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Natural Gas Update: EIA NARUC Winter Meeting Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration February 23, 2003.

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Presentation on theme: "Natural Gas Update: EIA NARUC Winter Meeting Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration February 23, 2003."— Presentation transcript:

1 Natural Gas Update: EIA NARUC Winter Meeting Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Barbara.MarinerVolpe@eia.doe.gov Energy Information Administration February 23, 2003

2 Presentation Outline Changes in EIA’s electricity data Natural Gas Storage Current Gas Prices Retail Restructuring Update Natural Gas Outlook: Short Term, Long Term EIA’s 2003 Natural Gas Agenda

3 Changes in EIA’s Reporting of Electricity Data

4 Electric Power Sector Reporting by EIA Improves data accuracy. Relies on reports of electric generators instead of energy transporters. Reporting based on principle line of business. Data displays in all EIA products will be consistent. Staged implementation: Annual products first, then monthly products.

5 EIA’s reporting of electricity data Electricity-only and Combined-heat-and- power plants instead of utility/nonutility split Consumption by independent power producers reported in electric power sector instead of the industrial sector. Lag between AER and other annuals and monthlies

6 Natural Gas Industrial Sector Example (Old) Combined heat and power plants associated with manufacturers--included Independent power producers (IPPs)-- included Source of data on independent power producers differs in natural gas and electric power tabulations

7 Natural Gas Industrial Sector Example (New) Combined heat and power plants associated with manufacturers-- included and shown separately Independent power producers (IPPs)-- excluded Source of data on independent power producers is the same in natural gas and electric power tabulations

8 Revisions to 2000 Estimates ItemAER 2000AER 2001 Percent Difference Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatthours) 3,7923,8010.3 Natural Gas Consumption (Trillion Cubic Feet) 22.7123.463.3 Coal Consumption (Million Short Tons) 1,079.71,084.10.4 Petroleum Consumption (Million Barrels Per Day) 19.4819.701.1 Renewable Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu) 6,8236.465-5.2

9 Impact of Revisions to Nonutility Electric Data Total Natural Gas Consumption 0 5 10 15 20 25 199819992000 Year Trillion Cubic Feet AER 2000AER 2001

10 Natural Gas Storage Weekly Storage Survey Current Stock levels

11 Natural Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

12 Revisions Have Become Much Less Frequent 2 revisions in 30 weeks Bars denote weeks in which a revision occurred 5 revisions in 10 weeks

13 Very Low Storage Stocks Expected at the End of the 2002/2003 Heating Season U.S. stocks as of Nov 1 and Heating Season Withdrawals

14 Storage Stocks in the East and Producing Regions are Expected to be in the low range by end of winter 2003

15 NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Near-Month Contract Settlement Price, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price, and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price WTI Gas Spot Price, Gas Futures Price

16 Why Are Natural Gas Prices High? Weather: Temps. avg 5% below normal (13% less than year ago) Storage: 3,116 bcf at start of winter (4% above 5-yr avg. High demand has led to record drawdown (as of 2/14 stocks 27% below 5-yr avg) Production: ’02 production (through Oct.) down about 2.6 percent from ’01 level Net imports: (thru Oct ’02) down 4 percent from ’01 level

17 Status of Residential Choice Programs

18 As of January 2003, Twenty-One States and the District of Columbia Have Some Form of Residential Choice Program

19 Overall nearly 7 percent (4.1 million) of U.S. residential gas customers (60.2 million) are buying gas from marketers CGA has most extensive program. 1.4 million residentials, (82 % of state total) must choose. COH has about 1 million customers participating (33 % of state total) MI has 332,000 (11 % of state total) NY has 319,000 (7.5 % of state total).

20 Some states fine-tuned existing programs in 2002 More stringent marketer certification standards– IL, OH, NY CImproved consumer protection measures– GA, NY, OH

21 Enrollment in existing programs generally increased in 2002 Number of eligible customers increased Programs expanded Eligibility numbers doubled in MI, nearly tripled in VA, increased more than five- fold in WY and nearly seven-fold in IL Number of competitive suppliers increased

22 Short-Term Outlook for Natural Gas

23 Under Base Case assumptions, EIA expects prices to exceed $4 through 2004 (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval) Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003.

24 Total Natural Gas Demand Growth Patterns Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003.

25 Working Gas in Storage (Difference from Previous 5-Year Average) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003.

26 Long-Term Outlook for Natural Gas

27 Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 35 1970198019902000 2010 2025 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 HistoryProjections Production Net Imports Consumption PipelineLiquefied Natural Gas 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2001 2025 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2001, 2025 (trillion cubic feet) Source: AEO 2003

28 Long-term Outlook for the Natural Gas Market U.S. gas demand is projected to grow 54% by 2025, to 35 Tcf Prices will increase slowly to about $3.90 (2001 dollars/mcf) in 2025 ($7.06 in nominal dollars) Imports increase to about 7.8 Tcf by 2025 (including 2.1 Tcf of LNG imports) Rising prices and technology improvements increase reserve additions and production Alaskan Pipeline expected to start service in 2021

29 EIA has Revised the Natural Gas Program to Provide Additional, More Useful Information Strategic Information Planning Short-term market forecast Weekly Market Update New surveys: Weekly Storage, Marketer New recurring reports and special reports Revising way EIA presents electricity data New query system for annual, non-confidential company data Natural gas data quality initiative

30 EIA’S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTS and 2003 AGENDA

31 EIA Natural Gas Products Weekly Market Update, Storage Report, ESAR New surveys: Weekly Storage, Marketer New recurring reports and special reports: productive capacity report (released soon), LNG, derivatives Revising presentation of electricity data Improved access to non-confidential company data Natural gas data quality initiative: ongoing

32 New Natural Gas Data Requirements Marketer sales data in States with active customer choice programs More timely data with weekly underground storage estimates Bringing EIA sector definitions in line with industry record keeping practices More frequent frames updating LNG and improved production data

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