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Comparison of Recent European Climate Trends and Extremes with RegCM3 Future Projections Jeremy Pal Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics.

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Presentation on theme: "Comparison of Recent European Climate Trends and Extremes with RegCM3 Future Projections Jeremy Pal Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics."— Presentation transcript:

1 Comparison of Recent European Climate Trends and Extremes with RegCM3 Future Projections Jeremy Pal Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste, Italy Contributors: Xunqiang Bi, Elfatih Eltahir, Raquel Francisco, Xuejie Gao, Filippo Giorgi

2 Premises/Objectives of the study Climate variability and extremes are of fundamental importance for an assessment of the impacts of climate change. Because of their relatively high spatial and temporal resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can be especially useful in the study of climate variability and extremes. Carry out climate change simulations over the European region for different emission scenarios using an RCM driven by boundary conditions from time-slice GCM simulations

3 PART I: Regional Climate Modeling Brief Overview PART II: Reference Simulation Mean Climate PART III: A2 & B2 Scenario Simulations Mean Interannual Variability Extreme Events

4 PART I: Regional Climate Modeling Brief Overview

5 GCM Global Climate Model (GCM) RCM Nesting GCM forces RCM at the lateral boundaries and the sea surface.

6 Added Value of using a Regional Climate Model for Climate Change Studies. Increased resolution compared to the driving GCM. Fine scale forcing (e.g. topography, landuse, coastlines, lakes, aerosol sources). Mesoscale circulations (e.g. North American Monsoon System). Improved representation of physical processes. Clouds and precipitation, biosphere, boundary layer, radiation, etc. Increased confidence for impacts studies. Can include additional processes not present in the driving GCM. Landuse changes, aerosol effects, lake desiccation, etc.

7 Summary of RegCM3 Core Dynamics: MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994) Non-hydrostatic (in the works) Radiation: CCM3 (Kiehl 1996) Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitation: SUBEX (Pal et al 2000) Cumulus convection: Grell (1993); AS74 & FC80 closure Anthes-Kuo (1977) Betts-Miller (1993) Emanuel (1991) Boundary Layer: Holtslag (1990) Tracers/Aerosols: Qian et al (2001); Solmon Land Surface: BATS (Dickinson et al 1993) SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003) CLM0 (Dai et al 2003) Ocean Fluxes Zeng et al (1998) BATS (Dickinson et al. 1986) Computations Parallel Code (Yeh & Gao) User friendly Multiple platforms (Giorgi et al 1993ab, Pal et al 2005ab) Dynamics: MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994) Non-hydrostatic (in the works) Radiation: CCM3 (Kiehl 1996) Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitation: SUBEX (Pal et al 2000) Cumulus convection: Grell (1993); AS74 & FC80 closure Anthes-Kuo (1977) Betts-Miller (1993) Emanuel (1991) Boundary Layer: Holtslag (1990) Tracers/Aerosols: Qian et al (2001); Solmon Land Surface: BATS (Dickinson et al 1993) SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003) CLM0 (Dai et al 2003) Ocean Fluxes Zeng et al (1998) BATS (Dickinson et al. 1986) Computations Parallel Code (Yeh & Gao) User friendly Multiple platforms

8 1993 Midwest Summer Flood USHCN Observations RegCM3 Ancient Nilometer (Mississippimeter) Date back 1800 B.C. This one calibrated in subjective terms by Pliny the Elder (Dooge 1988) Disaster Abundance Security Happiness Suffering Hunger Record high rainfall (>200 year event)Record high rainfall (>200 year event) Thousands homelessThousands homeless 48 deaths48 deaths $15-20 billion in Damage$15-20 billion in Damage

9 1988 Great North American Drought CRU Observations RegCM Ancient Nilometer (Mississippimeter) Date back 1800 B.C. This one calibrated in subjective terms by Pliny the Elder (Dooge 1988) Disaster Abundance Security Happiness Suffering Hunger Driest/warmest since 1936Driest/warmest since 1936 ~10,000 deaths~10,000 deaths $30 billion in Agricultural Damage$30 billion in Agricultural Damage

10 Precipitation over East Asia: CRU ObservationsRegCM3 September 1994 thru August 1995

11 Scenario Simulations Design of Numerical Experiments

12 Socio-Economic Assumptions Emissions Scenarios Concentration Calculations Biogeochemical/Chemistry Models Global Climate Change Simulation AOGCMs, Radiative Forcing Impacts Impact Models Interactions and Feedbacks Land Use Change Policy Responses: Adaptation and Mitigation Regional Climate Change Simulations Regionalization Techniques Cascade of Uncertainties in Climate Change Prediction Natural Forcings

13 Model Configuration ICTP RegCM3 50 km 121 x 100 x 14 HadAMH SST, GHG & Sulfate Aerosol effects (direct & indirect) Simulations Reference run A2 & B2 Scenario runs Mediterranean Focused

14 Regional Climate Model Schematic RotatedMercatorProjection GLCCVegetation HadAMH3 Initial and Boundary Conditions Hadley & OI Sea Surface Temperatures USGSTopography HadAMH3 Aerosols

15 SCENARIOS CO 2 Emissions (Gt C) CO 2 Concentrations (ppm) A2 B2

16 PART II: Reference Simulation Comparison to Observations Giorgi, Bi, Pal, Clim. Dynamics 2004a

17 Winter Means Reference Period

18 Surface Air Temperature: Reference Simulation Winter RegCM3 Winter Observations

19 Precipitation: Reference Simulation Winter RegCM3 Winter Observations

20 Summer Means Reference Period

21 Surface Air Temperature: Reference Simulation Summer RegCM3 Summer Observations

22 Precipitation: Reference Simulation Summer RegCM3 Summer Observations

23 PART III: A2 & B2 Scenario Simulations Comparison to the Reference Simulation Giorgi, Bi, Pal, Clim. Dynamics 2004b Pal, Giorgi, Bi, GRL 2004

24 Winter Means Scenarios

25 Temperature Change: Future-Reference WARM HOT A2-REF Winter RegCM3 B2-REF Winter RegCM3 WARM

26 Precipitation Change: Future-Reference WET A2-REF Winter RegCM3 B2-REF Winter RegCM3 DRY

27 Sea Level Pressure Change: Future-Reference L H L H H A2-REF Winter RegCM3 B2-REF Winter RegCM3

28 Winter Sea Level Pressure Change: B2 & A2 Scenarios DJF HadAMH: B2 DJF RegCM: B2 DJF RegCM: A2DJF HadAMH: A2 L H L H L H L H H H

29 Summer Means Scenarios

30 Temperature Change: Future-Reference WARM HOT A2-REF Summer RegCM3 B2-REF Summer RegCM3 WARM

31 Precipitation Change: Future-Reference DRY WET DRY WET A2-REF Summer RegCM3 B2-REF Summer RegCM3

32 Sea Level Pressure Change: Future-Reference H L H L A2-REF Summer RegCM3 B2-REF Summer RegCM3

33 Winter Sea Level Pressure Change: B2 & A2 Scenarios JJA HadAMH: B2 JJA RegCM: B2 JJA RegCM: A2JJA HadAMH: A2 H L H L H L H L

34 Interannual Variability Scenarios

35 Map of Domain & Topography SEM

36 Sub-region Averages DJF, A2 DJF, B2 JJA, A2 JJA, B2 Surface Air Temperature: Interannual Variability Changes SEM RegCM3: Future-REF

37 Sub-region Averages Precipitation: Interannual Variability Changes RegCM3: Future-REF DJF, A2 DJF, B2 JJA, A2 JJA, B2 SEM

38 Extremes How do recent climatic changes compare to scenarios? Pal, Giorgi, Bi, GRL 2004

39 Recent European Extreme Summers The western European summer drought of 2003 is considered one of the severest on record. 20,000 heat related casualties in Western Europe. Worst harvest since World War II. In contrast, during 2002, many European countries experienced one of their wettest summers on record. Weather systems brought widespread heavy rainfall to central Europe, causing severe flooding along all the major rivers. The Elbe River reached its highest level in over 500 years of record Both of these contrasting events resulted in severe damages and losses. This study addresses whether these seemingly opposites in extremes are consistent the current climate change projections.

40 Changes in Summer 500 hPa Geopotential Heights (  meters) B2-Reference ( ) minus ( ) NCEP Reanalysis ( ) minus ( )

41 Changes in Summer Temperature B2-Reference ( ) minus ( ) (C) CRU Observations ( ) minus ( )

42 Changes in Summer Precipitation B2-Reference ( ) minus ( ) (% change) CRU Observations ( ) minus ( )

43 Changes in Summer Temperature: B2-Reference (C)(C)(C) Mean Surface ( ) minus ( ) Interannual Variability ( ) minus ( )

44 Changes in Summer Extremes: B2-Reference (% change) (  Days) Dry Spell Length ( ) minus ( ) Max 5-Day Precipitation ( ) minus ( )

45 Precipitation Distribution (Hypothetical) REF  ref  ref B2  B2  B2 More Droughts More Floods Drier Summers

46 Summary & Conclusions The RegCM3 reproduces the main features of observed temperature and precipitation. A general consistency of change patterns is found between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Warming: 2-7 o C in the A2 scenario is found over land areas. The B2 scenario is 1-2 o C lower. Precipitation: Increases in Northern Europe during summer and winter Increases in the Mediterranean in DJF and decreases in JJA. Interannual variability: Mostly increases in JJA Little change in DJF. Extremes: Increases flooding in Northern Europe Increased summer flood and drought in the Mediterranean. Projected changes of mean summer European climate are broadly consistent with the observed changes.

47 谢谢


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