1. HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 WP5 activities Michiel van Weele HYMN meeting, Totnes, UK, 22-24 October 2007

2. Overview Anthropogenic emission distributions: preprocessing N 2 O emissions and budget uncertainties TM4 sensitivity runs [CH 4, CO, OH: 2003-2005 anomalies]

4. Anthropogenic emissions for HYMN sensitivity runs Emission preprocessing for NOx, CO, CH4, NMV, SO2 IDL procedure to combine different input data sets into uniform netCDF data files Ship and aircraft emissions: EC 6 th FP IP Quantify Biomass burning emissions: GFEDv2 (van der Werf et al.) Other: year 2000 1x1 deg distributions IPCC/ACCENT; Remove ships and scale remainder with IIASA regional totals for 11 regions (‘MESSAGE’ land regions) For energy-related and non-energy related Year 2000 and scenarios for the years 2010, 2020,…2050 Linear interpolated emissions for the first decade: 2001,2002,…2009 Agricultural emissions from EDGAR (FT2000)

5. Anthropogenic emissions: CO HYMN CO emissions: 511 Tg(C) GFEDv2 biomass burning: 174 Tg(C) Total for 2004: 685 Tg(C) (= 1600 Tg CO) 60% enhanced anthropogenic CO emissions in Asia w.r.t IPCC/ACCENT Asia presently contributes about 40% to the global total of non-biomass burning anthropogenic CO emissions

6. Anthropogenic emissions: CH4, N2O Nitrous oxide emission distribution (this does not look only anthropogenic!) Total for 2004: 7.18 Tg (N 2 O-N) Methane anthropogenic emission distribution Total for 2004: 293 Tg (CH 4 )

7. N2O emissions GEIA 1x1 degrees distributions (for the1990s) instead of IPCC/ACCENT + IIASA regional totals for 11 regions (‘MESSAGE’ land regions) For energy-related and non-energy related Year 2000 and scenarios for the years 2010, 2020,…2050 Linear interpolated emissions for the first decade 2001,2002,…2009 Problem: GEIA: combines anthropogenic and natural distributions Soil emissions under natural vegetation Soil emissions from fertilised lands ? Alternative: Edgar + LPJ ?

8. N2O budget uncertainties IIASA, year 2000: non-energy-related 6.6 energy-related 0.5 Total (Tg N 2 O-N/yr) 7.1 GEIA (1990s) energy-related 0.7 Animals, waste 1.1 BMB, biofuel 0.2 Soils* 7.9 Ocean 3.6 Total (Tg N 2 O-N/yr)13.5 * post-forest clearing soils, soils under natural vegetation, fertilised agricultural fields IPCC 4AR, year 2000: Anthropogenic 6.7 Natural source 11.0 Trend (+1 ppb/yr) 5.0 Total (Tg N 2 O-N/yr) 17.7 HYMN year 2000 budget and uncertainties Anthropogenic source 6.8 +/- 0.5 Trend (+1 ppb/yr) 5.0 +/- 0.7 Net natural flux 10.8 +/- 3.1 Oceans 3.8 Soils nat. vegetation 7.0 Total (Tg N 2 O-N/yr) 17.6 +/- 3.2 Implied stratospheric sink12.6 +/- 3.2 N = (A – T) / (X 1 /X 0 -1) N ~ 6*( A – T ) Budget equations: N = s X 0 pre-industrial A + N = s X 1 + T present-day N = Net natural fluxes A = Anthropogenic emissions s = stratospheric loss rate Burden ratio X 1 / X 0 (~ 315 / 270)

9. First set of sensitivity runs (open for discussion) Run 1: HYMN anthropogenic emissions CO, NOx, etc, except CH4 Bousquet a-posteriori CH4 for 2004 Run 2(A,B,C) as run 1 but bottom-up CH4 emission inventories: A-run HYMN anthropogenic CH4 Compiled natural CH4 emissions and sink B-run: anthropogenic emissions +10% and natural emissions reduced for same global total C-run: with NH xx % reduced and tropical wetland emissions enhanced for same global total Run 3A (B,C) as runs 2 but EDGAR4 anthropogenic emissions for 2004 (CO, NOx, CH4 etc) Dependent on timely availability and importance of differences with IIASA All runs same initialisation; global 3x2; 25-layers; one-year runs; any trend in CH4 allowed Compiled wetland CH4 emissions to be decided: e.g. Kaplan tropical + Wania NH (??).

10. Interannual variability in OH Consistency between OH- anomalies inferred from methane (in blue) and methylchloroform (orange, red) for1998 -2006 Consistency with OH variability of +/- 1 to 2% calculated from global models (dots) Recent years have less sensitivity to the timing to CH3CCl3 emissions than in early nineties Lingering CH3CCl3 emissions are likely decreasing in time Ref: S. Montzka, presented at Mainz OH workshop, June 2007

11. Ref: S. Montzka, Mainz OH workshop, June 2007 Can we model and understand the anomalies in CO and CH4 for the period 2003- 2005 (and 1998-2000?) BMB emissions, GFEDv2, 1997-2004 Ref: van der Werf et al., ACP, 2006.