1. Drought in the African Sahel Alessandra Giannini 4 December 2006

2. http://www.pbs.org/wnet/africa/explore/sahel/sahel_overview.html the Sahel

3. r = 0.60 A. Giannini, R. Saravanan and P. Chang, 2003. Science, 302, 1027-1030 Also see e.g. Bader and Latif, 2003 (GRL); Lu and Delworth, 2005 (GRL)

4. OUTLINE: 1. climate dynamics/predictability 2. climate change 3. education/outreach/science-informed policy

5. 1. climate dynamics/predictability 2. climate change 3. education/outreach/science-informed policy

6. Gulf of Guinea patternSahel pattern Giannini et al., 2003 (Science), 2005 (Clim. Dyn.)

8. Giannini et al 2003

9. . dynamics: warmer oceans v. stronger monsoons?

10. Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.) 200 hPa h, (u,v) precipitation SST, 850hPa (u,v )

11. Giannini et al., 2005 (Clim. Dyn.) 200 hPa h, (u,v) precipitation SST, 850hPa (u,v )

12. N. Zeng, Science, 7 November 2003

13. SST CMAP ECPC filtered SST anomaly ECPC Tippett 2006 (GRL)

14. August 1984

15. 1. climate dynamics/predictability 2. climate change 3. education/outreach/science-informed policy

16. NASA/GISS analysis of surface temp – linear trend 1950-2000 Hansen et al. 1999 (J. Geophys. Res.) regression of NASA/NSIPP1 Sahel PC and sfc temp Giannini et al. 2003, 2005 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (4AR) simulations with 19 models Biasutti and Giannini 2006 (GRL)

17. 19 Coupled GCM : XX-PI precipitation/surface temperature changes Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)

19. Held et al., PNAS 2005 GFDL CM2.0GMAO(NSIPP1)NCAR CAM3

20. surface air temperature (minus global mean) precipitation Haarsma et al., GRL 2005 2050-2080 minus 1950-1980

21. 1. climate dynamics/predictability 2. climate change 3. education/outreach/science-informed policy

22. Implications: 1. “Farmers freed of blame for Sahel drought” (SciDev.Net) 2. Policy/intervention issues: a. spatial scales: from desertification to global warming b. temporal scales: from early warning to structural change (lessons have already been learned from the past 30 years or so!)

24. how to use scientific knowledge? - global/regional policy - local education/outreach what are local perceptions on the causes of drought? how does Western science relate to them?

27. Lu and Delworth, 2005 (Geophys. Res. Lett.) The relative roles of Atlantic, Indian and Pacific SSTs

28. 19 Coupled GCM : Sahel XX-PI Rainfall Change Biasutti and Giannini, 2006 (GRL)

29. Courtesy of Isaac Held, Jian Lu, Tom Delworth et al, GFDL 21st century outlook for Sahel precipitation

32. Indramayu, Jawa BaratBali Nusa Tenggara Timur IRI Asia-Pacific Regional Program project on: “Climate forecast applications for disaster mitigation in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam”

33. SON(0)1979-2004JFM(1) 1950-1975 Giannini, Robertson, Qian, Li H....

34. DJF(1)SON(0) RegCM3 at 25km resolution (Joshua Qian, Huilan Li) DJF(1)SON(0)