1. MPR 2008:1 080213

2. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

3. Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

6. Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.

7. Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro area Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

8. Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 at different points in time Annual percentage change Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank 20072008

9. Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the world Annual percentage change Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

10. Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market index for goods Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

11. Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current account TCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

12. Figure 11. TCW exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

13. Figure 12. GDP Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

14. Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

15. Figure 14. Labour force and number employed Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

16. Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old and percentage of unemployed 15-74 years according to the new EU ordinance Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

17. Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

18. Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

19. Figure 18. CPI and CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

20. Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

21. Figure 20. CPIX excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

22. Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different occasions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

23. Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasions Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

24. Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different occasions Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

25. Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

26. Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

27. Table 3. Key figures Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007. Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

28. Table 4. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

29. Figure 24. Repo rate assumptions Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

30. Figure 25. CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

31. Figure 26. GDP Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

32. Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP) Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

33. Figure 28. Labour market gaps Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

34. Figure 29. Number of hours worked Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

35. Figure 30. Employment rate Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

36. Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the ILO definition Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

37. Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial turmoil Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

38. Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial turmoil Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

39. Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater financial turmoil Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

40. Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international inflation Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

41. Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international inflation Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

42. Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher international inflation Per cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

43. Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil price USD/barrel Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

44. Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates and government bond rates Basis points Source: The Riksbank

45. Figure 40. Interbank rates in Sweden Per cent Source: The Riksbank Note. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.

46. Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy Basis points Source: The Riksbank

47. Figure 42. Interest rates in Sweden Per cent Source: SBAB and the Riksbank

48. Figure 43. GDP Annual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce

49. Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in the United States Annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

50. Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area. Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007 Source: European Commission

51. Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households and for manufacturing companies in the United Kingdom Balance, deviations from averages 1990-2007 Source: European Commission Note. Broken lines are averages of the respective curves from 1990.

52. Figure 47. HICP in the euro area Annual percentage change Source: Eurostat

53. Figure 48. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the United States Per cent Source: The Riksbank

54. Diagram 49 Monetary policy expectations in Sweden Per cent Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

55. Figure 50. Long-term interest rates Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

56. Figure 51. Exchange rate movements SEK/EUR and SEK/USD Source: The Riksbank

57. Figure 52. TCW exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

58. Figure 53. Stock market movements Index, 1 January 1999 = 100 Source: Reuters Ecowin

59. Figure 54. The money supply Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

60. Figure 55. House prices and total lending to Swedish households Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

61. Figure 56. GDP Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

62. Figure 57. Confidence indicators for major industries Seasonally adjusted balance Source: National Institute of Economic Research

63. Figure 58. Gross fixed capital formation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

64. Figure 59. Foreign trade with goods at fixed prices Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank Note. Three month moving average

65. Figure 60. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

66. Figure 61. Household expectations of the future Balance Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

67. Figure 62. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices. Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Swedish Public Employment Service Note. Three month moving average.

68. Figure 63. Vacancies and redundancy notices Thousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden

69. Figure 64. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sector Balance and annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

70. Figure 65. Labour productivity for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

71. Figure 66. Estimated HP gaps Percentage deviation from HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

72. Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

73. Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally adjusted data Source: National Institute of Economic Research

74. Figure 69. Employment rate Proportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour force Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.

75. Figure 70. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office Note. Three month moving average.

76. Figure 71. Unit labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

77. Figure 72. Wage share Labour costs' share of the added value Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Four-quarter moving average.

78. Figure 73. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations of inflation one year ahead Annual percentage change Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

79. Figure 74. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years ahead Annual percentage change Source: Prospera Research AB

80. Figure 75. The difference between nominal and inflation-linked five-year rates (break-even inflation) Percentage points Source: The Riksbank

81. Figure 76. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

82. Figure 77. CPIX excluding energy, broken down into goods, services and food Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

83. Figure 78. Producer prices Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

84. Figure 79. Commodity prices UDS, annual percentage change Source: The Economist

85. Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden The Riksbank

86. Table 5. Indicators for GDP in the short term Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

87. Figure B1. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for the effects of changes in indirect taxes Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

88. Figure B2. CPIX inflation and direct and indirect effects of changes in energy prices during the period 2002-2007 Annual percentage change and percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

89. Figure B3. The Economists commodity price index for food USD, annual percentage change Source: The Economist

90. Figure B4. Consumer and producer food prices Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

91. Figure B5. Food price in the CPI in some countries Annual percentage change Sources: The respective countries’ statistical agencies

92. Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rate Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

93. Table A2. Change in CPI compared to change in CPIX Annual percentage change and percentage points Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Contribution to CPI-inflation, per cent

94. Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and public finances Per cent, annual average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

95. Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank *New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.

96. Table A5. GDP and GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

97. Table A6. Output, employment and unemployment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise else indicated Sources: National Labour market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Percentage of the labour force

98. Table A7. Wages, productivity and labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

99. Table A8. Repo rate Per cent, annual average Source: The Riksbank

100. Table A9. CPIX Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

101. Table A10. GDP Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Source: The Riksbank

102. Table A11. Hours worked Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

103. Table A12. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 year- olds, according to ILO definition Per cent of labour force, calendar-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

104. Table A13. Scenario with greater financial turmoil Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent, annual average Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.

105. Table A14. Scenario with higher international inflation Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent, annual average Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.

106. Table A15. Scenario with higher oil price Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent, annual average Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.