1. 1 Turkey : Struck by the Global Crisis, on Her Way to Recovery, and Still Transforming December 11, 2009

2. 2 Some Food for Thought What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment? Are global imbalances here to stay or will they be eliminated surely but slowly or even better quite fast? What will the engine of growth for the world economy or are there none in sight at the moment? How likely is decoupling in the near future? How is an important and sizeable emerging market like Turkey affected in this crisis and are there any stories that come from hers? Are there any paradigmatic shifts in the way analysts may be thinking about growth dynamics in emerging markets? What does the fiscal picture look like for developed and emerging market economies going forward ?

3. 3 GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT

4. 4 GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT

5. 5 Public and Private Sectors’ Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT

6. 6 Net Exports’ Contribution to Growth Source: TURKSTAT

7. 7 Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT

8. 8 Sectors’ Contributions Source: TURKSTAT

9. 9 Contributions to Growth Source: TURKSTAT

10. 10 Private Fixed Capital Investments Source: TURKSTAT

11. 11 Growth Forecasts Source: YK Economic Research

12. 12 Industrial Production (YoY Growth) Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

13. 13 Industrial Production : MoM Growth ( Seasonally and Effective Days Adjusted Series ) Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

14. 14 Industrial Production : Sector Growth Rates Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

15. 15 Industrial Production :September / Contributions Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

16. 16 Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level

17. 17 Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level

18. 18 Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level

19. 19 Impact Assessment at the Subsector Level

20. 20 Capacity Utilization

21. 21 Sources of Capacity Underutilization

22. 22 Non-Farm Unemployment Rate (%) Source: TURKSTAT

23. 23 Thresholds for TRY/USD Exchange Rate Source: YK Economic Research

24. 24 Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

25. 25 Contributions to Monthly Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

26. 26 Contributions to Yearly Inflation Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

27. 27 Inflation Source: TURKSTAT

28. 28 Inflation: Goods vs. Services Source: CBRT

29. 29 Inflation Expectations Source: CBRT

30. 30 Gross External Debt Profile of Turkey Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

31. 31 GENERAL GOVERNMENT NOMINAL DEBT STOCK (EU- DEFINITION) / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

32. 32 General government consolidated gross debt as a percentage of GDP Source: EUROSTAT

33. 33 Net Public Debt Stock / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

34. 34 Net Public Debt Stock / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury

35. 35 Central Administration Budget- 2009 Realizations Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research

36. 36 Revenues vs. Non-interest Expenditures (Real) Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research

37. 37 External Balance Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

38. 38 Financial Account (6-Month Rolling) Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research

39. 39 Financial Account (6-Month Rolling) Source: Turkstat, YK Economic Research

40. 40 Primary Surplus (% of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research

41. 41 Current Account Deficit (12-Month Rolling) Source: CBRT, TDM, YK Economic Research

42. 42 Non-Debt Financing of CA Deficit Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

43. 43 FDI ($ bln) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, YK Economic Research

44. 44 Bond Rates & O/N Source: ISE, CBRT

45. 45 Real Interest Rate & Real Exchange Rate * deflated via CPI ** CPI based, 1995=100 Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT

46. 46 Shares in Bond Stock Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

47. 47 Bond Stocks (Billion TL) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

48. 48 Consumer Credits (% ch of 8W rolling) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

49. 49 Commercial Credits (% ch of 8W rolling) Source: CBRT, YK Economic Research

50. 50 CBRT Expectations Survey Source: CBRT

51. 51 CBRT Expectations Survey Source: CBRT

52. 52 CBRT Expectations Survey Source: CBRT

53. 53 Relative Currency Performances 31 December 2007= 1.00 Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research

54. 54 Relative Currency Performances 31 December 2008= 1.00 Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research

55. 55 MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2007 =1.0) Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research

56. 56 MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2008 =1.0) Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research

57. 57 Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

58. 58 Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

59. 59 Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

60. 60 Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

61. 61 Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets

62. 62 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

63. 63 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

64. 64 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

65. 65 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

66. 66 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

67. 67 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

68. 68 Middle Class in the Making Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research

69. 69 Quintile Inflation Divergence from the Headline Source: TURKSTAT, YK Economic Research