1. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Uses of Statistics on Crime, Justice & Security Part 2 Crime, Justice & Security Statistics Produced in Collaboration between World Bank Institute and the Development Data Group (DECDG)

2. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Examples of possible applications of statistics Many policy areas cut across different justice agencies and use statistics to assist in their planning: five examples of uses are given in the following slides: I.Forecasting prison numbers II.Changing remand policies III.Reducing delays in justice IV.Developing sentencing policies V.Considering legal aid policies Other possible uses of statistics are not covered in the slides a.Giving police more powers to end cases by giving fixed fines for petty crime. b.Reducing offending by working with offenders c.Restructuring the justice system 2

3. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. I. Use of Statistics: forecasting prison numbers Growing increase in nearly all countries Leads to higher expenditure Can lead to poorer prison conditions Overcrowding Delays in justice and more miscarriages Possible health problems Prisoners more likely to re-offend on release Lack of government control (eg. EW) Extensive criticism by external agencies. 3

4. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prison Numbers: what is needed I 1.Regular data (preferably monthly) 2.Population, inflow, outflow, capacity 3.Analysis by different types (age, sex, remand/sentenced, by length of sentence, offence, region) 4.Expected date of release recorded 5.Prison conditions (overcrowding, health incidents) 4

5. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prison Numbers: what is needed II Estimate the effect of new sentencing laws Estimate changes in behaviour of agencies due to eg: more policemen: more technology Look at trends in different crime types Look at statistics of social change: –more/fewer tourists: –growing numbers of young people: –more unemployment Use a Model to forecast numbers: –Next year = This year – Outflow + Inflow Discuss forecasts widely and decide on reaction to them. 5

6. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Reaction to forecasts Managers could have different reactions to forecasts of prison growth: 1.Accept the growth and seek for more resources for bigger prisons 2.Accept the growth, recognise there are no more resources and seek to manage the increased overcrowding and worsening of conditions. 3.Reduce growth by changing policies: eg reduce sentencing in courts: Increase use of probation Increased use of electronic tagging in the community Reduce use of remand in custody before trial Introduce prison release policies before end of sentence Introduce (more) prison amnesties 6

7. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Example using prison forecasts YearProjected prison numbers (June each year) Low estimateHigh estimate 201083,90085,700 201184,90088,600 201284,90090,200 201384,00091,100 201483,50092,400 201583,30093,900 Planners in the UK have produced the following future estimates: see http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/docs/stats-prison-population- projections-2009-2015.pdf http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/docs/stats-prison-population- projections-2009-2015.pdf 7

8. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. II. Using Statistics to change remand policies High remand population can lead to wastage of resources: Costs in feeding prisoners many who do not get a prison sentence Costs if remand period does not count against sentence Transport costs in taking cases to court, especially for cases that take a long time to finalize. Long remand periods when prison service not able to start rehabilitation and prisoners get no chance to work or gain skills Increased difficulties for lawyers to advise their clients on their legal rights 8

9. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Remand: What is needed Put together police, courts and prison statistics Numbers in prison: by age, gender, offence, region Length of time spent on remand Estimates of how many do not get prison sentences: maybe a sample survey needed Look at those not remanded to see what problems come about: skipping bail, delays in cases, new crime committed 9

10. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Remand statistics: possible reactions 1.Accept the current situation and seek for the resources to manage it. 2.Allow time served on remand to count against eventual sentence. 3.Allow period before trial to be spent in the community, perhaps under probation supervision or electronic monitoring. 4.Allow those remanded in prison to start training and rehabilitative work 5.Introduce a maximum time before trial to encourage agencies to become more efficient in their work in preparing the evidence for trial 10

11. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. III. Using Statistics to reduce delays What impact do delays in the court process have and how can these impacts or delays be reduced? Is delay a problem with the Court process or resources? Are other factors involved? Can other players in the criminal justice system assist in reducing delay? 11

12. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Delay: What statistics are needed Measure the time from arrest to sentence Break this down between different stages in the process Identify the causes of delay and those who might address them Establish agreed actions between the courts and others 12

13. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Delay: Actions that might result Elements of the court process could be improved, such as setting court dates more quickly and re-organising the availability of court/judicial resources Other agencies called upon to help – such as police ensuring defendants turn up at court Arrangements for producing the prisoner from jail to the court could be improved New arrangements introduced – support or protection for witnesses 13

14. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. IV. Using Statistics to develop sentencing policies Are sentences effective. –What is reconviction rate? What do victims think –What does the public think? Money can be saved by reducing sentences. (Statistics can estimate this.) Increased sentences would cost more money ( Again can be estimated) Sentences could be more similar to those in other countries. Sentencing guidelines could be issued for magistrates and judges. This would give more control. This occurs frequently in the USA. 14

15. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Sentencing: what is needed 15 1 Measure of reconvictions: data base needed: 2 Measures of confidence from surveys: 3 Effect of changes in sentencing: Covered on the next slide. 4 Examine sentencing guidelines from other countries to see whether could be useful.

16. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Example looking at sentencing policy The UK is concerned with sentences for knife crime. Data is on the web site and the trends in prison numbers is: http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/docs/knife-possession- sentencing-bulletin-jan-march-10.pdf 16

17. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. V. Using Statistics to consider legal aid policies In many countries the government pays some defence costs: ‘Legal Aid’ In some countries (EW) LA expenditure is too high. If more offenders aided legally, perhaps through donor money to start with, then this could pay for itself by reducing the costs of the CJS. Legal aid could be on arrest as in some countries (eg England & Wales): for court appearance: or for appeal Some countries have compensation for injury as a result of crime 17

18. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Legal Aid: What is needed Examine other countries’ rules for legal aid and see how they could be modified for your country Look at numbers who currently use defence lawyers Consult lawyers, court staff, offenders, perhaps using a sample survey Work out impact of changes: length of trials, different guilty rates: different sentences, etc. 18

19. Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Conclusions Statistics can assist in developing policy across justice agencies For each proposed policy change a different set of statistics would need to be calculated This would need to be supplemented by surveys of opinion. A base line set of statistics on the current position would be needed Estimates of potential change can then be made Researchers can suggest changes that would be possible from their study of work in other countries. 19