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Presentation on theme: "Disclaimer This presentation is being made only to and is directed at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Disclaimer This presentation is being made only to and is directed at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (the "Order") or (b) any other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(1)of the Order (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its comments. The financial information set out in this document does not constitute the Company's statutory accounts. Statutory accounts for 2003, which received an auditors' report that was unqualified and did not contain any statement concerning accounting records or failure to obtain necessary information and explanations, have been filed with the Registrar of Companies.

3 George Wimpey Plc Interim Results for the half year ended 30 June 2004 Wednesday 28 July 2004

4 Welcome John Robinson Chairman

5 Agenda  Introduction Peter Johnson  H1 Financial ReviewAndrew Carr-Locke  UK Business ReviewPete Redfern  US Business ReviewPeter Johnson  Strategy and OutlookPeter Johnson 5

6 Introduction Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

7 Highlights  Group H1 PBT up 29% to £158.5m  Margins increased across all three businesses  from 16.5% to 17.1% in George Wimpey  from 10.6% to 12.0% in Laing Homes  from 11.1% to 12.4% in Morrison Homes  Volumes increased in all businesses  Landbank strengthened in UK and US  land purchase disciplines on margins maintained  Interim dividend up 37% to 5.2p  Full year outlook around the top end of market expectations 7

8 Market conditions UK - H1 generally healthy, normal seasonal pattern emerging  Very strong Q1; H1 pattern similar to 2002  Recent steadying following normal summer pattern  rate rises will avoid repeat of abnormal 2003 H2  Continued undersupply, low unemployment and good affordability underpin the market US - H1 exceptionally strong, steadying to strong but sustainable  Economy continues to strengthen  Strong demographic trends and good affordability underpin market  Morrison positioned in particularly strong markets 8

9 H1 2004 financial review Andrew Carr-Locke Group Finance Director

10 H1 2004 Change £m First half results H1 2003 *Last 12 months** restated for UITF 38 Turnover Operating profit Interest charge Profit before tax Earnings per share Dividend per share ROACE* 1,220+15% 181.6+23% (23.1)- 158.5+29% 28.6p+27% 5.2p+37% 24.0% 1,059 148.0 (25.3) 122.7 22.5p 3.8p 24.1% NAV per share 328p+22%269p** 10

11 Turnover £m Operating profit 1 Operating margin 1 Change £m Change H1 2003 H1 2004 George Wimpey Laing Homes Morrison Homes 2 Other TOTAL 809 +17% 139 +22% 16.5%17.1% 143 +26% 17 +43% 10.6%12.0% 268 +5% 33 +18% 11.1%12.4% --(7)- 1,220 +15% 182 +23% Segmental analysis 1 After fair value items 2 Exchange rate in 2004 $/£=1.81, 2003 $/£=1.61 11

12 First half completions Completions NoChange£ / $Change Ave selling price GW private GW affordable Laing private Laing affordable UK total US total GROUP TOTAL 4,220 +2% £183,600 +13% 340 +39% £81,100 +8% 423 +36% £308,100 -7% 110 N/A £100,800 -1% 5,093 +9% 1,714 +13% $277,700 +5% 6,807 +10% 12

13 Yr to Jun 2003 Yr to Jun 2004 £m Cash flow summary 12 months to June Operating profit Land spend Land realisations Other working capital Tax Interest paid FREE CASH FLOW 366463 (848)(834) 634689 (63)5 (97)(120) (33)(47) (41)156 Acquisitions(349)(95) Dividends(25)(26) Cash inflow / (outflow) before financing(415)35 13 restated for UITF 38

14 Balance sheet - net assets June 2003* June 2004 Fixed assets Land Land creditors Other current assets Tax and provisions Deferred consideration TOTAL NET ASSETS 2729 1,6421,771 (168)(156) 494456 (66)(68) (92)- 1,8372,032 £m * restated for UITF 38 14

15 June 2003* June 2004 Shareholders’ funds £m Net debt £m Capital employed £m 1,0251,278 812754 1,8372,032 Gearing Interest cover last 12 months 79%59% 8.5x9.4x Balance sheet - financing * restated for UITF 38 15

16 Land owned and controlled Total land value £m1,6041,489167153 Owned plots34,19133,81917,45612,574 Controlled plots16,71012,8692,6062,751 Short term plots50,90146,68820,06215,325 Short term landbank in years 3.93.35.54.8 June 2004 June 2003 June 2004 June 2003 UKUS 16

17 Financial summary  Operating margins increased in all businesses  Positive free cashflow of £156m in 12 months to June 2004  Balance sheet strengthened  gearing down from 79% to 59% and interest cover increased  no deferred consideration  Landbank strengthened  now over 50,000 plots in UK  4,700 plot y-o-y increase in US  land buying margin disciplines remain in place  ROACE 24.0%  Interim dividend up 37% to 5.2p 17

18 UK business review Pete Redfern Managing Director, GWUK

19 Financial summary George Wimpey H1 2004H1 2003H1 2004H1 2003 Laing Homes Total completions Private completions Private ASP Turnover £m Operating profit £m Operating margin 4,5604,370533319 4,2204,125423310 £183,600£163,100£308,100£331,200 809.3691.1142.9113.6 138.7114.017.112.0 17.1%16.5%12.0%10.6% 19

20 20 Operating margin growth  Helped by strong market  GW strong selling price growth in North and Midlands  Laing H1 volume growth  3 years of improved land buying  Costs tightly under control  controlled material cost inflation and subcontractor costs ~ 4-5%  improving supplier relationships on service and cost - scale benefits  Excellent production capability  benefits from 2003/4 product rationalisation  square footage per outlet up 12%

21 21 Geographical and product mix  Regional businesses North/Midlands/South in excellent balance  Focus on prime locations maintained - right place to be in any market  Average private selling price increased by 11% but depth of customer base maintained:  84% of volume remains under the £250k stamp duty threshold  mix of products changing to maintain affordability

22 Price points 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 £0k - £50k£51k - £100k£100k - £150k£150k-£200k£200k-£250k£250k-£300k£300k - £500kOver £500k Price band No completions George Wimpey Laing Homes 22

23 Flats 2 / 3 bed houses 4 / 5 bed houses H2 2003H1 2003 28%23% 31%33% 41%44% 29% 42% H1 2004 23 Product mix  Average product size maintained at ~1,070 sqft

24 Market update  2004 H1 has followed similar pattern to 2002  Q1 very strong – well ahead of 2003  Q2 slowing into normal summer seasonal pattern  Interest rate rises and BoE price warnings have had desired effect  Visitors and sales rates are in line with summer pattern: quality remains strong  Price growth has come from North and Midlands: prices in South flat since Q3 2002: current price growth modest  No increases in incentives: cancellation numbers similar to last year; part exchange <1% of sales  Market balanced by limited supply and interest rate rises; normal H2 expected compared to abnormally strong H2 in 2003 24

25 Weekly sales rates 1997 - 2004 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 19992002 25

26 Weekly sales rates 1997 - 2004 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 20022004 26

27 Weekly sales rates 1997 - 2004 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 200220032004 27

28 Weekly sales rates 1997 - 2004 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec 19971998199920002001200220032004 28

29 George Wimpey ASP on reservations 0 50 100 150 200 250 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun £000s North DivisionMidland DivisionSouth Division 20032004 29

30 Landbank  Total land bank at 50,901 (2003 H1 46,688) plots, of which 21,000 plots owned with detailed planning  Greater length of pipeline land required due to longer planning process  Long term land beginning to contribute - long term land bank includes 13,000 plots allocated in local plans.  Land bank is of a good quality, for example for George Wimpey private plots: ASP £000s Cost per plot £000s H1 2004Landbank Land value % ASP 184185 44 24% 30

31 Land purchase margins 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 FY 2000FY 2001FY 2002FY 2003H1 2004 PBIT % 31 %

32 Customer service  ‘Would you recommend’ breaks 85% target  8% improvement year-on-year in Customer Service Monitor scores  ‘Growing Wiser’ programme rolled out to all businesses GW and Laing  Again won more ‘Pride in the Job’ awards than any other housebuilder  GW options revenue up 11% per home 32

33 Customer service 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar Monthly CSM score 20032004 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar Current industry ave recommendation rate Barker target 2007 recommendation rate George Wimpey recommendation rate 20032004 33

34 34 Laing Homes integration  Restructuring now complete: new management team established  The business fully integrated into GWUK  one UK management team  one UK head office  Laing fully part of the GW specialist structure (eg procurement)  benchmarking across Laing and GW  Overhead costs on plan, £12m savings achieved within expected exceptional cost  Track record of award winning quality continued in 2004  Laing Homes well placed to deliver volume growth

35 Future expectations  Priority is to sustain margins  Volume growth can come from both Laing and George Wimpey  significant if changes arise from Barker  slower but still deliverable if not  However land buying will remain selective - having built margins up over three years both in results and stored in the land bank, we will not let them slip  In summary, in any market George Wimpey has several advantages  significantly improved land bank  highly professional sales offering - customer service, options and site presentation  highly efficient site production machine  opportunity to grow Laing - margins and volumes 35

36 US business review Peter Johnson

37 Financial summary Legal completions Revenue $m Ave selling price Operating profit $m Operating margin % H1 2003H1 2004Change 1,5211,714+13% 409484+18% $266,000$278,000+5% 45.360.1+33% 11.112.4+12% 37

38 US housing market  Economy continues to strengthen  healthy job growth; consumer confidence at 18 month high  Interest rates have started to increase  but mortgage rates still historically low  positive economic environment balancing out rate rise  demand has not been dampened  Another very strong year forecast for SF starts and sales  Exceptionally strong demand experienced by Morrison in H1 2004  visitor levels up 30%  sales rates up almost 50%  H2 likely to return to more sustainable levels 38

39 Operating margin FY 2003H1 2004H1 2003 11.9%12.4%11.1% Margins  H1 margins benefited from  selling price increases  improved land purchasing over past two years  But offset by  significant increases in material costs  increase in overheads to support longer term growth  Margins sustainable as growth continues through  improved overhead recovery  bigger land deals - getting invited to the party more regularly 39

40 Land  Landbank increased by over 30% y-o-y  2.7 plots added for every plot used so far in 2004  Excellent position for further growth Land spend $m (last 6 months) 120 Plots owned / under option 15,304 Plots controlled 1,663 Total landbank 16,967 12,574 2,751 15,325 83 Dec 03Jun 03 108 17,456 2,606 20,062 Jun 04 40

41 Excellent position for growth  Excellent forward sales position for 2004 >90% reserved/completed  significant increase in full year numbers expected  Strong land position for further significant volume growth in 2005  Successful new product development  smaller, more affordable product in Austin, Atlanta and Dallas  town houses successfully introduced in Florida  Underperforming businesses in Atlanta and Texas being addressed  Former satellites in Central Valley and Jacksonville performing well; new division to be formed in 2005 from Sarasota satellite  Well located in 5 of top 10 fastest growing Metropolitan areas in job growth and SF Permits 41

42 Strategy and outlook Peter Johnson

43 Strategy - background  The strategy set out three years ago has now largely been delivered  performance of UK business substantially improved  second brand established to support UK volume growth  benefits of scale established and reinforced  potential for significant growth in US has been created  margins have been improved across all businesses  Rapid pace of UK market has now slowed  house price inflation has slowed, but costs continue to grow  land market remains competitive as planning restricts supply  Outlook for US market remains very strong  underlying demographic growth and job growth  excellent Morrison positions in location, land, brand and management 43

44 Strategy – today’s priorities  Sustain GW margins through selective land acquisition  Continue to bring Laing margins up to GW levels  Sustain benefits arising from absolute and relative scale  Put structure in place to allow growth if land available on good terms In UK, prioritise margin over rapid volume growth  Maintain rapid growth rate of Morrison within existing markets  Resolve outstanding performance issues in Atlanta and Texas Deliver significant growth from potential in Morrison  Continue to reduce gearing levels  Sustain policy to increase dividends ahead of earnings growth Reduce gearing and increase dividend payout 44

45 Outlook UK  Market appears to have returned to normal and sustainable levels  >80% of full year target completions now reserved or completed at margins ahead of 2003  H2 orders expected to be below record H2 2003 levels  Full year volumes likely to be similar to 2003 US  Economy and market remain strong, though slowing from recent record pace to sustainable levels  >90% of full year target completions now reserved or completed at margins ahead of 2003  Land position in place to support rapid growth in H2 and beyond Based on current market conditions full year results are expected to be around the top end of market expectations 45

46 Forthcoming events  12 / 13 October 2004  dinner and site visit for analysts  22 December 2004  pre-close trading update  22 February 2005  2004 preliminary results announcement  6 September 2005  H1 2005 interim results 46

47 Appendix To interim results presentation for half year to 30 June 2004 Wednesday 28 July 2004

48 H1 2003H1 2004 Operating profit Interest charge 148.0181.6 (25.3)(23.1) Profit before tax Interest cover last 12 months 122.7158.5 8.5x9.4x £m Published results 48

49 FREE CASH FLOW H1 2003* H1 2004 Operating profit Land spend Land realisations Other working capital Tax Interest paid 148182 (482)(462) 254278 (156)(136) (54)(55) (19)(23) (309)(216) £m Cash flow summary 6 months to Jun 2004 * restated for UITF 38 Cash inflow / (outflow) before financing Acquisitions Dividends (120)- (15)(16) (444)(232) 49

50 GW affordable Reservations H1 2004 Ave sites Per outlet / per week H1 2003 H1 2004 H1 2003 H1 2004 H1 2003 Group reservations GW private Laing private Laing affordable UK TOTAL 6,0626,3712562800.910.88 57953038350.590.58 706263 12970 7,4767,234294315 US TOTAL GROUP TOTAL 2,9321,9381041031.080.73 10,4089,172398418 50 -- -- -- -- -- --

51 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Ave house size sqft 1,0671,0561,0511,053 Ave selling price £ / sqft 172.0154.5162.5159.5 George Wimpey - private completions analysis 51

52 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year George Wimpey - turnover analysis Private - volume ave price £000s 4,2204,1257,10311,228 183.6163.1170.8167.9 turnover £m7756731,2131,886 Affordable - volume ave price £000s 340245340585 81.175.274.574.8 turnover £m28182644 Other turnover mainly land sales 6-33 TOTAL £m8096911,2421,933 52

53 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year George Wimpey - margin analysis Gross margin % Gross profit £m 26.827.024.125.1 216.8186.8299.3486.1 Selling expenses £m(31.1)(29.8)(33.3)(63.1) Overhead costs £m OPERATING PROFIT £m (47.0)(43.0)(49.9)(92.9) 138.7114.0216.1330.1 Operating margin %17.116.517.417.1 Fair value items (FVI) £m1.82.01.23.2 OP MARGIN % before FVI 17.416.817.517.2 53

54 H1 2004 £m % to sales £m % to sales H1 2003 Gross profit Fair value items Overhead costs 216.826.8%186.827.0% 1.80.2%2.00.3% (78.1)(9.6%)(72.8)(10.5%) OPERATING PROFIT before fair value items 140.517.4%116.016.8% OPERATING PROFIT after fair value items 138.717.1%114.016.5% George Wimpey - margin reconciliation 54

55 H1 2004 H2 2003 H1 2003 full year George Wimpey - product mix Flats 2 / 3 bed houses 25 2124 30323433 4 / 5 bed houses45434543 100 % 55

56 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year 0 - 50 51 - 75 ---- 1423 76 - 100813911 101 - 125 126 - 150 121615 1921 151 - 17517 176 - 200 201 - 250 14101211 18111513 251 - 3006455 301+5444 100 % completions by price £000s George Wimpey - price mix 56

57 North Midlands South Total George Wimpey - geographic mix Legals H1 2004H1 2003 Legals Size sqft ASP £000 1,4591,1501691,5091,103140 1,5931,0331731,3181,034157 1,0551,0362121,2121,047199 4,2201,0671844,1251,056163 Size sqft ASP £000 Legals H2 2003 2,4391,124153 2,4491,016163 1,9751,038197 7,1031,051171 Size sqft ASP £000 City 11377626686701154240757203 57

58 Owned and controlled plots June 2004 June 2003 North Midlands South Total 15,63013,991 12,14712,851 16,07812,758 46,25342,562 Long term acres June 2004 June 2003 4,9084,990 5,4975,293 7,7208,561 18,12518,844 George Wimpey - land City2,3982,962-- 58

59 George Wimpey - short term land H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Start of period Net additions 30,50629,53630,60529,536 5,0725,4397,34412,783 Legal completions(4,560)(4,370)(7,443)(11,813) End of period CONTROLLED 31,01830,60530,506 15,23511,95713,081 TOTAL LANDBANK46,25342,56243,587 OWNED 59

60 Plots H1 2003*H1 2004 Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank Net additions Legal completions (156) End of period 29,53636.31,071 5,43941.4225 (4,370)(35.9) 30,60537.21,140 Cost per plot £k Value £m George Wimpey - owned land 30,50640.71,241 5,07242.6216 (4,560)(41.0) 31,01840.91,270 (187) *restated for consistency with 2004 figures 60

61 Ave house size sqft Ave selling price £ / sqft Laing Homes - private completions analysis H1 2003 full year 1,3171,232 251256 H2 2003 1,192 258 H1 2004 1,088 283 61

62 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Laing Homes - turnover analysis Private - volume ave price £000s 423310665975 308.1331.2307.7315.2 turnover £m130103204307 Affordable - volume ave price £000s 1109112121 100.8102.3109.7109.2 turnover £m1111213 Other turnover mainly land sales 210717 TOTAL £m143114223337 62

63 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Laing Homes - margin analysis Gross margin % Gross profit £m 23.123.622.522.9 33.026.950.277.1 Selling expenses £m(5.1)(4.5)(7.5)(12.0) Overhead costs £m OPERATING PROFIT £m (10.8)(10.4)(13.0)(23.4) 17.112.029.741.7 Operating margin %12.010.613.312.4 63

64 H1 2004 H2 2003 H1 2003 full year Laing Homes - product mix Flats 2 / 3 bed houses 65543849 13172319 4 / 5 bed houses22293932 100 Completions % 64

65 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year 100 - 150 151 - 200 5-96 21142723 201 - 25018281319 251 - 300 301 - 500 15161213 3428 501 - 1,0007141011 1,000 +--1- 100 % completions by price £000s Laing Homes - price mix 65

66 Laing Homes - land June 2004 Dec 2003 June 2003 Dec 2002 3,1733,0533,2142,690 1,4751,968912923 Owned Controlled TOTAL LANDBANK 4,6485,0214,1263,613 Plots 66

67 Ave house size sqft Ave selling price £ / sqft Morrison Homes - private completions analysis H1 2003 full year 2,4332,415 109.1111.8 H2 2003 2,402 113.7 H1 2004 2,409 115.3 67

68 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Morrison Homes - turnover analysis Private - volume ave price $000s 1,7141,5212,1403,661 278266273270 turnover $m476404585989 Other turnover8549 TOTAL $m484409589998 68

69 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Morrison Homes - margin analysis Gross margin % Gross profit $m 24.023.022.9 116.493.9135.0228.9 Selling expenses $m(26.7)(23.9)(32.2)(56.1) Overhead costs $m OPERATING PROFIT $m (29.6)(24.7)(29.5)(54.2) 60.145.373.3118.6 Operating margin %12.411.112.411.9 69

70 Morrison Homes - margin reconciliation H1 2003 $m % to sales $m % to sales H1 2004 Gross profit Selling expenses Overhead costs 93.923.0%116.424.0% (23.9)(5.9%)(26.7)(5.5%) (24.7)(6.0%)(29.6)(6.1%) OPERATING PROFIT45.311.1%60.112.4% 70

71 Morrison Homes - regional performance Turnover H1 2004 $m H1 2003 $m 157215 175210 7759 -- West Southeast Southwest Corporate Total 409484 H1 2004 $m H1 2003 $m 29.7 15.5 5.2 (5.1) Operating profit 45.3 Operating margin H1 2004 % H1 2003 % 18.9 8.9 6.8 - 11.1 40.0 24.9 1.4 (6.2) 60.1 18.6 11.9 2.4 - 12.4 70

72 H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year Morrison Homes - short term land Start of period Net additions 15,30411,79612,57411,796 3,8662,2994,8707,169 Legal completions (1,714)(1,521)(2,140)(3,661) End of period 17,45612,57415,304 2,6062,7511,663 TOTAL LAND BANK 20,06215,32516,967 LAND SPEND $m 10883120203 OWNED AND OPTIONS CONTROLLED 72

73 West Southeast H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year 6485217591,280 8166879971,684 Southwest 250313384697 Morrison Homes - legal completions TOTAL 1,7141,5212,1403,661 73

74 West Southeast H1 2004 H1 2003 H2 2003 full year 320297314307 260254256255 Southwest 228238 Morrison Homes - average selling price TOTAL 278266273270 $ 000s 74


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