1. Department of Infrastructure and Planning Population trends and future prospects for Queensland communities Alison Taylor Independent Schools Queensland 2009 state conference Friday28th August 2009

2. Outline Recent trends in population growth births deaths and migration. Future prospects Where is the population growth likely to be? Ageing of the population How will Queensland’s future growth impact on the demand for school facilities?

3. Australia’s population growth surges… years ending December Natural increase up 37,000 NOM up 143,000 (accounting for 80% of additional growth) Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3101.0

4. Two-thirds of Australia’s population growth is in the 3 big states average annual change, years ending December Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3105.0 and 3101.0

5. Australia’s population distribution, by state and territory as at December 2008 Source: ABS CAT No 3101.0 2.2m 0.2m 1.6m 5.4m 0.5m 0.3m 3.0m 4.3m 7.0m *SEQ at June 2008

6. Net overseas migration is the main contributor to growth year to December 2008 Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No.3101.0

7. Births, Queensland, 1901-2008 Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions 2008 was also a record year for births at the national level

8. Longer term patterns of fertility, Australia and Queensland Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions End of WWII Fertility peaked at 3.5 in 1961 Contraceptive pill becomes freely available Below replacement fertility for last 30 years Baby boom Great Depression

9. The impact of the pill in Australia… The oral contraceptive pill was released in Australia in 1961 and for a time Doctors would only prescribe it for married women. By the mid-1970s however, the pill had become the most widely used method of contraception in Australia and Australian women were the highest users in the world. (Taking precautions: the story of contraception, Powerhouse Museum Sydney).

10. Life boils down to 2 questions… Should I get a dog?

11. Or should I have children?

12. Deaths, Queensland, 1859-2008 Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions

13. Life expectancy at birth, Queensland 1881-1890 males – 47.2 females - 50.9 (Australia) 1920-1922 males – 59.2 females – 63.3 (Australia) 1946-1948 males – 66.1 females – 70.6 (Australia) 1971 males – 67.8 females – 74.7 1991 males – 74.4 females – 80.5 2001 males – 76.9 females – 82.3 2006 males – 78.5 females – 83.4 Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions

14. Life expectancy at selected ages At 25 years of age – male 54.9 years, female 59.3 years At 45 years of age – male 36.0 years, female 39.7 years At 50 years of age – male 31.4 years, female 35.2 years At 65 years of age – male 18.5 years, female 21.6 years Source: ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, 2007

15. Net overseas migration, Queensland years ending December Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions

16. Top 10 birthplace countries for settler arrivals Year to June 2008 RankCountry of BirthPersonsPer cent 1New Zealand13,00940.0% 2United Kingdom5,95418.3% 3South Africa1,5704.8% 4India1,2283.8% 5Philippines1,0703.3% 6China (Excl. SAR & Taiwan)8462.6% 7Malaysia5001.5% 8Korea4251.3% 9Fiji4201.3% 10Thailand3801.2% Subtotal25,40278.2% Total32,496100.0% Source: Overseas migration to Queensland 2009, PIFU, July 2009

17. Net interstate migration, Queensland years ending December Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions

18. Changing age distribution of net interstate migration, Queensland years ending June Source: ABS Cat no. 3412.0, various editions

19. Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0

20. 10 fastest growing LGAs in Queensland average annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008 Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0 NB: Excludes Indigenous councils. 2001-20062007-2008 RankLGANo.% % 1Ipswich (C)3,4052.2%6,1044.1% 2Cairns (R)3,8892.5%5,9853.9% 3 Moreton Bay (R) 9,2662.6%11,8313.4% 4Fraser Coast (R)3,0093.1%3,1243.4% 5Gladstone (R)1,5142.6%1,8713.4% 6Lockyer Valley (R)6531.9%1,0733.3% 7Whitsunday (R)6852.1%9973.1% 8Townsville (C)4,0982.3%5,1343.0% 9Sunshine Coast (R)9,5833.1%8,7342.9% 10Gold Coast (C)15,8663.2%13,2102.7%

21. 10 largest growing LGAs in Queensland average annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008 Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0 NB: Excludes Indigenous councils. 2001-20062007-2008 RankLGANo.% % 1Brisbane (C)18,9221.9%17,3681.7% 2Gold Coast (C)15,8663.4%13,2102.7% 3Moreton Bay (R)9,2662.8%11,8313.4% 4Sunshine Coast (R)9,5833.2%8,7342.9% 5Ipswich (C)3,4052.4%6,1044.1% 6Cairns (R)3,8892.6%5,9853.9% 7Logan (C)4,5571.8%5,2252.0% 8Townsville (C)4,0982.5%5,1343.0% 9Fraser Coast (R)3,0093.4%3,1243.4% 10Redland (C)2,7922.1%2,8762.1%

22. 10 largest growing LGAs in Regional Queensland Average annual growth, 2001-2006, 2007-2008 Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0. 2001-20062007-2008 RankLGANo.% % 1Cairns (RC)3,8893.05,9853.9 2Townsville (C)4,0982.85,1343.0 3Fraser Coast (RC)2,9684.03,1243.4 4Mackay (RC)3,2503.62,6502.4 5Bundaberg (RC)1,7912.22,0392.3 6Gladstone (RC)1,5143.31,8713.4 7Toowoomba (RC)2,7411.81,6571.1 8Rockhampton (RC)1,8581.91,4121.3 9Gympie (RC)1,1152.91,0842.4 10Whitsunday (RC)6852.59973.1

23. Three series of population projections are produced Low, medium and high series are produced These reflect more or less optimistic assumptions leading to a lower projected population in the low series and a higher projection in the high series We encourage use of a range (between the low and high outcomes), rather than a single number, to reflect variability Other outcomes may eventuate if any of the assumptions diverge from what has been assumed

24. Actual & projected population, Queensland 1976 to 2056 ActualProjected High Medium Low 4.1m in 2006 Between 5.5m - 6.4m at 2026 Between 7m - 10m at 2056 Source: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 ed.

25. Key facts 4.1m in 2006, 5.9m in 20 years and 8m in 50 years if resemble the medium series Higher growth in next 20 years (1.8m) than last 20 (1.5m) Highest growth projected in the short term – 95,000pa till 2016 1 million1938 2 million1974 3 million1992 4 million2006 5 million2016 6 million2028 7 million2042 8 million2057 Population milestones Sources: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

27. 10 largest growing LGAs in Queensland projected average annual growth, 2006-2031 PopulationAverage annual population change RankLGA20062031No.% 1Gold Coast (C)466,433788,23112,8722.1 2Ipswich (C)142,400434,78811,6964.6 3Brisbane (C)991,2601,220,5439,1710.8 4Sunshine Coast (R)295,084501,1798,2442.1 5Moreton Bay (R)332,862523,0377,6071.8 6Logan (C)260,081425,9186,6332.0 7Townsville (C)165,278270,5004,2092.0 8Toowoomba (R)151,297228,4613,0871.7 9Cairns (R)147,538222,6403,0041.7 10Mackay (R)107,332172,9932,6261.9 Source: DIP Population Projections 2008 ed. medium series

28. South East Queensland* 2.77m people in 2007 Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) = 1.34m Average 1981-2006 - 53,700 each year Average 2001-2006 - 66,340 each year Projected growth next 25 years (2006- 2031) = 1.60m to reach 4.43m Average 2006-2031 - 64,100 each year Average 2006-2011 – 66,850 each year * SEQ Region including Toowoomba Statistical District

29. South East Queensland - outlook Prospects are for strong growth to continue Migration will continue to be the main driver of growth - overseas Main cities – Brisbane, Gold Coast, (Moreton Bay), Sunshine Coast Growth will be split between major greenfield areas of Ipswich, Logan and West Moreton Brisbane inner city infill and redevelopment coastal cities of Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast TODs and other centres or nodes Population will continue to cluster along the coast although policy, affordability and planned infrastructure provision will favour the west

30. Eastern Regional Queensland 1.34m people in 2007 Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) = 451,500 1981-2006 – average of 18,000 each year 2001-2006 – average of 26,700 each year Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 614,300 to reach 1.93m 2006-2031 – average of 24,575 each year

31. Eastern Regional Queensland - outlook Strong relative advantages Impact of ongoing resource activity Resident workers Expansion of businesses to service industry Strong industrial, educational and tourism sectors lead to job creation and continuing migration prospects Lifestyle destinations will continue to attract people Future population will concentrate even further into key regional cities and major towns and these will account for most of the growth Smaller communities (ageing, rationalisation of agricultural workforce, increased contracting) to have small declines

32. Western Regional Queensland 74,876 people in 2007 Decline last 25 years (1981-2006) = 10,000 1981-2006 average of -400 each year 2001-2006 average of -520 each year Projected growth next 25 years (2006- 2031) = 6,900 to reach 78,095 2006-2031 – average of 275 each year Past decades 10 yrs to 1991 -238, 10 yrs to 2001 -603 Future decades 10 yrs to 2011 will be 93, 10 yrs to 2021 will be 17

33. What’s going to be different in the future? 1. Population ageing 2. Changing household structure

34. Queensland age by sex, 1986, 2006, 2026 Source: ABS, Cat. No. 3201.0 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium series Males Females ERP Totals 1986 – 2,624,595 2006 – 4,091,412 2026 – 5,884,390

35. Population change by broad age groups, QLD decades ending Source: ABS, Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium Series

36. Projected changes to Queensland’s age structure Of the projected increase of 2.2m people over the next 25 years 36% (or 781,000 people) will be 65 and over 24% (or 519,500 people) will be between 45 and 64 years 20% (or 428,000 people) will be between 25 and 44 years 12% (or 275,250 people will be less than 15 years 8% (or 178,430 people) will be between 15 and 24 years

37. Households with and without children, Queensland, 2006-2031 Source: PIFU Projections of households, dwellings and living arrangements, 2009 edition

38. Past and projected change to SEQ age structure

39. Past and projected change to Eastern Regional Queensland age structure

40. Past and projected change to Western Regional Queensland age structure

41. Fastest growing areas projected school age population (5-14) Growth 2006 to 2011Absolute Growth Gold Coast City2.2%6,477 Ipswich City1.9%2,170 Isaac Regional Council1.8%316 Gladstone Regional Council1.7%776 Townsville City Council1.4%1,770 (LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons) Growth 2011 to 2016Absolute Growth Ipswich City4.6%6,303 Scenic Rim Regional Council4.0%1,196 Isaac Regional Council3.6%714 Gold Coast City2.2%7,432 Townsville City2.2%2,972 (LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons) Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

42. Largest growing areas projected school age population (5-14) Absolute Change 2006 to 2011 Gold Coast City Council 6,477 Brisbane City Council 5,300 Sunshine Coast Regional Council 2,640 Moreton Bay Regional Council 2,578 Ipswich City Council 2,170 Absolute Change 2011 to 2016 Brisbane City Council 8,093 Gold Coast City Council 7,432 Ipswich City Council 6,303 Moreton Bay Regional Council 4,409 Sunshine Coast Regional Council 4,192 Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition

43. Summary Most of the future growth will be focused in the south east corner - particularly along the coast and in Ipswich Regional cities, also mostly along the coast except for Toowoomba, will also have continuing strong growth Smaller towns and localities, on or near the coast, adjacent to a larger centre or seen as lifestyle destinations, will grow Smaller centres inland or in western Queensland will have either stable populations or small declines Exceptions are locations near to resource development activity – if the associated workforce chooses to live locally

44. Queensland’s future population will be very different to the current one Size – will be much larger (2031 population will be 1.4 – 1.7 times larger than in 2006) Distribution – increasing concentration in SEQ but pace will slow as regional cities are the location of more growth than in past years. Western Queensland will continue to lose population but more slowly than in the past. Composition – ageing, ageing, ageing –Under 45 years 40% of growth –45 years or more (60% of growth (one in three new people will be aged 65 years or more) –More overseas born

45. Implications for the provision of school facilities School aged population to grow Some areas will grow faster than others South East Queensland areas will record the largest amount of growth Projections are based on a set of assumptions If people’s behaviour or influencing factors change, then the assumptions may change altering the projection outcome Most growth will be in the older age groups May be increased competition for resources More emphasis on flexibility and adaptability of facilities