1. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program (AvSAFE) Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Research Celeste M. Belcastro, Ph.D. Principal Investigator for IVHM NASA Aviation Safety Program Phone: 757-864-6182 e-mail: celeste.m.belcastro@nasa.gov

2. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Outline Research Motivation IVHM Long-Term Mission and Goals IVHM Technical Plan –5-Year Objectives –Technical Areas –Integrated Technology Development IVHM Project Summary

3. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Potential Problems to be Addressed: Full Understanding of Degradation/Failure/Damage/Effects Physics for Aircraft Propulsion, Flight Systems, and Structure Currently Does Not Exist Integrated Validated Technologies for Prevention, Detection, Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Mitigation of In-Flight System and Component Malfunctions, Failures, and Damage in Legacy and Future Aircraft are needed Full Understanding of Hazard Physics, System Effects, and Mitigation Methods for Engine and Airframe Icing, Lightning and EMI, and Ionizing Radiation Does Not Exist Need Enabling Technologies to Support the Transition to More Effective Condition-Based Maintenance Inability to Perform V&V of IVHM Technologies in Flight with Multiple Failures IVHM Research Motivation - National Interests & Goals (1) National Need: Reduce Aircraft System and Component Failures that Cause and Contribute to Accidents & Incidents in Legacy and Future Aircraft –System and Component Failures is a Significant Causal and Contributing Factor in Aircraft Accidents across all Vehicle Classes Significant Causes are Improper Maintenance, Fatigue/Failure, and Unknown –System and Component Malfunctions and Failures is the Largest Contributor to Transport Aircraft Incidents Reduce Environmental Hazards that Cause and Contribute to Accidents & Incidents in Legacy and Future Aircraft –Icing in Engines and on Airframe –Detonation Properties and Inerting of Future Fuels Identify and Address Emerging Threats to Aircraft Safety –Lightning and Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) –Single Event Effects from Ionizing Radiation Improve Aircraft Safety System & Component Failures Icing Fuel Worldwide Jet Airplane Accidents from 1959 through 2004 (Boeing Data) 2258 Fatalities Fire 2524 3631 System & Component Failures and Onboard Hazards Contribute to 24% of Aircraft Accident Fatalities

4. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Research Motivation - National Interests & Goals (2) Meeting the Needs of Legacy and Future Fleet Aircraft Net-Enabled Information Access Performance-Based Services Weather-Assimilated Decision Making Layered, Adaptive Security Broad-Area Precision Navigation Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations “Equivalent Visual” Operations “Super Density” Operations National Need: Avionics with High Levels of Autonomy are Required for Future Aircraft –Sensing, Control, Communications, Navigation –Prognostic Health Management and Self-Healing Systems –Support New Concepts in Air Traffic Management –Support Enhanced Flight Deck Technologies –Support Extended Operational Envelopes 4-D Flight Path Prediction and Tracking Aircraft Self-Separation Simultaneous Precision Approaches on Multiple Runways Routine Operations in Adverse Weather Conditions –Wake Vortex Location and Strength Prediction and Sensing –Robustness of Flight Control to Turbulence and Wind Shear –Robustness of Avionics to Lightning Strikes Aircraft Technologies to Support Safe Implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System Potential Problems to be Addressed: High-Integrity Autonomous Flight Systems are Required –New Levels of Safety and Reliability –New Levels of Functional Redundancy and Robustness Prognostic Health Management & Self-Healing System Technologies are Needed Understanding of Lightning Effects on Critical Systems and Structures for Routine All-Weather Operations is Needed –Comprehensive Damage Modeling & Simulation Methods –Damage Effects Assessment Methods Inability to Perform Full In-Flight Validation Prior to NGATS Implementation

5. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Long-Term Mission and Goals Goals: Reduce system and component failures as causal and contributing factors in aircraft accidents and incidents Provide continuous on-board situational awareness of vehicle health state for use by the flight crew, ground crew, and maintenance depot Mission: Develop technologies to determine system/component degradation and damage early enough to prevent or gracefully recover from in-flight failures in the NGATS environment

6. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Project Objectives: First 5-Years Objectives: Develop tools and techniques to: – Determine the health state of subsystems (airframe, propulsion, electrical power, avionics including flight control system, complex electromechanical systems) such that the health state of the entire vehicle can be determined for accurate prognosis – Diagnose coupled degradation/malfunction/failure/hazard conditions and predict their effects on vehicle safety – Mitigate damage/degradation/failures in-flight Develop a public database and testing capabilities for IVHM technologies

7. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Technical Approach Approach: Develop and employ virtual and real sensors to assess subsystem states Couple state awareness data with physics-based and data-driven models to diagnose degradation and damage caused by environmental hazards and electro/thermo/mechanical failures Integrate sub-system information to provide diagnostics and prognostics for the entire vehicle, including using data from one subsystem to provide information for another Develop locally-controlled mitigation techniques to extend safe operation time

8. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Future Concept of Operations Provide continuous on-board situational awareness of vehicle health state for use by the flight crew, ground crew, and maintenance depot Reduce system and component failures as causal and contributing factors in aircraft accidents and incidents

9. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Research Areas Integrated Continuous Onboard Vehicle Health State Assessment and Management Onboard Environmental Hazard Detection and Effects Mitigation IVHM System Technologies Airframe Propulsion Aircraft Systems Icing Architectures and Databases Verification and Validation Integration & Assessment Lightning and EMI/EMC Ionizing Radiation

10. Integrated IVHM Technology Development Propulsion Analysis, Diagnostics, Prognostics, & Mitigation Static and dynamic response of engines with failures in flight conditions and maneuvers Available thrust & performance margin determination for various levels of fatigue and component failures High-Temperature Sensors Feature extraction & Anomaly detection Diagnostic/prognostic reasoning Failure mitigation Structural Analysis, Diagnostics, Prognostics, & Mitigation Static and dynamic response of fatigued and damaged structure to flight conditions and maneuvers Residual strength determination for various levels and location of fatigue and damage Sensors and Sensory materials Feature extraction & Anomaly detection Efficient computational algorithms Diagnostic reasoning Predictor/Corrector Prognostics with sensor data updates Load margin determination Failure mitigation methods Failure Testing & Modeling Aircraft Systems & Components Structural Components Engine and Components On-Board Vehicle-Wide Health State Reasoning & Performance Assessment Integrated Diagnostics and Prognostics as a Function of Flight Conditions, Hazards, and Maneuvers Diagnostics, Prognostics, and Mitigation of Correlated Unanticipated Failures and Malfunctions On-Line Assessment of IVHM Performance and Confidence Metrics − Detection Probability − False Alarm Probability Development of Control Limits/Constraints to Prevent Further Component Fatigue and Failure Accident & Incident Database & Emerging Safety Concerns System and Component Malfunctions and Failures Environmental Hazards Environmental Hazard Testing & Modeling Icing EMI/EMC Ionizing Radiation High-fidelity failure data Experimental test data Refinements to test plans Risks Hazards Scenarios Aircraft System Analysis, Diagnostics, Prognostics, & Mitigation Analysis of underlying malfunction and failure characteristics and effects in flight conditions and maneuvers Achievable performance determination Feature extraction Anomaly detection Function monitoring Diagnostic and prognostic reasoning Malfunction & failure mitigation Risks Hazards Scenarios Integrated Flight Simulations System and Component Malfunctions and Failures Environmental Hazards High-fidelity hazard data Experimental test data Environmental Hazard Analysis, Diagnostics, Prognostics, & Mitigation Analysis of underlying hazard characteristics and effects Specialized Sensors Feature extraction & Anomaly detection Diagnostic and prognostic reasoning Hazard Mitigation Closed- Loop Tests Refinements to test plans Integrated Failure and Hazard Testing IRAC Failure Mitigation Using Flight Control Failure Mitigation Using Engine Control Active Airframe Structure Control IVHM Architecture IVHM Databases

11. Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research Aviation Safety Program IVHM Research IVHM Project Summary NASA IVHM Research Challenges –Development of Computationally Efficient Failure/Degradation Physics Models for Inclusion in Diagnostics and Prognostics Improved Accuracy and Confidence in Health State Assessment –Inclusion of Hazard Effects into Diagnostics and Prognostics Improved Accuracy and Robustness in Adverse Operating Conditions –Integrated Multi-Disciplinary Diagnostics and Prognostics Improved Accuracy and Performance for Coupled Failure Mechanisms –Architecture and Algorithms for Near-Continuous Onboard Health State Assessment Reduction of In-Flight Malfunctions and Failures –Locally Controlled Failure and Hazard Mitigation Reduced Effects of Onboard Malfunctions and Failures –IVHM Technology Database Models, Data Sets, Algorithms, etc. Integration of IVHM and IRAC, IIFD, AAD, and Other ARMD Technologies –Integrated Flight/Engine/Airframe Control for Extended Life and Degradation/Failure Accommodation –Enhanced Crew Situational Awareness of Aircraft Health State –Adaptive Diagnostics and Prognostics that include Degradation Physics and Maintenance Scheduling –IVHM Technologies for Advanced Subsonic, Supersonic, and Hypersonic Configurations –Integration of Vehicle Health State Information into Operations in the NAS Broad Range of Industry Participation Anticipated –RFI Released in January 2006 Resulted in Many Responses –Anticipate Partnerships through Space Act Agreements –Would Like to Facilitate Development of Consortia for Collaborations