1. SOME RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS LIFE CYCLE AND OBSERVED RAINFALL OVER DEL PLATA BASIN Daniel Vila 1,2, Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado 2, Ines Velasco 3 1 Instituto Nacional del Agua, Ezeiza, Buenos Aires, Argentina 2 DSA, CPTEC-INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brasil 3 DCAyO, FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

2. OUTLINES THE FORTRACC TECHNIQUE USED DATA BASE MAIN ALGORITM CHARACTERISTICS TECHNIQUE APPLICATION: IGUAZU BASIN CONCLUSIONS

3. OUTLINES THE FORTRACC TECHNIQUE USED DATA BASE MAIN ALGORITM CHARACTERISTICS TECHNIQUE APPLICATION: IGUAZU BASIN CONCLUSIONS

4. DATA DATA : GOES 8 (75º W, 0º ) imagery - channel 4 (10.7 μm, thermal infrared), - spatial resolution: 4 km x 4 km - temporal resolution: ½ hour (*) provided by Centro de Previsión del Tiempo y Clima (CPTEC). Period Period: December 2002 – January and February 2003 Region Region: SHEM (Southern Hemisphere Scan)

6. OUTLINES THE FORTRACC TECHNIQUE USED DATA BASE MAIN ALGORITM CHARACTERISTICS TECHNIQUE APPLICATION: IGUAZU BASIN CONCLUSIONS

7. Conex space generation (“clusters”). Temperature threshold T  235 K – Minimun Area A MIN  150 pix

8. (a) Regular tracking (continuity), (b) split y (c) merge. White MCS: t - Purple MCS: t+Δt Tracking Methodology Based on overlapped area between consecutive images (1/2 hour) Minimum MCS size: 150 pixels

9. MCS displacement estimation MCS growing evolution estimation

10. TECHNIQUE VALIDATION OF INTERPOLATED IMAGENS: NOWCASTING USE

11. TECHNIQUE VALIDATION OF INTERPOLATED IMAGENS: NOWCASTING USE Evolución temporal de la cantidad de píxeles pronosticados y observados para el tiempo de pronóstico de 30 minutos (izquierda) y 120 minutos (derecha) para el periodo 6 al 11 de enero de 2003

12. OUTLINES THE FORTRACC TECHNIQUE USED DATA BASE MAIN ALGORITM CHARACTERISTICS TECHNIQUE APPLICATION: IGUAZU BASIN CONCLUSIONS

13. Monthly rainfall and mean number of pixels per image with temperature below 235 K

14. Iguazu river basin: green dots are raingauge stations (daily accumulation) Rain event from raingauge measurement: RR > 25 mm/day - minimum area = 50000 km 2 or RR > 75 mm/day in (at least) one raingauge. 17 day were selected Rain event from satellite detection: For those days classified as rain event from raingauge measurement, were selected all MCS (“famlies’) that affect the raingauge stations with rr > 25 mm/day 32 families were selected

15. Mean brightness temperature (left) and brightness temperature anomaly (right) for selected cases.

16. Mean trajectory of composite (32 MCS families). Green circle correspond to initial stage, box to maturity (maximum extension) and star to dissipation.

17. Relative frequency of life time for rainy and non-rainy MCS (left) and life time – maximum extent scatter plot for rainy and non-rainy MCS.

18. DIURNAL CYCLE MCS area expansion rate (in s -1 *10 6 ) and minimum temperature diurnal cycle.

19. Mean temporal evolution of families composition: size, minimum temperature and convective area (T < 210 K) for rain events(left) and non-rain events (right)

20. Initial stage: mean area expansion – cooling rate and total life cycle

21. Mean area and temperature evolution according to different life cycle duration

23. 24-hour accumulation (left) and size and temperature evolution of selected MCS (right) Cooling rate ~ 12 K/hour

24. OUTLINES THE FORTRACC TECHNIQUE USED DATA BASE MAIN ALGORITM CHARACTERISTICS TECHNIQUE APPLICATION: IGUAZU BASIN CONCLUSIONS

25. THE MEAN LIFETIME IS AROUND THREE TIMES LARGER FOR RAINFALL-ASSOCIATED MCS’S THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL MCS DATASET. THE COOLING RATE DURING THE FIRST STAGES OF LIFE CYCLE (FROM 2-4 TO 6-8 HOURS) IS GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL DATASET, WHILE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DURING THE FIRST DETECTION STAGE DOES NOT ALLOW TO DISTINGUISH THE EVOLUTION OF A GIVEN MCS. AREA EXPANSION RATE AND COLD-TOP GROWTH HAVE A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION, WITH LARGER VARIATIONS DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2-4 HOURS AND 10-12 HOURS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE FULL DATASET. THE MCS’S REACH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 1 – 2 HOURS BEFORE ACQUIRING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT.

26. CONCLUSIONS THE MEAN LIFETIME IS AROUND THREE TIMES LARGER FOR RAINFALL-ASSOCIATED MCS’S THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL MCS DATASET. THE COOLING RATE DURING THE FIRST STAGES OF LIFE CYCLE (FROM 2-4 TO 6-8 HOURS) IS GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL DATASET, WHILE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DURING THE FIRST DETECTION STAGE DOES NOT ALLOW TO DISTINGUISH THE EVOLUTION OF A GIVEN MCS. AREA EXPANSION RATE AND COLD-TOP GROWTH HAVE A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION, WITH LARGER VARIATIONS DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2-4 HOURS AND 10-12 HOURS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE FULL DATASET. THE MCS’S REACH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 1 – 2 HOURS BEFORE ACQUIRING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT.

27. CONCLUSIONS THE MEAN LIFETIME IS AROUND THREE TIMES LARGER FOR RAINFALL-ASSOCIATED MCS’S THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL MCS DATASET. THE COOLING RATE DURING THE FIRST STAGES OF LIFE CYCLE (FROM 2-4 TO 6-8 HOURS) IS GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL DATASET, WHILE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DURING THE FIRST DETECTION STAGE DOES NOT ALLOW TO DISTINGUISH THE EVOLUTION OF A GIVEN MCS. AREA EXPANSION RATE AND COLD-TOP GROWTH HAVE A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION, WITH LARGER VARIATIONS DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2-4 HOURS AND 10-12 HOURS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE FULL DATASET. THE MCS’S REACH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 1 – 2 HOURS BEFORE ACQUIRING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT.

28. CONCLUSIONS THE MEAN LIFETIME IS AROUND THREE TIMES LARGER FOR RAINFALL-ASSOCIATED MCS’S THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL MCS DATASET. THE COOLING RATE DURING THE FIRST STAGES OF LIFE CYCLE (FROM 2-4 TO 6-8 HOURS) IS GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GENERAL DATASET, WHILE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DURING THE FIRST DETECTION STAGE DOES NOT ALLOW TO DISTINGUISH THE EVOLUTION OF A GIVEN MCS. AREA EXPANSION RATE AND COLD-TOP GROWTH HAVE A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION, WITH LARGER VARIATIONS DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2-4 HOURS AND 10-12 HOURS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE FULL DATASET. THE MCS’S REACH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 1 – 2 HOURS BEFORE ACQUIRING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT.