1. L3MTO Transfer to CPC Preliminary Meeting February 7, 2008

2. Outline Overview of L3MTO algorithm Current Operation Flowchart QC Flowchart COOP Station Burden Requirements Sample Modules for: –Annual Calculations –Monthly Calculations Alaska & Hawaii Outlooks Sample Output: –XML –QC –ARC Archival Support Timeline

3. L3MTO Scientific Development: Operational production CD data Station data Regression Analysis 1971-2000 1996-2005 Trend Significance Significant? Intercept Adjustment Yes No CPC CD forecast Mean and St. Dev. Station Forecast Solution Verification/Correlation filter Pass? Merge Forecast data Climatology Data Distribution and Display Once a year routine: Once a month routine: YesNo Multivariate statistics Regression Coefficients Verification Create ARC data

4. CPC: CD forecast Technical Support Team: Collect & respond to trouble tickets trouble tickets WFO: 1.Ensure link to the product 2.Secondary QC of the product 3.Local value added 4.Customer services and outreach Annette: 1.Make forecast 2.Primary QC 3.Fix troubles Web Team: 1.Post product on web 2.Hosts the product 3.Fix Troubles Operational Flow Archive CPC

5. WFO QC Erroneous Data Check Approve data Web & Functionality Error Check Conspicuous Data Check Send trouble ticket to WS Pass Fail Send trouble ticket to Technical Team Start Other Discrepancy Fail Go through Trouble Ticket Checklist Pass Fail Section A Section B Section C NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD

6. Station Burden All Sites: 4,621 from Homogenized Data Set Sub-set: 1,187 Proposals: –CPC automation will calculate All sites and send a sub-set to web team until such time that web team can handle All sites *** OR *** –CPC will push All sites to web team, and web team will sub-set

7. Requirements Software –Linux OS –Perl –Wget or sftp Hardware –Linux Machine Storage –Annual Data ~3 GB (~400MB Compressed) –Monthly Data ~300 MB (~38MB Compressed) –~7 GB per year (~860MB Compressed)

8. Sample Module for Annual Calculations Please open attached file: “Sample Display when using Annual L3MTO module.pdf”

9. Sample Module for Monthly Calculations Please open attached file: “SampleL3MTOmonthlyDOS.pdf”

10. Alaska & Hawaii (the problem child!!) No real way to automate the annual calculations Need to coordinate with Dave Unger & CPC L3MTO Team to find best way to incorporate this into annual routine

11. Sample XML Output

12. Sample QC Output Random check of 10% of all stations (~500) -Non-repeating -Includes AK & HI Random Leads

13. Analysis Resource Center Text Files: –Site Stats –Threshold Documents Graphics (XML): –Scatter Plots –Trend Plots –Heidke Skill Maps L3MTO Coefficients for ALAMOGORDO, NM CPC Climate Division # COOP Station ID #290199 CWA: EPZ SeasonMeanMedianStDevSlopeIntercept R* Lower Tercile Upper Tercile FMA54.053.81.940.953 5.170.90 53.2 54.9 MAM61.561.51.980.887 9.850.91 60.6 62.4 AMJ69.970.21.850.858 12.920.91 69.1 70.8 MJJ76.376.21.520.906 9.950.91 75.7 77.0 JJA78.978.81.391.049-1.400.94 78.3 79.5 JAS76.776.71.581.099-5.580.93 76.0 77.4 ASO70.670.31.381.033-0.290.89 70.0 71.2 SON61.361.21.510.994 2.440.88 60.7 62.0 OND51.451.31.530.986 2.660.93 50.7 52.1 NDJ44.744.41.740.994 1.860.93 44.0 45.5 DJF43.943.51.660.954 3.610.95 43.1 44.6 JFM47.747.31.770.943 4.650.90 46.9 48.5 CPC Forecast Sensitivity Test for ALAMOGORDO CD # 102 Season: FMA A significant* BELOW NORMAL category outlook at the station is produced by 40% (or greater) BELOW NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102 A significant* ABOVE NORMAL category outlook at the station is produced by 39% (or greater) ABOVE NORMAL category of CPC outlooks in Climate Division 102 Season: MAM The outlook at this station during this season will always produce Climatology (equal chances, 33% for all three categories). This is reflective of a Heidke skill score of zero or less. Any scores in this range will automatically produce equal chances at the station. Please see the ARC site skill scores for more information..

14. Archival Process Simple automated save to archive folder Any other requirements???

15. Support HI L3MTO will remain operational until CPC/CSD/Web Team are satisfied Run L3MTO in parallel in HI for as long as necessary (and run comparison tests) Annette will continue to support & trouble shoot as needed for undetermined length of time?? L3MTO Technical Team (CSD, Regions & WFO FPs) will remain as support for duration of product lifetime Web support is always available: John Bollinger’s group has superb service & support

16. Proposed Timeline ??? Telecons: –Preliminary: Feb. 7 –Technical: 2 or 3 in March –Administrative: Beginning/Mid March (decision on transfer date) Actions: –Feb/March: Annette & CPC Tech Team look at scripts & determine needs and additional work –End of March???: Annette travel to CD for implementation & training (Bollinger will attend towards the end of the week) Goal (August) –CPC is running operational forecast –CPC has produced annual data –CPC is self-sufficient???