1. Aircraft Predictability Summary Definition of predictability –Hard to nail down, but it starts with UQ –Processes and requirements define predictability for each context –Do we even need this term given those already available? Current state of predictability –Discipline dependent, but rapidly increasing awareness –Generally poor to marginal … we’re not there yet for high-fidelity models and complex processes –But sometimes good enough given the role of prediction in the particular systems engineering process –Decision-makers recognize the importance of UQ and predictability, even if they don’t know what it means

2. Aircraft Predictability Summary (cont.) Predictability assessment methods –No well-defined metrics or confidence measures, but UQ is the most important consideration –Should depend on the frameworks already being developed for V&V –Perhaps too much dependence on definition of all uncertainty sources for practical considerations … need more emphasis on robust approaches Dominant modeling, testing, and validation impediments –Multidisciplinary problems –Appropriate processes to allocate test resources for maximum knowledge benefit –The usual (modeling) suspects … –Poor documentation of modeling decisions, test processes, and data filtering before presentation

3. Aircraft Predictability Summary (cont.) Predictability models –Consistent and detailed presentation of model and test methods used in each application … “expose yourself” What could we do if we were more predictive? –Reallocate test resources more optimally –Better communication with decision-makers –Implement new technologies more quickly