1. CLIMATIC HAZARDS Climatic disasters are recurrent threats to sustainable livelihoods in Orissa. Rather than mean temperature or seasonal rainfall these hazards are the main threats to lives, as well as economic constraints to development. Droughts, floods or cyclones are almost annual occurrences in Orissa (left). SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS Present livelihoods, particularly those most exposed to climatic hazards, can mobilise natural, financial, physical, social and human resources (the five capitals of a sustainable livelihoods approach). Indicators for livelihoods in Orrisa show their relative insecurity for food availability, access and nutrition. The scale is from the minimum to the maximum scores for the 16 states in the MSSF database. How vulnerable are livelihoods to present and future climatic risks? What are effective coping strategies to ensure human security? PATHWAYS OF SUSTAINABILITY Vulnerable livelihoods are ever changing. Economic growth, sound resource management and good governance have led to reduced vulnerability and more sustainable livelihoods. However, in many places poverty persists and livelihoods are at-risk. Over the next few decades, the impact of climate change will become apparent, not least in increased extreme events. Pathways of future sustainability should draw upon scenarios of development—encompassing ecological integrity, economic security and social equity, as in the Global Scenarios Group Great Transitions (right). How likely are we to achieve the Millennium development targets? What scenarios of the future frame risks to current livelihoods? ADAPTIVE CAPACITY While the local forecasts, for livelihoods and climate, are highly uncertain, sufficient understanding of the risks warrants investment in climate adaptation. Priorities include: Reducing vulnerability to present climatic risks Promoting sustainable livelihoods Building capacity to adapt in the future At a policy level, sustainable development and climate policy need to be linked in ways that are mutually beneficial. Which immediate measures build long-term adaptive capacity? Which integrated approaches to disasters, mitigation and impacts support sustainable livelihoods? REGIONAL VULNERABILITY Indicators of vulnerability are common in sectoral planning—whether for food security, water poverty, health, desertification, human development, or ecosystems. Such ‘vulnerability maps’ are the basis for assessing present exposure to climatic risks and sustainable livelihoods. The MS Swaminathan Research Foundation’s Food Insecurity Atlas of Rural India (2001) indicates that Bihar has the highest vulnerability, on all three dimensions—of food availability, access and nutrition. Poverty and poor nutritional status mark the northern tier of vulnerable states. CLIMATE CHANGE Global, regional and local climate change will affect livelihoods in India. A global range of changes in temperature and precipitation has been calculated through the IPCC using global climate models. Regional scenarios for India are being developed by various institutions. A shortcoming of our understanding of climate change is reliable forecasts of seasonal and interannual variability and for climatic hazards, such as drought, floods and cyclones. Which ‘not implausible’ scenarios threaten livelihoods? Can seasonal and interannual forecasts promote sustainable development? Food insecurity map Ravi Sharma U. N. Environment Programme United Nations Avenue, Gigiri PO Box 30552 Nairobi, Kenya Ravi.sharma@unep.org Dr Mruthyunjaya National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP) Library Avenue Pusa, P.B. No. 11305 New Delhi 110012, India bcroy_ncap@iasri.delhi.nic.in Anand Patwardhan Indian Institute of Technology Powai, Mumbai 400-076, India anand@iitb.ac.in Richard Klein Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research 14473 Potsdam 14412 Potsdam, Germany richard.klein@pik-potsdam.de Richard Washington School of Geography & Environment University of Oxford Mansfield Road Oxford OX1 3TB Thomas E. Downing Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office 10b Littlegate Street Oxford OX1 1QT, U.K. Tom.downing@sei.se Climatic disasters in Orissa CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE LIVELIHOODS The demands for information on climate adaptation requires new approaches that… link climate and present resource management, and promote sustainable livelihoods Beginning with present vulnerability is essential to understand the socio-economic impacts of climate variations and change. Adaptation to future climate change must reduce present climatic risks. The approach shown here begins with vulnerability assessment, livelihoods and coping with climatic risks. Pathways of future development and outlooks for global and local climate change provide the context for linking present risk coping strategies with adaptation to climate change. The approach is being demonstrated in Orissa, India. Severe Moderate ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY SOCIAL EQUITY ECONOMIC SECURITY DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY CAPACITY EDUCATION EVALUATION Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism Climate change in Asia from IPCC TAR Livelihood Capitals Human Natural Financial Physical Social