1. Effect Analysis of the Industrial Policy of ShanDong Province REN, Lijun School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shandong University,Jinan, Shandong, China Shandong University,Jinan, Shandong, China E-mail: ljren@sdu.edu.cn IAIA’07 Seoul, 7 Jun 2007

2. Introduction Introduction Economic effect analysis Economic effect analysis Social effect analysis Social effect analysis Environmental effect analysis Environmental effect analysis Outline of presentation

3. Location Shan Dong Province 15.6 sq. km

4. 1. Economic effect analysis Average annual growth rate of economic indicators (%) Item ShandongChina 1952 - 1965 1965 - 1978 1978 - 1990 1990 - 2002 1952 - 1965 1965 - 1978 1978 - 1990 1990 - 2002 GDP5.47.717.217.67.45.914.615.5 Per capita GDP4.05.815.716.85.53.612.914.4 Add value of agriculture3.14.515.610.45.13.514.210.2 Add value of industry10.211.614.819.112.48.712.917.3 Investment in fixed assets12.612.717.016.813.19.113.316.6 Total value of imports and exports 4.715.514.218.84.613.814.215.3 Utilization of foreign capital---- 30.528.9---------- 9.5915.0 Local government revenue6.111.04.515.47.66.98.39.7

5. Industrial structure of Shandong Province Year Composition of GDP by industries PrimaryindustrySecondaryindustryTertiaryindustryLightindustryHeavyindustry 195265.818.116.184.815.2 196549.033.617.460.339.7 197833.352.913.845.154.9 199028.142.129.850.849.2 200213.250.336.548.951.1

6. 2. Social effect analysis Social effect indicators analysis of different periods Item Proportion of Shandong in China 19521965197819902002 Per capita total retail sales of consumer goods 0.860.730.840.851.10 Annual pre capita Income of rural households ------0.761.021.19 Per capita balance of saving deposit 0.580.720.921.100.95 Per capita area of paved roads ---------2.792.2 Per capita building space in city area ------1.51.561.63

7. proportion of employed persons by three industries Year Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry 198078.8512.278.88 198568.4819.8111.72 199063.6922.8213.23 199548.3222.4829.30 200043.5922.2434.17 200241.3623.1535.49

8. The key of industrial policy Main impacts on Environment agriculture soil erosion desertification grassland degradation Heavy industry “ Steel first ” energy consumption increased 21 times in the period Develope light and heavy industry at the same time Showed in Fig 1949 ～ 1952 1952 ～ 1978 3. Environmental effect analysis 1978 ～ 2002

9. Energy consumption

10. the trend of environmental indicators of Shandong SO 2 soot

11. Conclusion Shandong’s industrial structure was far away from the consummate structure. Shandong’s industrial structure was far away from the consummate structure. Shandong province should pay more attention on tertiary industry development and promote the industrial structural optimization. Shandong province should pay more attention on tertiary industry development and promote the industrial structural optimization.

12. Thank you !