1. Dairy Outlook 2013 Marin Bozic Midwest Dairy Expo St Cloud, MN November 27, 2012

2. Dairy Food Marketing Economics Funded by dairy check-off Located at the University of Minnesota, but covering 10-state area Research: Risk Management Price Analysis Consumer Insights Dairy Technology Assessment

3. MMPA – supporting policy & education work

4. All-milk price: 2011-2012

5. Milk Production: 2012 vs. 2011 Source: Daily Dairy Report

6. Year-to-Year Changes in U.S. Milk Production

7. Year-to-Year Changes in Milk Per Cow

8. Weather Outlook (Feb-Mar-Apr 2013) Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

9. Weather Outlook May-Jun-Jul 2013

12. Difference in U.S. vs. International Cheese Prices

15. Corn: Small stocks = explosive price dynamics

18. Is Inflation a Problem?

19. Growth vs. Deleveraging

20. The Kiwi Cycle (Change in Per Cow Milk Yield)

21. Source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi5.gif

23. Income over Feed Costs Margin: 2004-2012

25. Home-feed profile: Insuring 8-10 th month

26. Policy outlook for 2013 1)ObamaCare 2)2012/3 Farm Bill -MILC, DPPSP gone -Margin insurance, market stabilization likely 3) Immigration reform

27. The Bottom Line 1)High feed costs will keep milk production in check. Exports may falter, providing additional domestic supply. 2)Some chance drought may stay with us. 3)High volatility is the new normal, for several years at least. 4)Big policy changes coming up.

28. Chuck Norris doesn’t need to forecast… he knows prices! Ignorance abhors uncertainty. Beware of overconfident brokers, forecasters or policy insiders!

29. Dairy Outlook 2013 presented at the Midwest Dairy Expo 2012 Dr. Marin Bozic mbozic@umn.edu Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 317c Ruttan Hall 1994 Buford Avenue St Paul, MN 55108 You may download this presentation at http://marinbozic.info/