1. POLICY DIRECTIONS David Bray, Economic and Policy Services Pty Ltd

2. Policy directions  Review of technical issues  Public policy formulation  Ways forward

3. Technical Issues  Supply chains, networks and globalisation  accepted thinking  Mode choice - movement rather than mode  perhaps there – for non-urban transport  Future growth in demand  considerable growth anticipated  Providing adequate system capacity  a challenge  need for robustness  relative cost of infrastructure and operations  timing

4. Technical issues - continued  Economic growth  Renewed emphasis  Productivity  Operational efficiency  Safety  Public views and government actions  Environment  Firmly on the agenda  Limited agreement on best ways forward

5. Technical issues - continued  Technical issues given less emphasis  Capital financing  Pricing  Urban transport

6. The policy process  Sabatier (1999) “Theories of the Policy Process”  Some common themes for more comprehensive frameworks (multiple streams, punctuated equilibrium, advocacy coalition)  Policy communities  Policy windows  Policy entrepreneurs  Also role for policy diffusion, funnel of causality, etc

7. Implications  We do not control the agenda  Though we try to varying degrees to influence it  We are part of policy communities  We need to have policy analysis available  To support policy communities  For when it is needed

8. Two related issues – Ease of Change  Different capacity for transport sub-sectors to accommodate growth, ranging through:  Aviation  Road transport and logistics  Rail transport  Urban transport  In part related to the complexity of action

9. - and Rationale for Action  Can discern presented policies and proposals that are  Demand led  Supply led  Vision or Aspirational – which can be Principles based Outcome based  All have merits and risks

10. Policy Directions - Achievements  Some big issues are in place  Labour aspects of micro-economic reform  Concern for efficiency gains  Role of rail given clearer prominence and framework is in place  In general, fixed assets and operations are separated for all modes A productive tension Negative effect of protection  Safety also given new prominence

11. Future issues  Infrastructure  Safety  Environment  Strategic planning  Pricing  Urban transport

12. Infrastructure  Providing capacity  Anticipating demand  Prioritising projects  Scheduling implementation  Auslink  Have we replaced one moral hazard with another?  Road infrastructure  How much road infrastructure?  Sustaining road assets - how to increase discipline?

13. Safety  How to improve walking-the-walk  Limits to what can be done internally  The importance of demand led approaches  Community buy-in and behaviour change  Giving politicians the support they need

14. Environment  The awakening giant  Different perspectives on solutions  Need to keep research and policy analysis broad- based and current  Importance of public attitudes and response

15. Strategic planning  International practice  Germany, Greater Mekong Subregion, China  What does this mean for us – some needs  Understand context  Recognise drivers of change  Understand the available policy instruments  Commit to following through  Clear thinking; coordination; innovation & trialling  Implications of planning in a market economy

16. Pricing  Progress in Germany  In Australia  Has Phase I ended – in a stalemate?  Future needs  Keep policy analysis current  Look for short term opportunities, eg fixed to variable pricing  Potential role for insurance companies

17. Urban transport  The lumbering giant  General concurrence on the vision  Limited success to date  Will need to consider the roles for  Demand led and planned outcome approaches  Persuasion, prices and regulation policy instruments

18. Thanks to DOTARS, BTRE, Phil Potterton & other staff and the speakers for an excellent Colloquium