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George Wimpey Plc 2004 Preliminary Results Tuesday 22 February 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "George Wimpey Plc 2004 Preliminary Results Tuesday 22 February 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 George Wimpey Plc 2004 Preliminary Results Tuesday 22 February 2005

2 Disclaimer This presentation is being made only to and is directed at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (the "Order") or (b) any other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(1)of the Order (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its comments. The financial information set out in this document does not constitute the Company's statutory accounts. Statutory accounts for 2003, which received an auditors' report that was unqualified and did not contain any statement concerning accounting records or failure to obtain necessary information and explanations, have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. 2

3 Welcome Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

4 Agenda  IntroductionPeter Johnson  2004 Financial ReviewAndrew Carr-Locke  UK Business ReviewPeter Redfern  US Business ReviewStu Cline  Strategy and OutlookPeter Johnson 4

5 Introduction Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

6 2004 headlines  Profits exceed expectations despite weak H2 in UK  UK operating margins up from  George Wimpey17.1% to 18.5%  Laing Homes 12.4% to 13.3%  Outstanding US performance  volumes up >20%  operating margin up from 11.9% to 14.6%  Full year dividend increased 31% to 16.0p 6

7 2004 Financial Review Andrew Carr-Locke Group Finance Director

8 2004 results £m Tax Profit before tax Interest Operating profit 3,006 Dividend cover DPS NAV per share EPS Turnover2,879+ 4% % (50)(52)- 4% % 16.0p12.25p+ 31% 5.1x5.6x- 80.8p68.5p+ 18% 368p305p+ 21% 31% Change 8

9 Turnover £m Operating profit Operating margin Change £m Change George Wimpey Laing Homes Morrison Homes* Other TOTAL 1,976+ 2% %17.1%18.5% %43+ 3%12.4%13.3% % %11.9%14.6% --(11)- 3,006+ 4% % Segmental analysis *Exchange rate in 2004 $/£=1.83, 2003 $/£=1.64 9

10 2004 completions Completions NoChange£ / $Change Ave selling price GW private GW affordable Laing private Laing affordable UK total US total GROUP TOTAL 10, % £182, % % £85, % % £320, % % £110, % 12, % 4, % $289, % 16, % 10

11 Yr to Dec 2003 Yr to Dec 2004 £m Cash flow summary Operating profit Land spend Land realisations Other working capital movements CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATIONS (853)(935) (11)(92) Interest Tax Dividends Other movements REDUCTION / (INCREASE) IN NET DEBT 43(49) (118)(91) (25)(34) (198)*6 (154)8 *Includes £215m acquisition payment for Laing Homes 11

12 Balance sheet – net assets Dec 2003* Dec 2004 Fixed assets Land Land creditors Other current assets Tax and provisions TOTAL NET ASSETS ,7291,941 (290)(282) (76)(123) 1,6971,960 £m *restated for UTIF 38 12

13 Dec 2003* Dec 2004 Shareholders’ funds £m Net debt £m Capital employed £m 1,1681, ,6971,960 Gearing Interest cover 45%36% 8.3x10.1x Balance sheet – financing * restated for UITF 38 ROACE 28.5%27.4% 13

14 Impact of weakening dollar Morrison $ op profit Ave exchange rate Morrison £ turnover Change $118.6m$188.0m+ 59% $/£ = 1.64$/£ = 1.83 £608m£705m+ 16% Morrison $ turnover$998m$1,290m+ 29% Morrison £ op profit£72.3m£102.7m+ 42%  Adverse effect on turnover £82m  Adverse effect on operating profit £11.9m  Adverse effect on PBT£10.2m 14

15 Treasury  Committed facilities from diversified sources  £302m US private placements  £945m bank syndicated and bilateral facilities  all bank facilities renegotiated on improved terms  Interest rate exposure cautiously managed  net debt at year end £521m of which £430m at fixed rates  hedge accounting not adopted for interest rate hedging instruments – focus on underlying economic risk  Joint ventures  joint ventures formed for two inner city developments to limit concentrated risk 15

16 IFRS / IAS  2004 to be restated prior to interim’s close period  Most significant area – pensions  FRS 17 no major changes  Other areas of consideration  dividends  land acquisition on deferred terms  LTIPs / share options  hedge accounting  goodwill 16

17 2004 financial summary  PBT ahead of expectations - up 19% to £451m  Continued strengthening of margins across all businesses  GW up 1.4pp to 18.5%  Laing up 0.9pp to 13.3%  Morrison up 2.7pp to 14.6%  Group ROCE: 27.4%  UK = 25.8%  US = 33.8%  Gearing reduced to 36%  Full year dividend increased by 31% to 16.0p  dividend cover now 5.1x 17

18 UK Business Review Peter Redfern Chief Executive, George Wimpey UK

19 Market 2004  October / November very quiet  much of industry incentive led – eg part ex and shared equity  cancellations well above average  urgency to buy at low level  Different drivers impacting on market sectors  owner occupiers fear of interest increases and price falls  investors looking for bargain opportunities  December at more normal levels  Professional sales approach is key strength  customer service and customer options  sales and site presentation 19

20 Market 2005 and outlook  Market so far in 2005  visitor level higher than 2004 and 2003  first time buyers starting to return – c.20% of sales  GW / Laing position  outlets currently up 12% on 2004  sales rate below high Q levels  Industry fundamentals still in place  continued supply shortfall – no improvement in planning  growth in number of households exceeds forecasts  rental values holding up well in most markets 20

21 Sales activity to Week 7 - GW Outlets Ave sales rate per outlet Ave weekly visitors per outlet  Laing sales rate to Week 7 is 0.50 (2004 = 0.52) 21

22 Financial summary George Wimpey Laing Homes Total completions Private completions Private ASP Turnover £m Operating profit £m Operating margin 11,12211,8131,1101,096 10,34511, £182,000£168,000£320,000£315,000 1,9761, %17.1%13.3%12.4% 22

23 UK housing – Five year review Total completions Operating margin % Operating profit £m Turnover £m PD ASP £ , %12,232193,400 1, %11,437113,000 1, %11,537122,600 2, %13,720152,600 2, %12,909179,700 23

24 UK housing – product mix % 33% 43% % 32% 42% H % 42% FY % 32% 37% Flats 2 / 3 bed houses 4 / 5 bed houses 24

25 Price points k k100k - 150k150k - 200k200k - 250k250k - 300k300k - 500k500k+ No of completions GW Laing 66% of private completions below £200,000 85% of private completions below £250,000 Price band £ 25

26 Land  Strengthening position despite being very cautious during H  Hurdle rates raised again in October North Midlands South City Laing TOTAL 15,396 12,716 5,052 15,297 2,658 51,119 13,526 12,047 5,021 14,483 3,531 48,608 4,934 5, , ,571 4,959 5, , , Owned and controlled plots Long term acres 26

27 Operating margin on land acquired PBIT % 27

28 Land quality  Land bought at an average plot cost of £46.8k (2003: £53.6k)  Nearly 15,000 plots received detailed planning  c.95% of 2005 GWUK volumes have full planning  Land bank is of a good quality: ASP £000s Cost per plot £000s 2004Landbank Land value % ASP %24.8% 28

29 Margins and costs  Margins continued improving by 1.4% to 17.8%  Target is to make net cost movement negligible  subcontractor cost pressures are low  specific material price increase pressures  Since September, strong focus on  housetype and specification efficiencies  subcontract, material and waste savings ...processes in place to save £20m of costs in 2005  There are some inevitable underlying cost movements...  building regulation changes  increase in brownfield / contaminated sites  …but scale remains a key advantage 29

30 Looking forward  From October, market peaked and there has been small correction  At present, better than expected but still delicate  Well placed to benefit from Government housing strategy  delivery of design and sustainability standards  innovation in construction  affordable housing / Social Housing Grant  To be successful in this market we have to get basics right  land acquisition and planning  construction costs  sales processes / options  customer satisfaction 30

31 US Business Review Stu Cline Chairman, Morrison Homes

32 US economy 5.25% (yr end) 5.25 – 6.50%Prime rate 2.2m2.0 – 2.2mJob growth 5.75% (yr end) 5.75 – 6.75%30-yr fixed mortgage rate 4.4%3.5%GDP growth Forecast* Key indicators  Forecasts particularly strong for Morrison markets  25% of above job growth forecast for California, Florida and Texas  Buoyant consumer confidence *Source: NAHB 32

33 US housing market  2004 was another record year  1.6m Single Family starts1.2m New Home sales  National price inflation c.5-7% but up to 15% in some markets  Market continues to be supported by strong fundamentals  population growth  affordability  low unemployment  Strong visitor and sales rates  Forecasts for 2005 (from NAHB):  SF starts of c.1.55mNH sales of c.1.15m 33

34 Financial summary 4,4223, %Legal completions $289,000$270,000+ 7%Ave selling price $1,290m$998m+ 29%Turnover $188.0m$118.6m+ 59%Operating profit 14.6%11.9%+ 2.7ppOperating margin Change 34

35 Five-year review Completions Operating margin % Operating profit $m Turnover $m ASP $ %3,661270,000 1, %4,422289, %2,638227, %2,900238, %3,197252,000 CAGR-+37%--+6% 35

36 Plots owned / under option Plots controlled Total landbank 15,30418,892 1,6632,687 16,96721,579 Land spend $m Land 36

37 Going forward 2004  Improving US economy and record year in housing  Good volume growth  Strong margin performance  Excellent operating profit growth  Repositioned product mix  Improving position in challenging markets 2005  US economy and housing projected to remain strong  Land in place for further organic growth  Further benefits of scale  Excellent order book in terms of volumes, ASP and margins  After 7 weeks, visitors/sales rates, ASPs, margins all ahead 37

38 Strategy and outlook Peter Johnson Group Chief Executive

39 Business environment  Market slower  lower sales rates  broadly stable prices  Increased Govt regulation  planning no better  limited action on Barker  increased costs  influencing product mix  Land market  competitive  Market to remain strong  high sales rates  price momentum  Pro-development culture  supports growth  limited taxes and restrictions on product mix  Land market  competitive  but good availability UKUS 39

40 Strategy: Group  Target volume growth in both UK and US  Pace and priorities driven by  business environment  ability to sustain returns > cost of capital  Focus on areas of competitive advantage  Maintain above average asset turns (to generate cash)  Provide shareholders with enhanced returns through dividend growth 40

41 Strategy: UK  Plan is in place  enhanced regional structure - satellites include Scotland, East Midlands, Sussex  growth of Laing as second brand - new regions include East and Southwest England  use of both brands on larger sites  Cautious implementation: prioritising margin over growth  Limited exposure to inner city developments, social housing  Meanwhile, focus on additional outlets to support volume 41

42 Strategy: US  Maximise growth where  land is available on right terms  underlying market and returns are sustainable  management team is strong  Build on scale and success in  Central Florida: Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota  Northern California: expansion of Central Valley  Phoenix  Land in place to sustain organic growth at historic rate 42

43 Outlook: UK glass half empty…or half full?  After 7 weeks, it is too early to call 2005 market  Background is key: 2004 H2 was weak  But early signs for 2005 are encouraging  visitors  selling rates  use of incentives  Order book c.5% below 2004 at slightly lower margins  However, outlets open +12%, reducing margin pressure  2005 will be H2 biased 43

44 Outlook: US set for continued progress  2004 an all-time record for single family home sales  2005 forecast to be another strong year  Sales rate to week 7 above strong 2004 performance  Order book up c.30% at better margins  Land in place to support growth plans in 2005 and beyond 44

45 Outlook: summary US exposure provides balance  UK has started 2005 at better end of our expectations  though it is still too early to make firm judgements  lower sales rate offset by additional outlets  margins will be under pressure if no price growth  therefore focus on £20m cost saving programme  US has started 2005 very strongly  sales rate ahead of strong 2004  new outlets opening through the Spring  prices and margins continue to move forward 45

46 Forthcoming events  AGM trading update14 April  Morrison presentations and dinner14 April  Impact of IFRSQuarter 2  Pre-close trading update5 July  Interim results6 September 46

47 Q&A

48 George Wimpey Plc 2004 Preliminary Results  Appendix

49 Pensions – UK defined benefit scheme 2004 (While the net deficit is unchanged at £130m the benefit of addressing the early retirement from a deferred status has been balanced by the strengthening of the mortality assumptions used) FRS 17 – P&L (of which £8m non cash expenses on interest line) SSAP 24 - P&L expense SSAP 24 - Balance sheet net asset £11m £19m FRS 17 – Balance sheet net deficit £19m £130m Accounting Service cost Deficit contribution £8m £15m Total£23m Cash – paid into scheme during 2004 (in line with our plans disclosed in the 2003 results’ presentation)  Benefits  scheme closed to new members in 2002  active employee benefits modified and more equitable cost sharing implemented  terms for early retirement from deferred status now addressed  Investment Strategy  69% of fund invested in bonds and cash (2003: 70%) 49

50 Group reservations 9,80411, , ,91813, ,8223, ,74016, GW private Laing private GW affordable Laing affordable UK TOTAL US TOTAL GROUP TOTAL ReservationsAve outlets Per outlet / per week 50

51 George Wimpey - turnover analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 PD volume 11,2287,1034,12510,3456,1254,220 PD ASP £ PD turnover £m 1,8861, ,8841, Social volume Social ASP £ Social turnover £m Other turnover Total turnover £m 1,9331, ,9761,

52 Laing Homes - turnover analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 PD volume PD ASP £ PD turnover £m Social volume Social ASP £ Social turnover £m Other turnover Total turnover £m

53 George Wimpey - margin analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross margin % Gross profit £m Selling expenses £m(63.1)(33.3)(29.8)(65.2)(34.1)(31.1) Overhead costs £m(92.9)(49.9)(43.0)(96.7)(49.7)(47.0) Operating profit £m Operating margin %

54 Laing Homes - margin analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross margin % Gross profit £m Selling expenses £m(12.0)(7.5)(4.5)(10.8)(5.7)(5.1) Overhead costs £m(23.4)(13.0)(10.4)(20.7)(9.9)(10.8) Operating profit £m Operating margin %

55 PD activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 GW Ave. house size (sq ft) 1,0531,0511,0561, ,067 GW Ave. selling price (£ / sq ft) Laing Ave. house size (sq ft) 1,2321,1921,3171,1211,1491,088 Laing Ave. selling price (£ / sq ft)

56 George Wimpey - geographic mix Legals Legals Size sqft ASP £000 North 3,9481, ,5821, Midlands 3,7671, , South 3,1871, , Total 11,2281, ,3451, Size sqft ASP £000 City Private development 56

57 George Wimpey - product mix 2004 YearH2H1 Apartments / 3 bed houses / 5 bed houses Total YearH2H % 57

58 George Wimpey - price mix % Total YearH2H1YearH2H % completions by price band £000s 58

59 Laing Homes - product mix 2004 YearH2H1 Apartments / 3 bed houses / 5 bed houses Total YearH2H % 59

60 Laing Homes - price mix – 1, , Total YearH2H1YearH2H % completions by price band £000s 60

61 Total UK landbank by region Owned and controlled plots Long term acres North Midlands South Total 15,39613,526 12,71612,047 15,29714,483 51,11948,608 4,9344,959 5,5295,682 7,1087,980 17,57118,621 City2,6583,531-- Laing5,0525,

62 George Wimpey - short-term land YearH2H1YearH2H1 Start of period 29,53630,60529,53630,50631,01830,506 Additions 12,7837,3445,43914,0398,9675,072 Legal completions (11,813)(7,443)(4,370)(11,122)(6,562)(4,560) End of period 30,506 30,60533,423 31,018 CONTROLLED 13,081 11,95712,644 15,235 TOTAL LANDBANK 43,587 42,56246,067 46,253 Plots OWNED 62

63 Plots George Wimpey - owned land 2003* 2004 Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank 29, ,025 30, ,220 Additions 12, , Completions (11,813)(36.8)(435) (11,122)(40.1)(446) End of period 30, ,220 33, ,423 Short term Cost per plot £k Value £m Long term Acres Value £m Acres Value £m End of period 18, ,57185 *restated for consistency with 2004 figures 63

64 Plots Laing - owned land Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank 2, , Additions 1, , Completions (1,096)(87.6)(96) (1,110)(86.5)(96) End of period 3, , Short term Cost per plot £k Value £m 64

65 Plots Total UK - owned land 2003* 2004 Plots Cost per plot £k Value £m Opening landbank 32, ,264 33, ,496 Additions 14, , Completions (12,909)(41.1)(531) (12,232)(44.3)(542) End of period 33, ,496 37, ,698 Short term Cost per plot £k Value £m Long term Acres Value £m Acres Value £m End of period 18, ,57185 *restated for consistency with 2004 figures 65

66 Morrison Homes - turnover analysis 2004 YearH2H1 PD volume 4,4222,7081,714 PD ASP $000s PD turnover $m 1, Other turnover $m YearH2H1 3,6612,1401, Total $m 1,

67 Morrison Homes - margin analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Gross margin % Gross profit $m Selling expenses $m(56.1)(32.2)(23.9)(64.0)(37.3)(26.7) Overhead costs $m(54.2)(29.5)(24.7)(64.9)(35.3)(29.6) Operating profit $m Operating profit $m

68 Morrison Homes - PD activity analysis YearH2H1YearH2H1 Ave. house size (sq ft) 2,4152,4022,4332,3862,3712,409 Ave. selling price ($ / sq ft)

69 Operating margin Operating profit Turnover Morrison Homes - regional performance , (14.8) (20.3) * $m 2004 $m Corporate Total Southwest Southeast West 2003* $m 2004 $m 2003* % 2004 % *restated to reflect new regional profile 69

70 Morrison Homes - legals 2004 YearH2H1* West 1, Southeast 2,0921, Southwest 1, Total 4,4222,7081, Year*H2*H1* , , ,6612,1401,521 *restated to reflect new regional profile 70

71 Morrison Homes - average selling price 2004 $000 % Change West Southeast Southwest Total % +2% +1% +7% 2003* $ *restated to reflect new regional profile 71

72 Morrison Homes - price mix % < Total YearH2H1YearH2H % completions by price band $000s 72

73 Morrison Homes - short-term land 2004 YearH2H1 End of period 2,687 2,606 TOTAL LANDBANK 21,579 20,062 LAND SPEND $m OWNED AND OPTIONS 2003 YearH2H1 Start of period 15,30417,45615,304 Additions 8,0104,1443,866 Legal completions (4,422)(2,708)(1,714) End of period 18,892 17,456 11,79612,57411,796 7,1694,8702,299 (3,661)(2,140)(1,521) 15,304 12,574 1,663 2,751 16,967 15, CONTROLLED 73


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