1. 1 FNR Foresight Launch event Phase 2 16th of October 2006

2. 2 Aim of the exercise ■Identification of research domains in the public sector with short-term and/or long-term socio-economic interest for Luxembourg society ■Identify areas on which to concentrate public investment for R&D with a view to develop real centres of S/T excellence in Luxembourg ■New FNR programmes including:  Programme priority axes  Programme objectives ■Clarification and dissemination of strategic aim of FNR programmes among stakeholders ■Consolidation of communication networks amongst stakeholders

3. 3 FNR Foresight outline Phase 1 FNR Programme Evaluation Mapping R&D in Luxembourg Trends at international level Diagnosis Building Strategic Scenarios Background data report Strategy Building Exploratory Workshop FNR Board and Sci. Council meeting Priorities Building Interviews 60 major stakeholders Questionnaires > 30% response rate Young researchers workshop Data analysis Data collection (General lack of data) Priorities/Recommendations to the Ministries FNR programmes Phase 2 Internet Forum

4. 4 FNR evaluation

5. 5 Key evaluation findings ■Supported 55 projects since 2000 with circa 49 million Euro committed (March 06) out of 57.7 million Euro ■Funded an additional 1 919 person months in research projects ■Invested in unique high profile research infrastructure ■Reinforced evaluation and monitoring of research outputs ■Helped to create new interactions – almost 50% of the projects have involvement of public or private sector actors ■Too early to demonstrate strong socio-economic impacts

6. 6 Key issues ■Linking better with all relevant ministries ■Better monitoring of programme achievements  Need for indicators to measure contribution to programme aims  Need to clarify role of Steering Groups ■Developing stakeholder confidence in project evaluation ■Improving quality and consistency of programme descriptions ■Prioritising knowledge management within FNR

7. 7 Stakeholder Views: Interviews ■Total of 50 2-hour interviews + 9 phone interviews Interviewees Minister & Secretary of State, Members of Parliament (Lux. and EU), Ministries, Agencies 13 CRPS, CEPS, University of Luxembourg, other public inst.: 23 Private sector 17 Universities abroad, Institutions abroad 6

8. 8 Young researchers Workshop ■Collect young researchers views on:  Lux. research landscape  Identify, validate and assess emerging research priorities ■5 Workshops with 100 participants  Physical Sciences and Engineering  ICT  Biomedical Sciences  Environmental Sciences  Social Sciences and Humanities ■Response of young researchers ambivalent:  « Good to be asked » (never been before)  Did not know what to answer (« not the right people to ask »)  A lot of current problems raised (administration, collaboration, etc.)  follow-up important to get young researchers to « think foresight »

9. 9 Stakeholder views ■Researchers see the impact of their activity more as contributing to incremental rather than radical innovation ■There is a need to match views from a diverse range of stakeholders (public and private sectors) ■Researchers support the need for prioritisation, but on their own terms :  New domains are not prioritised over old  Fundamental research receives equal support to applied research  Socio-economic outputs, do not only mean economic outputs  Investment in people receives stronger support relative to infrastructure

10. 10 Top issues raised in the online questionnaire Strategy development: ■“Luxembourg needs to commit to a national R&D policy: public and private stakeholders have to be integrated and committed to the same overall targets; national cooperation at all levels is important for the overall success of R&D activities.” Criteria for selection of R&D fields: ■“I think Luxembourg should not try to win any 'Nobel Prizes' by doing research in novel and 'hip' areas, but should focus on essential research which will help the country's welfare and economy in the short and long run.” Research system parameters: ■“The focus is in my feeling too much on applied research. Applied research of tomorrow was always and will always be the fundamental research of today. So fundamental research has to be made to assure a future applied research.”

11. 11 Top issues…continued Research culture: ■“Encourage exposure to international research community by facilitating international collaborative projects. Encourage (national) visibility of the research activities in the different projects (FNR has a role as an information dissemination platform).” Funding process: ■“Continuously monitor scientific quality and productivity. Best way is via peer review (including site visits) by outside experts. Regularly demand accountability from researchers and administrators to ensure that public funds are well spent. Support what works, abolish what doesn’t.” Human resource development: ■“It is important to create a critical mass of experienced researchers and infrastructure in Luxembourg to attract scientists from abroad.”

12. 12 Balance to be sought in objectives for FNR funding for research in Luxembourg?

13. 13 Priority analysis

14. 14 Trends at the international level : 54 emerging domains ■Identified from:  Foresight projects conducted by the European Commission  Research priorities identified from 13 comparator countries  FNR 2005 call for programme proposals  Interviews and questionnaires 6 2 3 2 0 8 3 2 2 1 3 7 3 7 5 High competition Medium competition Low competition Competition level

15. 15 Online questionnaire 5 thematic fields: ■Environmental sciences ■Bio-medical sciences ■Information communication technologies ■Physical sciences and engineering ■Social sciences and humanities 15 research areas 54 research domains 3-13 research axes per domain A list of research domains was assembled based on: ■Thematic priorities from the international trends analysis of 13 comparator countries ■Foresight projects conducted by the European Commission ■FNR 2005 call for proposals ■The ongoing foresight process (interviews, workshop)

16. 16 Level of Granularity Thematic fieldResearch area Research domain Research axis Environmental sciences Global change and ecosystem Water management Drinking water Bio-medical sciences DiseasesCardiovascular diseases Metabolism and the Cv system ICTInfrastructureTelecoms Physical sciences and engineering Knowledge based multifunctional materials Housing and civil engineering Energy efficient buildings Social & human sciences Economy, policies, institutional framework Economy and finance Dynamics of financial wealth creation

17. 17 Online Questionnaire ■Questionnaire open to a full range of stakeholders Respondants : 283 questionnaires validated (800 people contacted)% CRPs, CEPS, University of Luxembourg, CHL46 Universities abroad, Institutions abroad22 Private sector14 Other public inst.: Museums, Hospitals, Associations, Small institutes, Central bank11 Ministries, Agencies, Chamber of commerce etc7 Male respondants78 Female respondants22 283 questionnaires usable

18. 18 How is a domain assessed? ■Attractiveness :  Societal need  Economic need  Emerging trend  Sustainable development need ■Feasibility:  Scientific base  Economic base  Regional partners ■Competition intensity:  Extent to which the research domain is being prioritised by other countries.  Note, this particular point requires careful consideration, as it is complicated by the fact that for Luxembourg to reap benefit of prioritising a research domain its scientists will also need to be part of a wider community of scientists where knowledge exchange is important.

19. 19 4 common domains amongst top domains selected by public & private sector Private sector respondents only Materials and novel properties 1st Water management 2nd Nanosciences and nanotechnologies 3rd Engineering 3rd Natural environment management 4th Sustainable production and products 5th Sustainable transports and logistics 6th Earth Observation 7th Language diversity and linguistic competences 7th Social integration and social exclusion 8th Telecommunications 8th Culture, history, identity 8th Demography, childhood, youth and intergenerational relations 8th Public sector respondents only Water management 1st Natural environment management 2nd School, work, qualifications 3rd Biotechnologies 4th Bio Energies 5th Infectious diseases and immunity 5th 21st century challenges and life- style related diseases 5th Earth Observation 6th Nanosciences and nanotechnologies 7th Biodiversity, conservation and GMOs 7th Health and Environment 7th Photovoltaic solar energy 7th Source: online questionnaire results Note: coloured circles refer to competition level from other countries – e.g. red = high, amber = medium, and green = low

20. 20 Attractiveness – Feasibility Matrix : ‘Clustering’ MEDIUMHIGHVERY HIGH MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH Attractiveness feasibility

21. 21 4 Types of Domains Type 1 Very high attractiveness and high feasibility (3) High attractiveness and high feasibility / Very high attractiveness and medium feasibility (30) High attractiveness and medium feasibility / medium attractiveness and high feasibility (20) Medium attractiveness and medium feasibility (1) Type 2 Type 3 Type 4

22. 22 Exploratory workshop ■Aim:  Discuss and validate prioritisation results from Questionnaire  Analyse strategic context for prioritisation Strategic Options: Build critical mass to develop the business base Scientific excellence strategy Differentiation strategy (niches) Sustain diversity in Luxembourg Research for sustainability

23. 23 Strategic support for public research ■Strategic Options:  Build critical mass to develop user driven research activities  Scientific excellence strategy  Differentiation strategy (niches)  Sustain diversity in Luxembourg ■Recommended strategy:  Commitment to Lisbon strategy and Barcelona targets and objectives Sustainable economic growth Social cohesion Respect for the environment  strategy specific for each Domain specific varying from: Very close alignment of research (projects) with private sector Building a strong research/science base for developing economic opportunities and social issues

24. 24 Definition of Level Field A Domain Axis Domain Axis Field B Domain Axis Domain Axis Field C Domain Axis Domain Axis Field X Domain Axis Domain Axis 1 3 4 level area 2

25. 25 Phase 1 Preliminary Prioritisation Field A Domain Axis Domain Axis Field B Domain Axis Domain Axis Field C Domain Axis Domain Axis Field X Domain Axis Domain Axis 1 3 4 level area 2

26. 26 Roadmap for ICT ■Domain priorities and check coherence with domain profile  Priority 1 : “Security and trust”, “e-services”  Priority 2: “Telecommunications”, “Multimedia”,  Priority 3: “Business and IT”, “Interactive computing technologies”, “Adaptivity”, “Modelling and simulation technologies” ■ICT strategy is mostly option 1 (user oriented)  Because of proximity to application areas and involvement of users in their development ■Rationale  Immediate benefits to SMEs in this sector  National action plan e-Luxembourg  ESA membership and related opportunities  Common ground for research and economic activities  Existing resource base both economic and research  FP7 priority ■Implementation issues for phase 2  Close collaboration with the industry/private sector (Coordination with Luxinnovation)  Close collaboration with ministry of economy, ministry “classes moyennes” (in view of e-services)  Stimulate closer collaboration ICT activities at CRPs and the University.  Could be developed quite rapidly into FNR programme (beginning 2007)

27. 27 Roadmap for Physical Sciences and Engineering ■Domain priorities and check coherence with domain profile  Priority 1 : “Nanosciences and nanotechs”, “Materials with novel properties”, “Supramolecular functional materials”  Priority 2: “Engineering”, “Business opportunities from space”, “Industrial design technology (Modelling and simulation; numerical methods, integration of them in the design process)”  Some domains from priority 1 are in line with strategic option 2. ■Materials strategy is balanced between option 1 and 2  Proximity to application areas and involvement of users in their development ■Rationale  Support local industry in the short term for option 1 domains or prepare future applications by building scientific excellence in specific research axis  Collaboration between public and private sector already existing  Existing clusters ■Implementation issues for phase 2  Finding research axis in “Nanosciences and nanotechs” and “Supramolecular functional materials” domains where to build scientific excellence with longer term application potential and identify international potential partners  For “Materials with novel properties” develop projects in collaboration with industry  Coordinate with the Ministry of Economy and Luxinnovation

28. 28 Roadmap for Life Sciences ■Domain priorities and check coherence with domain profile  Priority 1 : “21st century challenges and life-style diseases”  Priority 2: “Cardio-Vascular disease”, “Oncology”, “Infectious diseases and immunity”, “Biochemistry and cell biology”, “Food and human nutrition”, “Agriculture” ■Life Science strategy is a option 3 (a differentiation strategy)  Most competitive thematic area  Luxembourg has already some comparative advantages (cancer tissue bank, epidemiology resource base, population structure and diversity …) ■Rationale (for identifying comparative advantages)  M. of Economy wants to create favourable environment for biotech companies  Address societal/health issues  Build on existing strengths and partnership of CRPs with other actors (e.g. CHL)  High spill over potential in multi-disciplinary domains ■Implementation issues for phase 2  Identify existing comparative advantages underlying above domains Luxembourg’s particular scientific strengths Domains with relatively low competition Highly attractive and feasible domains Existing economic base Existing and potential regional/and international partnerships, Domains identified in national policy statements Identifying additional actors to maximise spill over potential Cross-cutting and multidisciplinary domains  Dialogue with the Ministry of Economy in view of their biotech strategy

29. 29 Roadmap for Environmental Sciences ■Domain priorities and check coherence with domain profile  4 domains are identified as a second tier priority. ■Environmental sciences strategy is mostly option 1 (not only business but also users)  Fulfilment of legislative requirements (EU, Kyoto)  Meeting societal demands  Build on ties of public research and users to be attractive for companies Rationale for these priorities in Environment  Existing scientific base clusters in most of these domains  Environmental issues specific for Lux.  Increasing legal obligations ■Implementation issues for phase 2  How many domains should be effectively supported  Coordination with the Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Agriculture, Viticulture and Rural Development  Suitable collaboration with users (Agricultural/enviro. meetings)  Identify partners and networking / collaborating in the Great Region 1.Water management 2.Natural environment management 3.Bioenergies 4.Climatology, Natural Environment and Catastrophes Forecasting 5.Ecotechnologies 6.Earth Observation 7.Biodiversity and Conservation

30. 30 Roadmap for Economy, law and finance ■New Field issuing from EWS discussion. Apparent need to treat separately from Social Sciences ■Areas identified during EWS:  Improving Business Environment  Regulation, Governance and European Integration ■“Economy, law and finance” strategy relies mostly on option 1 and 3  Business orientated and support for Luxembourg specific applications/niches ■Rationale  Business environment strengthening contributes to economic competitiveness  Strong demand from PMEs/Firms for Managerial sciences (lack of researchers)  Financial place Luxembourg and Luxembourg School of Finance  European Court of Justice and related law services  Developing scientific base at the UL  Innovation in financial services  Analysis of legislative framework ■Implementation issues for phase 2  Map existing competences  Coordination with the Ministry of economy, Ministry des classes moyennes, BCL, ABBL, BEI, Court of Justice, LSF…  Coordination with private sector (banks, insurances, etc)  Competence building  Rapid implementation into concrete funding mechanisms

31. 31 Roadmap for Social sciences and humanities ■Two large areas have been identified plus one interdisciplinary domain:  School, work, qualifications, welfare  Culture, Language Diversity, History, Identity  One interdisciplinary domain (with Health and medical sciences): Ageing ■Social sciences and humanities” strategy relies mostly on option 1 (societal need) and option 2  Social/cultural issues have to be taken up by research to guide policy/knowledge society  Scientific excellence: improve methods for social sciences in Luxembourg; FNR should work as standard implementing body ■Rationale for these priorities  Labour market problems: unemployment rising; transborder workers import  Ageing: demographic challenge and planning ahead; existing base in current programmes  Cultural issues: important in the multi-cultural context in view of social cohesion  Multilingualism is a niche for Luxembourg; potential for multi-disciplinarity with ICT  Developing scientific base at the UL and CEPS  Setting standards for data and methodology ■Implementation issues for phase 2  Coordination with Ministry of Culture, Education, Labour, Social Security, Family, Health, Economy (statistics) and other relevant actors and users  Ageing: continue Forum activities  Work/labour markets/social security: greater region relevant  Competence building

32. 32 Overall Results ■Stakeholder identification and initial involvement ■Networking within research community ■Networking within agencies ■Roadmap for Foresight in several domains ■Good basis for 2 nd phase

33. 33 Key issues for prioritisation ■Research competency is broadly spread across many domains – making prioritisation difficult ■Concentration of public R&D investments on “core areas” in view of constituting centres of S/T excellence ■Prioritisation should address a relevant proportion of research funding in Luxembourg

34. 34 Evaluation of Phase 1 Michael Keenan

35. 35 FNR Foresight www.fnr.lu Phase 2 and beyond

36. 36 Timescale ■Proposal of set of national priorities to the Government in march 2007 ■Assess suitability of public funding instruments:  FNR programmes  Centre of competence  Performance contracts  Greater Region funding scheme, etc. ■Implementation of Foresight results through public funding instruments by 2008 ■Continue Foresight culture

37. 37 FNR Foresight outline Phase 2 Stakeholder Workshop Phase 1 Results Priorities/ Recommendations to the Ministries FNR programmes Desk Research Challenges for Luxembourg Expert Panel Workshop 1 Expert Panel Workshops 1 Expert Panel Workshop 1 Expert Panel Workshops 2 Interim Reports Input Papers Final Report Environmental sciences Bio-medical sciences Information communication technologies Physical sciences and engineering Social sciences and humanities Law, Economy and Finance

38. 38 Phase 1 Preliminary Prioritisation Field A Domain Axis Domain Axis Field B Domain Axis Domain Axis Field C Domain Axis Domain Axis Field X Domain Axis Domain Axis 1 3 4 level area 2

39. 39 Phase 2 Prioritisation Field A Domain Axis Domain Axis Field B Domain Axis Domain Axis Field C Domain Axis Domain Axis Field X Domain Axis Domain Axis 1 3 4 level area 2 Overall assessment

40. 40 Phase 2 Prioritisation Field A Domain Axis Domain Axis Field B Domain Axis Domain Axis Field C Domain Axis Domain Axis Field X Domain Axis Domain Axis 1 3 4 level area 2 Higher level Prioritisation: Political choice based on assessment Translate priorities into funding mechanisms 21 3

41. 41 Luxembourg Foresight Phase 2 Anette Braun, Karlheinz Steimueller

42. 42 Thank You