1. Daffodils, Kudzu, and Emerging Challenges “Trees Are The Answer” OKI Regional Conservation Council Annual Meeting March 29th, 2007 Marc F Hult, Chairman Kenton County Conservation District hult@hydrologist.com www.hydrologist.com

2. Daffodils, Kudzu, and Climate Change – Weather or Not ? Is climate change real? (Is there still “controversy’ ?) Is climate change real? (Is there still “controversy’ ?) Brief history of one data set (Carbon Dioxide) Brief history of one data set (Carbon Dioxide) Repercussions: Repercussions: Temperature (soil air water – including seasonal) Hydrology Ecosystems including trees

3. “Think Global; Act Local” Now that we have ACTED GLOBALY, Now that we have ACTED GLOBALY, LOCAL (RE)ACTION required LOCAL (RE)ACTION required Different paradigm than we may be used to Different paradigm than we may be used to At local level, we can’t directly change the environmental stress At local level, we can’t directly change the environmental stress

4. Daffodils, Kudzu and Climate Change Examples: Warm winters promote northward migration of invasive species and disrupt natural annual cycles of plants and ecosystems

5. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Major cause of “greenhouse effect’ Major cause of “greenhouse effect’ Measured 1958 – Present Measured 1958 – Present Most important environmental data set ever collected (?) Most important environmental data set ever collected (?) First result was to that the global atmosphere varied systematically on an annual basis First result was to that the global atmosphere varied systematically on an annual basis Demonstrates long-term CO2 increase Demonstrates long-term CO2 increase Demonstrated global effect of Forests in controlling atmosphere Demonstrated global effect of Forests in controlling atmosphere

11. February 8 2007 Nature: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has served a useful purpose in removing the last ground from under the climate-change skeptics'’ feet, leaving them marooned and ridiculous” “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has served a useful purpose in removing the last ground from under the climate-change skeptics'’ feet, leaving them marooned and ridiculous” ( Converts include Citicorp and Duke Energy) ( Converts include Citicorp and Duke Energy)

12. Wednesday March 28, 2007 ‘As representative Ed Whitfield, Kentucky Republican (lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union: 90 out of 100) told Mr. Gore, “I think everyone recognizes – as you have said and the scientific community agrees – that there is global warming caused by human activity. ‘’ ‘ ‘As representative Ed Whitfield, Kentucky Republican (lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union: 90 out of 100) told Mr. Gore, “I think everyone recognizes – as you have said and the scientific community agrees – that there is global warming caused by human activity. ‘’ ‘

13. Global Temperature record, 1850-2007 Eleven of the twelve warmest years have now occurred in the past twelve years Eleven of the twelve warmest years have now occurred in the past twelve years

14. Impact on Biodiversity of invasive species Shift in -20C (-4F isocline) Source: Sasek and Strain. 1990. Climatic Change 16:31-51 Invasives typically good at migrating and adapting to change Rare or endangered species typically less mobile and adaptive

15. Plants blooming earlier Compared to 1960’s (NE US) Lilacs: 4 days earlier Grapes: 6 days earlier Apples: 9 days earlier Source: Wolfe and others, 2005 in International Jornal of Biometeorology 49:303-309

16. Over-wintering insects Average monthly December, January, and February temperatures good predictors Average monthly December, January, and February temperatures good predictors Examples flea beetle, corn earworm Examples flea beetle, corn earworm

17. Impact of climate change on crops Some crops may benefit from warmer winters (grapes) Some crops may benefit from warmer winters (grapes) But inadequate chill period may harm others (eg apples) But inadequate chill period may harm others (eg apples)

18. CO2 concentration affects different plants differently Poison ivy plants grow faster and are more allergenic at increased CO2 concentrations (Mohan and others 2006. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 103(24): 9086-9089) Herbicide efficacy (eg Roundup) reduced Ziska and others. 1999. Weed Science 47:608-615.)

19. Examples of Ongoing Research USGS climate change program focused in four areas: USGS climate change program focused in four areas: Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability Climate change over decades to centuries Climate change over decades to centuries Changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and atmospheric chemistry Changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and atmospheric chemistry Changes in land cover and in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems Changes in land cover and in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

20. The major questions driving the assessment include: What are the current environmental stresses and how are they likely to play out in the future without a change in climate or climate variability? What are the current environmental stresses and how are they likely to play out in the future without a change in climate or climate variability? How will a change in climate or climate variability affect these environmental stresses? How will a change in climate or climate variability affect these environmental stresses? How can people cope with climate variability and change in ways that help with other environmental stresses? How can people cope with climate variability and change in ways that help with other environmental stresses? What knowledge and information do people need to better estimate the consequences of climate variability and change? What knowledge and information do people need to better estimate the consequences of climate variability and change?

21. And So On …. Marc F Hult Daniel Carter Beard Environmental Center hult@hydrologist.com