1. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Jeff Hawkins 1, Peter Black 2, Pat Harr 3, and Russ Elsberry 3 Organizations: 1 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943 2 Science Applications International Inc., (SAIC), Monterey, CA 93940 3 Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93940 Sponsor: Office of Naval Research (ONR) Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2, 2010

2. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Genesis Flight Status: Goal: Determine if NHC needs to start advisories! Does low level circulation center exist? Typically done at low levels (1,500’) Used by both NOAA P-3s and AF WC-130J planes Incorporate high density flight level observations

3. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Other Genesis Flight Options? WC-130J Capabilities Ceiling: 300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude (after 2.5-hr transit) Endurance: 12-hour GPS sonde deployment AXBT deployment (98% success rate) SFMR surface wind speeds/rainrate Real-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recorded Radar Video Recording (tilt radar) Air Force WC-130J

4. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Benefits of 30,000’ Invests Dropsondes enable 3-D wind vector profiling: - Is there a low level circulation center (LLCC)? - Is the LLCC tilted with height? - Is the “center” aloft disconnected with the LLCC? - Are the “centers” getting better aligned? - Models have difficulty extending surface data aloft - 3-D measurements needed to create inner-core - 3-D obs needed to fortify “bogus vortex” if used - Shear details crucial to both track and intensity forecast

5. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Benefits of 30,000’ Invests AXBTs (Airborne Expendable Bathythermographs): - Map 3-D ocean thermal structure, - Monitor ocean fronts, eddies, OHC, mixed layer, - Update altimeter/ocean model thermal structures Crucial in “Coupled” TC model forecasting progress - Mesoscale ocean structure can be complex - Altimeters have issues with shallow water (shelf) Faster speeds and thus longer flight tracks Safer for crews and planes

6. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations ITOP/TCS-08 High Altitude Invests High altitude WC-130J flights - 27,000 – 31,000’ during entire storm flight pattern - square spiral, lawn mower, etc Bow-Tie Racetrack Square Spiral Zig-Zag

7. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Surface and mid-level circulation centers are well displaced

8. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations TCS 025 Aug 27-28, 2008 18Z - 07Z North line 2 nd line SE center NW and W shear aloft brings dry air into system that would NOT be mapped with low-level invest

9. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations High altitude “invests” required to map genesis 3-D environment

10. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010 400 mb Winds

11. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations 700 mb Winds Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010

12. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Surface Winds Bottom up development: Closed circulation @ 400 mb Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010 400 mb Winds

13. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations - Atmosphere/ocean 3-D structure poorly sampled - Can we accurately map LLCCs from 30,000’? - Do NWP data assimilation/forecasts efforts suffer? Summary (Status Quo): Negates advancements in aircraft “observing system” - High altitude dropsonde, AXBT, and SFMR obs How can we facilitate WC-130J invest “demo” to test these hypotheses? High altitude Imaging Wind & Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP)?

14. Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Summary Comparison: 1500’ Invest30,000’ Invest LLCC specificationLLCC via dropsonde/SFMR 3-D winds/temp/moisture- Favorable? NWP assimilation data sets Coupled ocean models - AXBTs Need a WC-130J invest “demo” to test these hypotheses?