1. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 TEMIS – VITO activities Felix Deutsch Koen De Ridder Jean Vankerkom VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research Mol, Belgium

2. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Contents 1Short overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system 2Results reached in TEMIS - Improvement of boundary conditions for BelEUROS - Contribution of LRTAP to air quality in Belgium 3Possible future contributions to TEMIS

3. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system EUROS created by RIVM (Netherlands) for modelling of ozone in Belgium implemented in 2001 for ozone in 2004/2005 BelEUROS extended by VITO with two modules for modelling additionally primary and secondary particulate matter (PM 10, PM 2.5 ) Meteo: ECMWF (T, rH, wv+wd, CC, PR, mixing layer height) Emissions: EMEP/CORINAIR; additionally local emission inventories with higher resolution, e.g. for Belgium Chemistry: for O 3, NO x : Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) gas phase mechanism, for PM 10, PM 2.5 : CACM + aerosol module MADRID 2 Resolution: horizontal: 60 km/15 km or 7.5 km; vertical: 4 layers (chemistry), 14 layers: advection

4. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system

5. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system refined grid: resolution 15 km x 15 km (or 7.5 km x 7.5 km)

6. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Overview of the BelEUROS-modelling system NO x VOCSO 2 6 pollutants 8 emission sectors traffic residential sources refineries combustion industrysolvents NH 3 PM 2.5 PM 10-2.5 agriculture nature

7. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results reached in TEMIS meteorology: 3-D fields of wind speed & direction, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, mixing height (ECMWF) emissions: per pollutant (NO x, VOCs, …) and per sector (traffic, industry, biogenic) but additionally boundary conditions: concentrations of O 3, NO 2 and all other chemical species at the boundaries of the model domain (up to now climatological values); these lateral boundary values were specified as long-term (monthly) mean concentrations), but no actual concentrations for a certain period required input data:

8. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results reached in TEMIS Methodology for improved boundary conditions for the BelEUROS-model Retrieval of 3-D concentration fields of all chemical species of the CB-IV mechanism from the TM4 model and interpolation to the lateral grid cells of BelEUROS to replace the climatologies

9. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC Ozone concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain simulated by TM4

10. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC Ozone: Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology

11. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC NO 2 concentrations at the Western boundary of the BelEUROS domain as simulated by TM4

12. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC TM4: Episode of transatlantic NO 2 -transport

13. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC NO 2 : Comparison of TM4 BC and BelEUROS climatology

14. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC Bias: -27,1 % (Clim.); -9,1 % (TM4)

15. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Improved BC Bias: -44,9 % (Clim.); -24,5 % (TM4)

16. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Contribution of LRTAP Impact of transatlantic O 3 transport on European air quality (O 3 ) BE: 37 % annual mean contribution

17. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Contribution of LRTAP Impact of transatlantic O 3 transport on European air quality (NO 2 ) BE: 6.5 % annual mean contribution; increasing O 3 background can lead to non- attainment of EU limit value for NO 2 by changing the NO/NO 2 -ratio!

18. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: Contribution of LRTAP Impact of transatlantic NO 2 transport on European air quality (NO 2 )

19. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Results: TEMIS website Impact of transatlantic NO x transport on European air quality (O 3 )

20. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Conclusions 1)Nesting of the components of the ozone chemistry of BelEUROS into TM4 concentration fields resulted in more realistic representation of long range transport of air pollutants in BelEUROS simulations. 2)This improved the model performance, e.g. of ozone simulations in winter/spring/autumn. 3)Calculations showed the high impact of transatlantic O 3 -transport on annual mean O 3 - and NO 2 -concentrations in Europe. Transatlantic NO 2 - transport can have an impact on NO 2 -concentrations during episodes. 4)Model performance would certainly benefit from a further improvement of boundary conditions by using Earth Observation data, also for the fine particulate matter species.

21. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Further improvement of boundary conditions for the BelEUROS model: –nesting of the fine particulate matter version of BelEUROS into TM4 concentration fields (PM 2.5, NH 4 +, SO 4 2-, NO 3 - ) –using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data for improved boundary conditions, taking LRT of fine particulate matter into consideration –using tropospheric ozone data for improved boundary conditions and LRT of ozone Possible future contributions to TEMIS

22. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Improvement of PM 10 forecasts using AOD observations from satellites, especially for taking e.g. Sahara dust, forest fires and biomass burning into consideration Possible contributions to TEMIS II Daily forecast of PM 10 concentrations for the Belgian Interregional Environment Agency: These forecasts only use local information and suffer from the lack of information on long range transport of PM 10

23. TEMIS user workshop, Frascati, 8-9 October 2007 Detection of upcoming PM clouds: –Combination of forecast model with trajectory model and AOD data –combine AOD EO data with forecasted back trajectories by e.g. Flextra/Flexpart –This would permit the detection of upcoming PM clouds Possible contributions to TEMIS II