1. InVEST Blue Carbon model October 19 2011 F =Feedback please

2. The Natural Capital Project  Help people understand what we get from nature  Use that understanding to inform decisions

4. With sea level rise? With expanded aquaculture? With nearshore habitat restoration? How will flows of ecosystem services change: InVEST is a scenario assessment tool

5. How might shoreline armoring affect Erosion/flooding from storm events? Coastal and marine recreation? Nursery habitat for key species? Fisheries?

7. Blue carbon model Objectives: – Estimate the amount of atmospheric carbon stored and sequestered by coastal vegetation – Estimate the social value of storage and sequestration

8. Shrimp farming in Honduras (NASA) Goal: What if? -How will carbon storage and sequestration change if we convert mangroves to shrimp farms? -If we restore a salt marsh? -If we pave over a marsh? -How about consequent effects on other ecosystem services? 1987 1999

9. Mangrove carbon budget Long term sequestration (g C/m2/yr) (4+ yrs) 1. high belowground productivity 2. plants trap allocthonous materials 3. anoxia Storage (g C/m2) standing stock, not dynamic aboveground biomass (live) belowground biomass sediments aboveground (dead >1-2 yrs) Adapted from Bouillon et al. 2008 Accounting approach Harvested wood F

10. Inputs Outputs Species Above- ground (gC/m 2 ) Below- ground (gC/m 2 ) Dead (gC/m 2 )Soil (gC/m 2 ) C accu- mulation (gC/m 2 /yr) seagrass sp mangrove sp saltmarsh sp C storage (gC/m 2 ) C sequestration (gC/m 2 /yr) Value of carbon across the seascape Can include details such as plant species, density of vegetation, plant age Map of habitat C pool data set Soil depth? Time since last disturbance or restoration? Type of LULC following conversion? Additional potential inputs: F

12. Global carbon data MangrovesMarshSeagrass Sequestration39 sites122 sites377 sites Above and below- ground biomass C content 32 sites6 sites160 sites Soil C from top meter 62 sites126 sites10 sites (all in Med) (may have more v. soon!) Depth of soil0-11m (n=4)0-7m (n=14)1-7m (n=10) Geographic distribution Florida, Asia and Oceania Mostly east coast N.A. Europe and N.A. Sifleet, S.D., Pendleton, L., Murray, B.C. 2011. State of the Science on Coastal Blue Carbon: A Summary for Policy Makers [datafile]. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University. Durham NC May 2011.

13. Key questions How deep are the sediments? Function of age? How is storage and sequestration affected by habitat conversion, and what is the fate of existing sediment C stocks? – Total loss of C stocks may exceed the removal of standing biomass alone---how do we estimate this? – Do we know enough about the fate of C after different types of conversion? Valuation! Market price vs. social cost etc. F

14. How are sequestration rates affected by habitat conversion, and what is the fate of existing sediment C stocks? F

15. Extra slides

17. Storage depends on species, latitude and density of vegetation, patch size Sequestration depends on species, latitude, sediment delivery -higher latitude species have lower NPP, but higher sequestration, because decomposition rates are lower -slow growing species with a high allocation of biomass to belowground tissues will sequester the most carbon -higher sediment delivery increases sequestration potential because vegetation can store more allocthonous carbon this way. Estimating local carbon stores