1. Demographic dimension of CEE. Is CEE region dying? Professor Krystyna Iglicka

2. Current and Future situation Recently, Central and Eastern Europe have undergone sudden, negative demographic changes. The permanently low fertility rate, negative or close to zero natural increase rates and prolonged average life expectancy are inevitably leading to a decrease in population and an acceleration of the aging of the population in the region. As early as 2000, the countries with the lowest level of fertility in Europe were Bulgaria and Romania; there, the rate was fluctuating around 1.08. In Poland, this indicator amounted to 1.21 in 2007, thus placing Poland near the bottom for the 27 EU member states – at the moment it is oscillating around 1.3.

3. Current and Future situation A report published by EUROSTAT in August 2008 warned that by 2060 Poland will have reached the top position in the EU for percentage of population over 65 with 36.2 per cent. In 2006 this age group constituted 13.5 percent. In this respect, Poland is closely followed by most of the states in the region: Slovakia, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria and Czech Republic (all about 32 percent). If you also take into account strong trends of emigration of young people in some of the states in the region, plus deficient immigration, this will undoubtedly result in further, strong drops of population and adverse structural changes.

4. Current and Future situation The demographic security of the Baltic states– and similarly of Poland– is especially threatened by the fact that unlike emigration before the 2008 crisis, people from those countries started leaving the region with whole families. In the long-term perspective, this will have a profound impact on the functioning of the states. Firstly, the negative birth rate, along with the current migration rate will significantly accelerate the process of aging in those countries, while the increase of pensioners will burden the states budget because of the benefits due to be paid to them.

5. Current and Future situation According to the Eurostat forecast, in 2050 the populations of Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania will go down by over 20 percent from current levels. As for Poland and Slovakia, this figure is approximately 18 per cent. The population of Hungary and Czech Republic will decrease by 10 per cent compared to the year 2012. In absolute numbers, this means that the total population figures of the four states in the region: Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary will, by the middle of this century, have gone down by 10-12 million.

6. Changes in population till 2060 (in % 2006 =100%) Source: EUROSTAT

7. Consequences What are the economic and geopolitical consequences of the fact that in less than 50 years every third inhabitant of Poland (inhabited by 30 million people) will be retired? Most of all, they include rapid decrease in total production, decline of GDP and, as a result, a decreased level of wealth for the population. As for geopolitical impact, Poland will probably lose some of its importance on the international scene. It is also plausible that its defence capabilities will weaken, whereas internally, it is bound to observe more conservative behaviours, as well as growing importance of pressure groups representing the needs of the elderly.

8. Possible solutions There are no easy solutions to guarantee demographic security in the region. Neither pro-family policies alone (even based on the French model) nor a liberal migration policy which is open to new-comers with various cultural backgrounds will constitute effective instruments as long as they are not used in conjunction. In short, what is necessary are both costly pro-family policies like those introduced in France and a liberal migration policy similar to the one applied in the UK or in France.

9. Possible solutions As far as immigration is concerned, the states in the region have applied, and are still applying, restrictive immigration policies, unfavourable to settling in their countries. Following 1989, immigrants appeared within the group of countries in much lower numbers than in Western Europe. Furthermore, their stay in the country was not linked to settlement, but rather to seasonal work, mainly in the grey market. The majority of immigrants in those countries belong to a similar culture circle.

10. Possible solutions In the cases of Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary, it’s worth paying attention to the fact that a significant percentage of migrants in those countries are nationals of neighbouring countries: Slovaks in Czech Republic and, to a lesser degree, Czechs in Slovakia. In Hungary, Romanian nationals form a particularly numerous group most of whom are ethnic Hungarians. They perform seasonal work and provide home care and nursing services. You can occasionally hear the argument in Hungary saying that, in order to face the challenge of the forthcoming demographic crisis, the state should make use of the 1.5 million potential workers of Hungarian origin living in neighbouring countries.

11. Possible solutions However, the prevalent view is that the migration processes could put the existence of Hungarian minorities in those states at risk. Polish post-1989 migration policies have stressed the ethnicity and have been mostly aimed at creating repatriation opportunities for Poles from Asian republics of the former Soviet Union. In practical terms however actions taken did not include large populations of Poles in Ukraine, Belarus or Lithuania. Maintaining their existence is one of the named strategic goals of Polish foreign policy.

12. Possible solutions It is now clear that the German model of migration policy applied throughout the region has not worked. Germany faces as dramatic demographic prospects as most of the other Central European states. In 2050, the German population will go down from its current 82 million to 72 million. According to some forecasts it could even plunge as low as 66 million; 40% of the society will be over 60. At the same time, France has the best demographic perspectives on the Old Continent. In 2050 it will be the most populous European state with 73 million inhabitants of whom only 30 percent will be over 60. Positive demographic trends can also be seen in the UK.

13. Possible solutions Indeed, there is no other way. Poland, along with the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, has to follow the steps of those countries of the Old Continent which supported the demographic development of their societies and were not afraid that the “strangers” might annihilate their ethnic identity. The question is, are we ready to do it yet?

14. Thank you!