1. Regional Climate February 2011 1 William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP With contributions from many EMC Staff …… Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with an Emphasis on Climate

2. Regional Climate February 2011 2 The EMC Mission…..  Develop and Enhance numerical guidance –Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via : Scientific upgrades Optimization Additional observations  Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations –Transform & integrate Code Algorithms Techniques –Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation  Maintain operational model suite –The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems –Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes EMC location within the funnel In response to operational requirements: 45% 25% 30%

3. Regional Climate February 2011 3 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Global Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane WRF & GFDL Waves Real Time Ocean Forecast System Space Weather Tsunami

4. Regional Climate February 2011 4 Time of the day (utc) Number of Nodes 00 06 1218 Development Work January 2010 High Water Mark Fence Production Suite on Supercomputer

5. Regional Climate February 2011 5 Time of the day (utc) Number of Nodes 00 06 1218 Development Work Production Suite on Supercomputer December 2010 High Water Mark Fence Capacity Change: 50% increase in production 80% decrease in development

6. Regional Climate February 2011 6 Time of the day (utc) Number of Nodes 00 06 1218 Development Work on Supercomputer December 2010

7. Regional Climate February 2011 7 The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015-1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1

8. Regional Climate February 2011 8

9. 9 AttributeOperational (Since 2004)Jan 2011 Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned for Q2FY11

10. Regional Climate February 2011 10 9 Month Seasonal 45 Day Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V2 (FY11) 0 UTC6 UTC18 UTC12 UTC A total of 16 CFS runs every day –4 runs @ 9 months length –3 runs @ 1 season –9 runs @ 45 days

11. Regional Climate February 2011 11 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2 WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational CFS V2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec Skill Days

12. Regional Climate February 2011 12 Increasing Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities –International MME products (with EUROSIP) –NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model+NCAR CSM Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts –WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) –GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)

13. Regional Climate February 2011 13 Land-Hydrology Team Mission Improve EMC Forecast Model performance and skill via land-surface component: –NAM/WRF, HWRF, GFS, CFS, CFSRR/GLDAS, NARR (including NDAS and GDAS) Land model physics (Noah LSM): surface fluxes, soil, vegetation, snowpack, sfc- layer/PBL Land surface characteristics: Vegetation cover, soil type, albedo, emissivity, roughness, etc Land state initial conditions: soil moisture & temp, snowpack Climate Service Products (CPPA): –NLDAS soil moisture analysis/monitoring/prediction for NIDIS (drought) –NLDAS soil moisture seasonal predictions –CEOP (Global Model intercomparisons among NWP centers; GEWEX program) 11

14. Regional Climate February 2011 14 June 1998 – drought year Large similarity and small spread EXTREMES: Monthly total column soil moisture anomalies and model spread (mm/month) July 1993 – flood year Similar characteristics and large spread

15. Regional Climate February 2011 15 Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) –Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using Daily initialization from NAVO. GFS forcing. Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin- up. –NCO parallel started FY10Q4. Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. Develop products with customers. –Full data on NOMADS. –Become operational in FY2011Q4 Example surface currents from MMAB parallel

16. Regional Climate February 2011 16 NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

17. Regional Climate February 2011 17 Questions Welcome