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The Future of Food Security in Global Change Scenarios

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Presentation on theme: "The Future of Food Security in Global Change Scenarios"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Future of Food Security in Global Change Scenarios
Thomas E. Downing Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute

2 Why scenarios? Three methodological challenges Toward a research agenda

3 Why scenarios? The nature of the system is beyond our understanding:
Complexity: behaviour emerges from the interaction of many agents Time scale of concern is decades to a century (and beyond) Prediction is impossible Policy options are many and at multiple scales that preclude simple decision support systems

4 What is a scenario anyway?
Narrative of internally consistent processes, actors and linkages Quantitative input to global change models Path analysis linking present with scenario future Vision of desirable worlds (or nightmare of avoidable futures)

5 From the IPCC

6 Who frames scenarios? Participation is limited by scenario process
Scenarios are framed for specific purposes Vulnerable are rarely directly involved Insight qualified by top-down scenarios IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Global Scenario Groups Great Transitions

7 SRES Scenario Families

8 SRES: Link GHG emissions to global concentrations to global climate change Purpose: Global GHG profiles Constraint: Government approval Bias: Poorest developing country in 2080s is as rich as OECD is now

9 Global Scenario Group Conventional Worlds Barbarization
Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism

10 How are local and global linked?
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES LIVELIHOODS ACTORS GCM CROP YIELDS FARM-LEVEL COPING STRATEGIES TRADE & TECHNOLOGY SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL NATURAL SYSTEMS GLOBAL LOCAL

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13 Profiles Multiple dimensions of rural food insecurity in India
Size of circle is related to nutritional status

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15 How is a close coupled system represented?

16 Two approaches Compared
Agent based: Discontinuities Large range of results Dynamic simulation: Smooth scenarios Modest range

17 Toward a research agenda
Formal comparison of scenario processes Experiments with large group scenario development Peer review and methodological critique Reconnecting theory and practice

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