1. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Linking Forest- and Energy-Sector Models – Identification of Wood Flows Possibly Not Covered in “Traditional” Forest Sector Models Linking Forest- and Energy-Sector Models – Identification of Wood Flows Possibly Not Covered in “Traditional” Forest Sector Models Peter Schwarzbauer, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna (Boku) and Competence Centre for Wood Composites and Wood Chemistry (Wood K plus) How forest sector models tackle climate policies: Nancy, France, June 3-4, 2010

2. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Overview of presentation Overview of presentation Background The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses Example of an Austrian forest sector model (FOHOW) and wood flows not covered by the model The most complete picture of wood flows to-date – the Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Additional aspect – waste paper Summary and conclusions

3. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Background (1) Context of this paper - research project “Wood Supply and Economic Crisis: Impacts on the Forest-based Sector and Bio-Energy Production” [ECri-Wood; No. 13617] financed by the “Jubiläumsfond der Österreichischen Nationalbank” (Anniversary Fund of the Austrian National Bank).

4. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Background (2) Increasing competition between the uses of wood for energy and material purposes Need to have a complete picture of potentials Lack of data and lack of understanding of existing and potential wood flows (wood sources) sometimes produce wrong projections/predictions regarding the development of wood markets.

5. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Background (3) Many “traditional” forest sector models do not cover all wood flows relevant for physical purposes (manufacturing of goods) or for energy. Identification of wooden biomass flows most likely not covered in existing forest sector models based on the “Wood Resource Balance (WRB)” scheme developed by Mantau et al. (e.g. 2008a, 2008b) and on the Austrian “Wood Flow” scheme developed by the Austrian Energy Agency (Hagauer et al, 2007)

6. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Overview of presentation Overview of presentation Background The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses Example of an Austrian forest sector model (FOHOW) and wood flows not covered by the model The most complete picture of wood flows to-date – the Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Additional aspect – waste paper Summary and conclusions

7. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses

8. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses

9. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Overview of presentation Overview of presentation Background The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses Example of an Austrian forest sector model (FOHOW) and wood flows not covered by the model The most complete picture of wood flows to-date – the Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Additional aspect – waste paper Summary and conclusions

10. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling (1) (2) (3) (4) The Austrian wood flow 2005 and components not covered by FOHOW marked by red ellipses (Hagauer et al., 2007)

11. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Overview of presentation Overview of presentation Background The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses Example of an Austrian forest sector model (FOHOW) and wood flows not covered by the model The most complete picture of wood flows to-date – the Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Additional aspect – waste paper Summary and conclusions

12. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling The Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Components of wood supply and consumption in the Wood Resource Balance for the EU27/EFTA region (Mantau et al., 2008a)

13. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling The Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Multiple (cascadian) uses of wood fibers (Mantau et al., 2007) (Mantau et al., 2007)

14. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Overview of presentation Overview of presentation Background The magnitude of wood sources and wood uses Example of an Austrian forest sector model (FOHOW) and wood flows not covered by the model The most complete picture of wood flows to-date – the Wood Resource Balance (WRB) Additional aspect – waste paper Summary and conclusions

15. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Waste Paper Not taken into account by either WRB nor Austrian Wood Flow scheme, but would be important, because waste paper competes with wood pulp as an input in paper & paperboard production. This has an impact on the competition between as well as the availability of pulpwood and fuel wood. Waste paper contains a substantial amount of energy and can be (is) used directly for energy production itself.

16. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Waste Paper In the EU27 the recycling rate of consumed paper is about 67%, resulting in 48 mill. tons of recovered paper in 2009 One ton of waste paper roughly represents 3.2 m 3 roundwood equivalents. Therefore, in absolute figures, recycled (waste) paper in the EU27 represents approximately 154 mill. m 3 roundwood equivalents. Waste paper largely (> 90%) consists of cellulose, while the share of cellulose in roundwood is only 30%+, the rest is lignin and hemicellulose. The latter two components cannot be recovered by the use of waste paper.

17. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling During the last years, the European data situation on wooden biomass has improved considerably regarding the possible linkage of forest sector and energy models – not the least through the introduction of the “Wood Resource Balance”. In order to develop an even more complete picture of wood-based fiber flows, it is recommendable to also include waste paper in the considerations. Summary and conclusions

18. University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna Department of Economics and Social Sciences Institut for Marketing & Innovation I Ao.Univ. Prof. DI. Dr. Peter Schwarzbauer Forest Sector Modelling Thank You for Your Attention !!!!!