1. THE ORIGINS, CONDUCT, AND LESSONS OF WWI 1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability By Scott Sagan September 2014 Oana Anghelachi

2. Scott Sagan Ph.D. from Harvard University (1983) Professor of Political Science at Stanford University served as a consultant to the office of the Secretary of Defense research on nuclear weapons policy and nuclear disarmament one of the leading pessimist scholars about nuclear proliferation co-authored book with Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed

3. Discussion Questions underlying causes of the WWI What were the most important underlying causes of the WWI? From these causes, who/what From these causes, who/what should have been held accountable for the war?

4. The “cult of the offensive” One of the most popular and well known explanation military organizations display a strong preference for offensive forces and doctrines new military technology: machine guns, chemical gas (tear gas) – highly favor the offensive

5. The “Cult of the Offensive” has overlooked the more fundamental CAUSES of the World War I offensive doctrines: the political objectives alliance commitments of the great powers

6. The “cult of the offensive” Problems (3) exaggerates the probability that critical offensive military operations would fail. need to mobilize quickly to implement the Schlieffen Plan’s The Schlieffen Plan came very close to succeeding. The French, call the decisive battle outside Paris “the Miracle of the Marne”

7. The “cult of the offensive” Problems (3) it ignores the fundamental issue of military balances. since Clausewitz: defense is almost always “easier” in land warfare (because of the advantages of cover and the capability to choose and prepare terrain and fortify positions) By focusing on the effects of military technology on the “offense/defense balance”, the “cult of the offensive” theory fails to consider adequately the quantity or quality of military forces opposed to one another in a particular territorial campaign.

8. The “cult of the offensive” Problems (3) ignores the critical role of states’ political objectives in determining their military doctrines. overlooks a key point: offensive military doctrines are needed not only by states with expansionist war aims, but also by states that have a strong interest in protecting an exposed ally. the Russians needed an offensive capability against Austria- Hungary, in order to be able to prevent the Austrians from attacking Serbia with overwhelming offensive superiority.

9. The Trivial explanation Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian Nationalist on June 28,1914.

10. Causes of WWI The immediate origins of the war: decisions taken by statesmen and generals during the July Crisis of 1914 (caused by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand)

11. The underlying causes (3) July crisis 1.the inability of the Russians to mobilize rapidly. knock France out of the war first the Schlieffen Plan’s emphasis on rapid mobilization and attacks through Luxembourg and Belgium.

12. The underlying causes (3) July crisis 2.the lack of permanent Belgian defenses at the critical railway junction in Liege. opportunity to take Liege before the forts are fortified German incentives to mobilize and attack quickly would have been reduced.

13. The underlying causes (3) July crisis 3.“England’s attitude is mysterious.” the uncertainty concerning British intentions to intervene in a continental war if Germany attacked France

14. Who? The CAUSES of the war are hugely complicated with the death of the Archduke only setting in motion existing forces. No one nation deserves all the blame. But German recklessness contributed more than anything else to make a conflict intended to settle a local score escalate into a European war.

15. Who? The Kaiser was one of three men in Germany who took the key decisions which resulted in war. The others were: the chancellor – Theobald von Bethmann- Hollweg general von Moltke, head of the army.

16. Who? Berlin’s blank check Germany’s support against Serbia. pressed the Austrians to hurry their invasion to preempt the czar. Keystone of the argument that Germany was most blameworthy for the horrors that followed.

17. Who? Germany’s leadership – extremely reckless accepting the risk of promoting a small Balkan war they would trigger a huge European one. the Germans refused to take the one step that could have prevented a general European catastrophy, telling the Austrians to pull back, instead, they themselves prepared to mobilize against Russia they deserve the most blame for all that followed.