1. Regional Approaches to Risk Management Roger N. Jones Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and Workshop 16 August 2005

2. Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate

3. Linking climate to adaptation over time Climate system Impacted activity Socio- economic system Current climate Future climate Future adaptations Current adaptations

4. Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope Assess current climate risks –Climate variability –How have people learnt to cope? Assess future climate risks –Changing climate hazards –Response between climate change and socio- economic change –Estimating exposure to risks within relevant planning horizons –Building on historical capacity and developing new capacities

5. Scoping phase If not already established, work with stakeholders to develop conceptual model of system What is the relationship between the hazard, the impact and vulnerability? Is there a point (linked to climate) where the the system ceases to operate in the way you would like? – critical threshold

6. Selecting a method

7. Characterisation of hazards Sector Climate Hazards Water Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought Agriculture Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes, Storms, hail, humidity Health Hot/wet conditions, temperature extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages Coasts Storm surges,wind/wave climates, pressure extremes, tidal extremes Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms

8. What’s my baseline – water resources Climate records Streamflow records Storage records Operational records

9. Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall 1890–1990

10. Future climate - no adaptation

11. Future climate with adaptation Policy Horizon

12. Planning horizons

13. Average uncertainty

14. P and Ep change over Australia (per degree global warming)

15. P and Ep changes for north-western Australia Change per degree global warming

16. P and Ep changes for south-western Australia Change per degree global warming

17. Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient

18. Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030 – preliminary results

19. Supply change  Demand change  Critical threshold System vulnerability (supply & demand) Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire) Level of utilisation Demand projections Current management Marginal planned change Substantial change

20. Adapting (generic) Improve technology access Institutional reform Improved equity Access to information Build social capital Access to wealth creation Adapting (specific) Mainstreaming adaptation Natural resource management New technology Disaster planning Retrofit existing structures Build resilience/resistance Autonomous adaptation Assess risk Manage risk No adaptation Autonomous adaptation Critical risk Coping range → Adaptive capacity Mitigation Adaptation Mitigative capacity ← Danger Adapting (transformative) Replace activity Abandon activity Transform activity

21. Natural hazard-driven approach What risks may we face under this projected scenario(s)? Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate hazard(s) ± other drivers of change An understanding of current/future climate- related risks Exploratory scenarios of climate with other biophysical and socio-economic conditions –Probabilities of hazard constrained –Main drivers known –Chain of consequences understood –P(Hazard) × Consequences –Largely exploratory Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria:

22. Vulnerability-driven approach What is the risk of a specific place, process, group or activity being harmed? Determine the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful processes Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes; can use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure through inverse methods –Probabilities of hazard not constrained –Many drivers resulting in vulnerability –Multiple pathways and feedbacks –P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold exceedance) –Largely normative Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria:

23. Resilience-driven approach What advantages can we gain by better understanding of our current/future capacities? Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from setbacks and manage change. Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and socio-political institutions, barriers to adaptation, increased benefits Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from history, other locations other activities –Impacts and/or vulnerability understood –Evidence of successful adaptation –Benefits thought to be likely –Barriers to adaptation recognised –Risks that require treatment Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria:

24. Policy-driven approach How will our current plans for the future be affected by climate change? Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed policy under climate change Fitter policy under climate change Unmanaged climate change impacts and vulnerability –Policy aims are sensitive to climate change –Desire to “mainstream” adaptation Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: