem Change in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Gyre (Results from HOT observation: D.M.Karl) Appearance of Nitrogen fixer shifted Ecosystem from N-limited to P-limited

13. Appears only in 1980s in the Subtropical Mode Water Nitrogen Fixation? Why is it returned? Long term change in lower trophic level environments in the Western subtropical Pacific Gyre Frequency of NO3/PO4 >16 waters appearance (upper) and water density of its appearance (bottom): Left; winter, Right; spring

14. Long term change in AOU and nutrients in the western subarctic Pacific

16. Microbial Loop dominance Grazing Chain dominance PM line Sts. 4,5,6 polar front Fig. 1 Ecosystem change in the Japan Sea 70s - 90s CO 2 From.. To DOM CO 2 Year (+1900) -40 -20 0 20 40 7375777981838587899193959799 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 Chl a Diatom cell Chl a (mg m -2 ) Log10(cell l -1 +1) WT (C) 0 m 100 m 200 m -4 -2 0 2 4 Fig.2 Water temperature anomaly at 3 depth PO 4 -40 -20 0 20 40 -0.1 0 0.1 Chl a (mg m -2 ) PO 4 (µM) Chl a Fig. 3 MLD mean PO 4 and Chl a Fig. 4 Diatom cell number and Chl a Water stratification enhanced Phytoplankton quality change (small, less nutritious cell) Nutrients depletion earlier in spring What happened in 80s? Food web Structure change? 5 seasons running mean spring