1. NS4301 Summer Term 2015 Democratic Trends and Economic Performance

2. Overview Oxford Analytica, “Africa: Democratic Trends Produce Mixed Results,” December 23, 2014 Over past two decades majority of SSA states have adopted multiparty political systems. However, levels of democratization are more varied Reflecting this several types of political system can be identified: Consolidated democracies Countries stuck in transition, and Stable autocracies Each has important implications for The level of political inclusion Quality of economic governance, and The propensity for violence and political instability 2

3. Country Types I Consolidated democracies – includes countries such as Benin Botswana Cape Verde Ghana Mauritius Namibia, Senegal, and South Africa These countries tend to perform better in economic and political terms. 3

4. Country Types II Countries stuck in transition – most common Burundi Cote d’Ivorie DRC Kenya Liberia Malawi Mozambique Nigeria Sierra Leone Uganda and Zimbabwe Countries prone to political instability and violence around elections 4

5. Country Types III Stable autocracies – less common Angola Cameroon Chad Ethiopia Djibouti and Rwanda Tend to be more stable than democratic counterparts, but are typically more corrupt and repressive No evidence that these different trajectories are converging Countries as Cameroon and Chad continue to fall behind the continent’s consolidate democracies in terms of Opening political space, and Sustainable economic gains 5

6. Country Types IV 6

7. Country Types V 7

8. Group Characteristics I Consolidated democracies On average these countries Perform well in terms of GDP growth Register higher levels of accountability and Lower levels of corruption Research suggests Democratic regimes in Africa tend to enjoy higher levels of economic growth This “democratic dividend” is greater the longer they are democratic Takes time for benefits of democracy to take effect – as increased scrutiny takes place over economic policy Not immune from backsliding 8

9. Group Characteristics II Countries stuck in transition Neither fully authoritarian nor fully democratic Often referred to as electoral-authoritarian systems – have outward appearance of democracies but in reality do not allow full free and fairly fair elections Contradiction between relatively open competition and governments unwilling to transfer power Means that elections very tense affairs Have the capacity to destabilize the wider political system and undermine economic growth 9

10. Group Characteristics III Stable autocracies Elections are held but restrictions place on opposition so great they rarely have more than a tiny fraction of vote Few constraints placed on leaders or ruling parties Many survive not because well run, but because they have access to large holdings of natural resources like oil Exceptions Governments of Ethiopia and Rwanda two of best performing in terms of Economic growth and Corruption Due to the determination of political elites to stay true to their development plans 10

11. Country Characterics III Stable autocracies (contd.) Regimes often more stable in short term Do not need to rely on pubic support to govern as in democracies Nor do they allow opposition parties to make kind of gains that lead to electoral crisis. However not necessarily stable in long term Citizens in many authoritarian states deeply frustrated and angry about their treatment by the government Makes ruling parties vulnerable during moments of political uncertainty Selection of a new leader, or Decision of an existing leader to stand for more terms 11

12. Assessment Consolidated democracies likely to continue making further economic and political gains Vast majority will languish in transitional phase where political instability risks are the highest. Authoritarian states will fail to curb corruption and build effective political institutions Small number of “developmental authoritarian” regimes – Ethiopia and Rwanda could offer valuable lessons on economic transformation. 12