1. The Transformative Power of Remediation Steven Spurling City College of San Francisco

2. The Questions Are English and Math levels related to success in a wide variety of college (IGETC) academic areas? If so, does remedial course-taking in English and mathematics allow students who start in college at lower levels to perform equally to students who start at much higher levels?

3. The dataset 10 Years of Academic History 88,000 Students 350,000 IGETC Course Enrollments 20 IGETC* Areas Nearly a Million Class Meetings Untold Student Time Investment Native-Speaking Students Only – NO ESL * Intersegmental General Education Transfer Curriculum (IGETC)

4. Two Hypothetical Patterns The Student Learning Outcomes Pattern The Academic Talent Pattern We will sift through the dataset looking to determine which of these two patterns explains student success.

5. The Student Learning Outcomes Pattern - Hypothetical Economics GPA Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics Placed-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-Arithmetic1.50 2-Elementary Algebra2.00 3-Intermediate Algebra2.15 4-College Algebra2.45 5-Precalculus2.65 6-Calculus2.90

6. The Academic Talent Pattern Economics GPA Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics Placed-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-Arithmetic1.50 2-Elementary Algebra2.001.50 3-Intermediate Algebra2.152.001.50 4-College Algebra2.452.152.001.50 5-Precalculus2.652.452.152.001.50 6-Calculus2.902.702.452.152.001.50

7. The Actual Pattern Economics GPA Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics Placed-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-Arithmetic1.50 2-Elementary Algebra2.001.88 3-Intermediate Algebra2.152.302.08 4-College Algebra2.722.292.342.33 5-Precalculus2.572.792.592.662.93 6-Calculus2.892.762.882.772.713.17

8. Actual Number of Students Last Passed MATH Level Before Economics Placed-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-Arithmetic1162 2-Elementary Algebra2365414 3-Intermediate Algebra1471666236 4-College Algebra1680553395155 5-Precalculus10352131322945 6-Calculus17627112186456

9. The Data Layout Target GPAEnglish LevelEnglish CoursesMath LevelMath Courses 29253 02020 48362 27120 38342 36453 38261 06031 25321 37542 4 25441 28283 16232 47232 27521 05010

10. IGETC Areas IGETC CodeIGETC Area I1AEnglish Composition I1BCritical Thinking I1COral Communication I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning I3AArts I3BHumanities I4AAnthropology I4BEconomics I4CEthnic Studies I4DGender Studies I4EGeography I4FHistory I4GInterdisciplinary I4HPolitical Science I4IPsychology I4JSociology I5APhysical Sciences I5BBiological Sciences I6ALanguage

11. CCSF Sequences EnglishMathematics LevelCourseIGETCAreaCourseIGETCArea 1 L Arithmetic 2 90, 91X Elementary Algebra 3 92 Intermediate Algebra 4 93, 94 College AlgebraI2A Math Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning 5 96 PrecalculusI2A 6 1A English CompositionCalculus II2A 7 1B, 1C, 401BCritical ThinkingCalculus 2I2A 8 Calculus 3I2A

12. Zero Order Correlations Numbe r of Cases Zero Order Correlations EnglishMath IGETCDescriptionLevelClassesLevelClasses I1AEnglish Composition163400.021-0.1710.068-0.016 I1BCritical Thinking30410.056-0.1430.0290.003 I1COral Communication90640.2740.0940.2320.16 I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning249990.14-0.0350.1650.058 I3AArts241240.3190.1570.2640.197 I3BHumanities727850.3580.1240.2450.173 I4AAnthropology73670.3690.1140.2240.165 I4BEconomics151610.3350.0760.340.17 I4CEthnic Studies99490.3130.1470.2580.174 I4DGender Studies10510.2780.0450.2180.111 I4EGeography8030.4480.150.3210.243 I4FHistory256020.4210.1780.3050.202 I4GInterdisciplinary21890.3440.170.2160.172 I4HPoli Sci220660.4060.0960.2720.171 I4IPsychology252170.4470.1110.3310.18 I4JSociology143640.3940.1040.3110.169 I5APhysical Sciences315770.2780.0320.2510.15 I5BBiological Sciences236410.3250.010.2650.132 I6ALanguage162660.2620.0850.2380.153

13. Regression Estimates – allowed entry into a stepwise regression at a.0001 level EnglishMath igetcDescriptionInterceptLevelClassesLevelClasses I1AEnglish Composition2.55 -0.160.06 I1BCritical Thinking0.670.33-0.19 I1COral Communication1.300.20-0.050.09 I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning0.920.16-0.130.11 I3AArts1.420.18 0.11 I3BHumanities0.970.26-0.100.060.04 I4AAnthropology0.910.30-0.120.07 I4BEconomics0.690.22-0.160.19 I4CEthnic Studies1.680.18-0.050.10 i4DGender Studies1.650.22 I4EGeography0.590.34-0.190.12 I4FHistory0.590.29-0.060.12 I4GInterdisciplinary1.270.24 I4HPoli Sci0.850.29-0.130.10 I4IPsychology0.260.35-0.170.15 I4JSociology0.640.29-0.130.15 I5APhysical Sciences0.810.21-0.170.10 I5BBiological Sciences0.830.26-0.170.11 I6ALanguage1.690.16-0.070.11

14. GPA and N in English Composition English LevelPlaced-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-L1.75 2-90/91X1.92 3-922.202.82 4-93/942.822.332.44 5-962.622.602.382.641.00 6-1A2.782.552.392.262.182.02 Number of Students English LevelPlaced-No Class Levels Taken 12345 1-L4 2-90/91X13 3-92511 4-93/9422129 5-961564313111 6-1A43144455258813751429165

15. Summary Effects Sorted by Impact Summary Effect English EffectMath Effect Math/Englis h Ratio igetcDescription I4FHistory0.360.240.120.51 I4IPsychology0.330.180.150.81 I4JSociology0.310.160.150.96 I3AArts0.290.180.110.63 I4EGeography0.270.150.120.84 I4HPoli Sci0.270.160.100.63 I3BHumanities0.270.170.100.59 I1COral Communication0.250.160.090.59 I4AAnthropology0.250.180.070.42 I4BEconomics0.250.060.193.05 I4GInterdisciplinary0.24 0.00 I4CEthnic Studies0.230.130.100.81 i4DGender Studies0.22 0.00 I5BBiological Sciences0.200.090.111.19 I6ALanguage0.200.080.111.34 I5APhysical Sciences0.140.040.102.31 I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning0.140.030.113.82 I1BCritical Thinking0.14 0.00 I1AEnglish Composition-0.10-0.160.06-0.36

16. Sorted By Relative Math/English Importance Summary Effect English EffectMath Effect Math/Englis h Ratio igetcDescription I2AMath Concepts and Quantitative Reasoning0.140.030.113.82 I4BEconomics0.250.060.193.05 I5APhysical Sciences0.140.040.102.31 I6ALanguage0.200.080.111.34 I5BBiological Sciences0.200.090.111.19 I4JSociology0.310.160.150.96 I4EGeography0.270.150.120.84 I4CEthnic Studies0.230.130.100.81 I4IPsychology0.330.180.150.81 I4HPolitical Science0.270.160.100.63 I3AArts0.290.180.110.63 I3BHumanities0.270.170.100.59 I1COral Communication0.250.160.090.59 I4FHistory0.360.240.120.51 I4AAnthropology0.250.180.070.42 I4GInterdisciplinary0.24 0.00 i4DGender Studies0.22 0.00 I1BCritical Thinking0.14 0.00 I1AEnglish Composition-0.10-0.160.06-0.36

17. Two Major Questions How do students do once they get to where ever they are going educationally? How many of them get there? The first question needs to be answered before the second one has any meaning.

18. Question 2 – The Completion of Transfer- Course Rate of New First Time Students subject level1998200020022004Grand TotalP ENGL 13%2%4%6%3.48%73.69% 210%14%19%17%15.33%81.19% 321% 27% 24.24%81.67% 434%31%40%35%35.57%81.32% 5 - 1 Level Below Transfer41%50%53%54%49.83%79.28% ENGL Total 21%27%33%29%28.02% ESL -21%0%2%0%0.82%75.38% 0%1%2%4%1.86%76.68% 01%4%2%11%4.42%78.66% 13%8%10%17%9.31%80.59% 217%16%23%28%19.97%83.61% 3 - End of ESL22%27%32%44%29.92%84.17% ESL Total 7%8%9%15%9.77% MATH 1-Arithmetic9%11%9%8%8.97%70.86% 2-Elementary Algebra27% 25%26.80%76.84% 3-Intermediate Algebra57%49%50%51%51.03%79.91% MATH Total 21%23% 20%21.82% Grand Total 16%20%22% 20.05%

19. Are the progressively lower completion rates for lower placing students in the prior slide a result of lower placing students being filtered out because of their lack of academic capability or because they are required to take more class levels? To Complete a transfer level: –Arithmetic students must Enroll in arithmetic Pass it Enroll in elementary algebra Pass it Enroll in intermediate algebra Pass it Enroll in a transfer level math class Pass it An EIGHT step process

20. What’s P? How to compare the ability to complete the sequence of courses of higher placing and lower placing students? –The march to D.C. analogy. A simplifying assumption: all of the percentages are the same p = the average enrollment and success rate. T = transfer level completion S = steps in the sequence S = (l + 1)*2 – 1 Where l = levels below transfer t = p s p = t 1/s

21. What’s P in English? P (L) = 11 th root of.0348 =.739 P (90) = 9 th root of.153 =.812 P (92) = 7 th root of.242 =.817 P (93) = 5 th root of.356 =.813 P (96) = 3 rd root of.498 =.793

22. And 8 Years Out? 4 Year Tracking8 Year Tracking subject levelExponentCompletionP PP Change ENGL 1112.11%70.40%7.37%78.89%8.49% 2911.84%78.89%16.76%82.00%3.10% 3721.11%80.08%27.27%83.06%2.98% 4532.35%79.79%35.58%81.33%1.54% 5 - 1 Level Below Transfer346.20%77.30%50.54%79.66%2.35% ENGL Total 24.69% 29.41% ESL -2170.60%74.03%1.81%78.97%4.94% 150.33%68.26%1.30%74.87%6.61% 0132.50%75.29%5.38%79.87%4.58% 1115.61%76.95%7.62%79.14%2.18% 2916.59%81.91%20.09%83.67%1.76% 3 - End of ESL723.56%81.34%26.44%82.69%1.35% ESL Total 7.71% 10.12% MATH 1-Arithmetic79.55%71.49%13.47%75.10%3.60% 2- Elementary Algebra526.92%76.92%32.62%79.93%3.01% 3- Intermediate Algebra351.90%80.36%55.70%82.28%1.91% MATH Total 22.13% 26.62% Grand Total 18.13% 21.99%

23. IT’S THE LENGTH OF THE SEQUENCE!!! P is very similar across disciplines and from one level to the next. Students at the lower levels are not less likely to succeed and re-enroll at any given point. Their lower completion rates are related to the number of steps they have to complete! It’s the length of the sequence!

24. Conclusions Academic Talent or Learning Outcomes? –It would seem to be Learning outcomes however in English there is grade slippage that impacts performance exterior to English. Social promotion or the soft ‘C’ or both? Sequence length or filtering of less capable students who enter the sequence at lower levels? –The exponent is the length of the sequence. –P represents the equality of capability across levels. –It would seem to be sequence length (the exponent) that lowers end-of-sequence completion more than differences in P – average point-in-time success and enrollment rates – by level. –P declines markedly at the lowest levels only in a four year examination. In an 8 year look, P levels out across levels. The Bottom-bottom line. –We can deal with many issues. These include everything from learning outcomes to sequence length to grade slippage to heterogeneity of ability. We can’t affect academic talent. –Given the nature of our populations, low placing and part-time, we need to track them over longer periods to time. Our model might be continuous education over long periods of time. –The transformative power of remediation or the second press? What’s our job?

25. Transfer Completion by Levels below Transfer and Average Success and Enrollment Rate