2. Introduction to GIS Modeling Week 6 — GIS Modeling Procedures GEOG 3110 –University of Denver Presented by Joseph K. Berry W. M. Keck Scholar, Department of Geography, University of Denver Models (pipeline spill and electric transmission line routing) Anatomy of a GIS Model (landslide susceptibility) Mini-Project discussion other GIS Model Examples as time allows (land planning, wildfire risk and retail competition analysis)

3. Online Exam 1 (Midterm) This exam is a 2.5 hour, closed book affair taken over the Internet (honor system) — you can take during any 2.5-hour block after 8:00 am Friday February 10 and must be completed by 5:00 pm Wednesday February 15 (submit via email to jberry@innovativegis.com) You will download the exam from the class website, Homework Section (time/date stamped) and email the completed document to me within 2.5 hours Note– Tutor25.rgs, Agdata.rgs, Island.rgs, Bighorn.rgs, GosseEgg.rgs and Smallville.rgs databases are accessed from MapCalc Have a hand calculator or use Window’s Calculator… Start  Programs  Accessories  Calculator Note that there will be three parts to the exam — answer FIVE questions for Part 1, ONE from Part 2 and ONE from Part 3 (Berry) How things work: Choose 1 of the three 50- point questions… Part 2 50 Points Terminology/concepts: Choose any 5 of the seven 10-point questions (i.e., do not answer two) (i.e., do not answer two) Part 1 50 Points Mini-exercises: Choose 1 of the three 50- point questions Part 3 50 Points

4. Class Logistics and Schedule Berry Midterm Study QuestionsMidterm Study Questions (hopefully you are participating in a study group) Midterm Study Questions Midterm Exam …you will download and take the 2.5-hour exam online (honor system) sometime between 8:00 am Friday February 11 and must be completed by 5:00 pm Wednesday February 16 Exercise #6 (mini-project) — you will form your own teams (1 to 3 members) and tackle one of the six mini-projects; we will discuss the project “opportunities” in great detail later in class— Must email team membership and choice of project by midnight tonight …assigned tonight Thursday, February 10 and final report due Monday, February 20 by 5:00pm …assigned tonight Thursday, February 10 and final report due Monday, February 20 by 5:00pm Exercises #8 and #9 — to tailor your work to your interests, you can choose to not complete either or both of these standard exercises; in lieu of an exercise, however, you must submit a short paper (4-8 pages) on a GIS modeling topic of your own choosing. Submit the Report’s Body and Appendix separately as Word.doc files …Web Layout with “fixed” Figure Tables not to exceed 6.5 inches in width …Web Layout with “fixed” Figure Tables not to exceed 6.5 inches in width No Exercise Week 7 — a moment for “dance of celebration”

5. Spatial Analysis Operations – Spatial Context Map Analysis Toolbox Grid Map Layers GIS and Map-ematical Perspectives (SA) Berry Basic GridMath & Map Algebra ( + - * / ) Advanced GridMath (Math, Trig, Logical Functions) Map Calculus (Spatial Derivative, Spatial Integral) Map Geometry (Euclidian Proximity, Narrowness, Effective Proximity) Plane Geometry Connectivity (Optimal Path, Optimal Path Density) Solid Geometry Connectivity (Viewshed, Visual Exposure) Unique Map Analytics (Contiguity, Size/Shape/Integrity, Masking, Profile) Map-ematical Perspective: Reclassify (Position, Value, Size, Shape, Contiguity) Overlay (Location-specific, Region-wide) Distance (Distance, Proximity, Movement, Optimal Path, Visual Exposure) Neighbors (Characterizing Surface Configuration, Summarizing Values) GIS Perspective:

6. Map-ematical Perspective (Examples) Map Calculus — Spatial Derivative, Spatial Integral Advanced Grid Math — Math, Trig, Logical Functions y = fn(x) The integral calculates the area under the curve for any section of a function. Curve The derivative is the instantaneous “rate of change” of a function and is equivalent to the slope of the tangent line at a point. y = e x Spatial Integral Surface COMPOSITE Districts WITH MapSurface Average FOR MapSurface_Davg MapSurface_Davg …summarizes the values on a surface for specified map areas (Total= volume under the surface). Slope draped over MapSurface 0% 65% Spatial Derivative …is equivalent to the slope of the tangent plane at a location. SLOPE MapSurface Fitted FOR MapSurface_slope Fitted Plane Surface 500 2500 MapSurface Advanced Grid Math Surface Area …increases with increasing inclination as a Trig function of the cosine of the slope angle SArea= Fn(Slope) Berry

7. Elevation Surface Overland Flow Model 1) The Pipeline is positioned on the Elevation surface 1) Pipeline 2) Flow from Spill Points along the pipeline are simulated X 2) Spill Point #1 3) High Consequence Areas (HCA) are identified 3) HCA 4) A Report is written identifying flow paths that cross HCA areas X HCA Impact 4) Report 5) Overland flow is halted when Flowing Water is encountered (Channel Flow Model) 5) Flowing Water Spill Migration Modeling (mini-Project 8 “essence”) (Berry)

8. Types of Surface Flows (Berry) Common sense suggests that “water flows downhill” however the corollary is “…but not always the same way” (See Beyond Mapping III online book, Topic 20 “Surface Flow Modeling” at www.innovativegis.com/basis) Beyond Mapping III Beyond Mapping III

9. Characterizing Overland Flow and Quantity (Berry) Intervening terrain and conditions form Flow Impedance and Quantity maps that are used to estimate flow time and retention Link to Spill1_animationSpill1_animation (Over) (Thru)

10. Simulating Different Product Types (Berry) Flow Velocity is a function of— Specific Gravity (p), Viscosity (n) and Depth (h) of product Slope Angle (spatial variable computed for each grid cell) Physical properties combine with terrain/conditions to model the flow of different product types

11. Characterizing Impacted Areas (Berry) Flows from spill 1, 2 and 3 The minimum time for flows from all spills… Drinking water HCA Impacted portion of the Drinking water HCA characterizes the impact for the High Consequence Areas characterizes the impact for the High Consequence Areas

12. Modeling Stream Channel Flow (Vector) (Berry) Channel Flow Model 1) Channel Flow Time 0 hr 7.3 hr 8.4 hr 9.6 hr 10.8 hr 10.1 hr 13.1 hr 11.2 hr 13.6 hr 1) Channel Flow times along stream network segments are added Base Point 2) Overland Flow time and quantity at entry is noted X.14.12.27.12.25.72.78 X Overland Flow (2.5 hours) 2) Overland Flow Entry Time X = 12.10 +.36 = 12.46 hr away from Base Point 11.2 hr 13.1 hr 3) Impacted High Consequence Areas (HCA) are identified In = 11.46 hr Out = 9.86 hr HCA 3) Impacted HCA Times HCA 4) Report is written identifying flow paths that cross HCA areas 4) Report of Impacted HCA’s 2.5 + (12.46 -11.46) = 3.5 hours total Overland Flow (Raster)

13. GIS Modeling (Binary Logic; Ranking Model) (Berry) …by simply adding the three binary maps, a Ranking suitability is generated that indicates the number of criteria that are met— 0= none to 3= all three Ordinal, Choropleth Binary Choropleth Calculate Slope Renumber Renum 0, 1

14. GIS Modeling (Arithmetic Average; Rating Model) (Berry) Ratio Isopleth Calculate Renumber Renum 1 - 9

15. GIS Modeling (Simple Buffer Extension) (Berry) Spread Renumber Calculate 0, 1

16. GIS Modeling (Effective Buffer Extension) (Berry) Spread Renumber 0, 1 …but what about a refinement that would create a weighted proximity buffer with declining weight factors for increasing distance— 0 = outside buffer 1 = road cell.9 = close to road : = increasing distance.1 = buffer edge cell 0 - 1 …if you are excited to learn more about GIS Modeling Frameworks, see online book Beyond Mapping II, Topic 5, A Framework for GIS Modeling at …if you are excited to learn more about GIS Modeling Frameworks, see online book Beyond Mapping II, Topic 5, A Framework for GIS Modeling at www.innovativegis.com/basis/BeyondMapping_II/Topic5/BM_II_T5.htmwww.innovativegis.com/basis/BeyondMapping_II/Topic5/BM_II_T5.htm

17. Transmission Line Routing Model (Hypothetical) Criteria – the transmission line route should… Avoid areas of high housing density Avoid areas of high housing density …prefer low housing density …prefer low housing density Avoid areas that are far from roads Avoid areas that are far from roads …prefer close to roads …prefer close to roads Avoid areas within or near sensitive areas Avoid areas within or near sensitive areas …prefer far from sensitive areas …prefer far from sensitive areas Avoid areas of high visual exposure to houses Avoid areas of high visual exposure to houses …prefer low visual exposure …prefer low visual exposure HousesRoads Sensitive Areas Houses Elevation Goal – identify the best route for an electric transmission line that considers various criteria for minimizing adverse impacts. Existing Powerline ProposedSubstation (Berry) (See Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 for more information) See Beyond Mapping IIISee Beyond Mapping III

18. Routing and Optimal Paths (Avoid high housing density) ACCUMULATEDPREFERENCESURFACEEXISTINGPOWERLINE(START) Step 2. Accumulated Preference from the existing powerline to all other locations is generated based on the Discrete Preference map. AVOID AREAS OF HIGH HOUSING DENSITY Housing Density levels (0-83 houses) are translated into values indicating relative preference (1= most preferred to 9=least preferred) for siting a transmission line at every location in the project area. Step 1. Housing Density levels (0-83 houses) are translated into values indicating relative preference (1= most preferred to 9=least preferred) for siting a transmission line at every location in the project area. HOUSESHOUSINGDENSITYDISCRETEPREFERENCEMAP Least preferred (high cost) Most preferred (low cost) (Berry) MOSTPREFERREDROUTEPROPOSEDSUBSTATION(END) Step 3. The steepest downhill path from the Substation over the Accumulated Preference surface identifies the “most preferred route”— Most Preferred Route avoiding areas of high visual exposure Single-criteria Model

19. Routing Model Flowchart (Model Logic) Model logic is captured in a flowchart where the boxes represent maps and lines identify processing steps leading to a spatial solution High Housing Density …build on this single factor this single factor Far from Roads In or Near Sensitive Areas High Visual Exposure Avoid areas of… “Algorithm” “Calibrate” “Weight” Within a single map layer Among a set of map layers Among a set of map layers (Berry) Multi-criteria Model

20. Routing Model Flowchart (Model Logic) Model logic is captured in a flowchart where the boxes represent maps and lines identify processing steps leading to a spatial solution Step 2 Generate an Accumulated Preference surface from the starting location to everywhere Step 2 Start Step 1 Identify overall Discrete Preference (1 Good to 9 Bad rating) Step 1 “Algorithm” “Calibrate” “Weight” Within a single map layer Among a set of map layers Among a set of map layers (Berry) Step 3 Identify the Most Preferred Route from the end location Step 3 End Start Best Route Accumulation Surface Route

21. Most Preferred Discrete Preference Map Least Preferred …identifies the “relative preference” of locating a route at any location throughout a project area considering all four criteria [avoid areas of High Housing Density, Far from Roads, In/Near Sensitive Areas and High Visual Exposure] Most Preferred “Pass” “Mountain” of impedance (avoid) Step 1 Discrete Preference Map Calibrate…thenWeight HDensity RProximity SAreas VExposure (Berry)

22. Step 2 Accumulated Preference Map Splash Algorithm – like tossing a stick into a pond with waves emanating out and accumulating preference as the wave front moves Accumulated Preference Map (most preferred) “Pass” (most preferred) “Pass” …identifies the “total incurred preference” (minimal avoidance) to locate the preferred route from a Starting location to everywhere in the project area (Berry) (digital slide show AccumSurface) AccumSurface

23. Step 3 Most Preferred Route Optimal Route (most preferred) “Pass” (most preferred) “Pass” …the steepest downhill path from the End over the accumulated preference surface identifies the optimal route that minimizes traversing areas to avoid (most suitable) (Berry) (digital video OptimalPath) OptimalPath Note: Straightening and Centering techniques can be applied …see Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 for more information Beyond Mapping IIIBeyond Mapping III

24. Step 4 Generating Optimal Path Corridors (most preferred) “Pass” (most preferred) “Pass” Optimal Corridor (Berry) (digital slide show TotalAccumulation.ppt) TotalAccumulation.ppt …the accumulation surfaces from the Start to the End locations are added together to create a total accumulation surface—the “valley” is flooded to identify the set of nearly optimal routes

25. Model Results (Georgia Experience...EPRI, GTC, Photo Science ) Feature Article in GeoWorld, April, 2004 A Consensus Method Finds Preferred Routing See www.geoplace.com/gw/2004/0404/0404pwr.asp Combining alternative corridors identifies the decision space reflecting various perspectives (Berry)

26. Siting Model Simple Average Equally important Engineering 5 times more important Natural Built Route Weight Calibrate Routing Model Flowchart (Berry) Engineering Linear Infrastructure Slope …maps of the criteria for siting are identified, then interpreted by different stakeholder groups for relative importance in routing Public Lands Floodplain Land Cover Wildlife Habitat Streams/ Wetlands Natural Environment Proximity to Buildings Spannable Lakes/Ponds Proposed Dev.s Land Use Building Density Built Environment Avoidance Areas Non- Spannable Water bodies Mines and Quarries (actvie) Buildings Airports Military Facilities EPA Superfund Sites State and National Parks USFS Wilderness Area Wild/Scenic Rivers Wildlife Refug e Listed Archeology Sites Listed NRHP Districts And Buildings City and County Parks Day Care Centers Cemetery Parcels School Parcels (K-12) Church Parcels …maps identifying areas that must be avoided

27. Alternate Corridors BuiltNaturalEngineering Simple (Average) All …Alternate Corridors for each stakeholder perspective are generated (Berry)

28. Additional Data Collection …extensive site-specific information is gathered within the Alternative Corridor boundaries to aid in refining and selecting final options (Berry)

29. BuiltNaturalEngineeringSimple Generate Alternative Routes (Design Team) …Design Team finalizes the Alternate Routes Exceptions are noted for deviations from optimal paths within the corridor area… …deviations outside the corridor area require variance approval Routes are defined within the Alternative Corridors using expert judgment. Objective Objective Quantitative Quantitative Predictable Predictable Consistent Consistent Defensible Defensible (Berry)

30. Routing Model Experience (Conclusions) See www.innovativegis.com/basis/present/GW04_routing/GW_Apr04_routingPowerline.htm www.innovativegis.com/basis/present/GW04_routing/GW_Apr04_routingPowerline.htm Feature Article in GeoWorld, April, 2004 “A Consensus Method Finds Preferred Routing” (Georgia Experience) See www.innovativegis.com/basis, select, online book Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 “Routing and Optimal Paths” Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19Beyond Mapping III, Topic 19 See www.innovativegis.com/basis, select Column Supplements  Beyond Mapping, September 03, Delphi (Calibration) Column Supplements  Beyond MappingColumn Supplements  Beyond Mapping See www.innovativegis.com/basis, select Column Supplements  Beyond Mapping, September 03, AHP (Weighting) Column Supplements  Beyond MappingColumn Supplements  Beyond Mapping The Methodology is… Objective, Quantitative, Predictable, Consistent, Defensible GIS-based approaches for routing electric transmission lines utilize relative ratings (calibration) and relative importance (weights) in considering factors affecting potential routes. A quantitative process for establishing objective and consistent weights is critical in developing a robust and defendable transmission line siting methodology. (Berry) Note: there are advance techniques for Calibration and Weighting …link to CalibrateWeight.pptCalibrateWeight.ppt

31. Mini-Project (Exercise #6) Exercise #6Exercise #6 (mini-project) — you will form your own teams Exercise #6 (1 to 4 members) and tackle one of eight projects …assigned today and final report due Sunday, February 20 by 5:00pm …assigned today and final report due Sunday, February 20 by 5:00pm (Berry) Project 1 – Hugag Habitat Suitability Revisited Project 2 – Visual Exposure to Timber Harvesting Project 3 – Emergency Response Project 4 – Geo-Business Analysis Project 5 – Landslide Susceptibility Project 6 – Transmission Line Routing Project 7 – Wildfire Risk Analysis Project 8 – Pipeline Spill Migration

32. GIS Modeling (Example Project) Example Project – Slippery Mountain Landfill Suitability In addition, calculate the average landfill suitability rating for each district (Districts map). Finally, generate a map that identifies the average rating within 300 meters (3-cell reach) for each of the housing locations (Housing map). (Berry) …criteria for a 0 (not suitable), 1 (minimally suitable) through 9 (extremely suitable) …Your charge is to prepare a prospectus for deriving the Landfill Suitability map that clearly explains how each of criteria are evaluated and then combined into an overall suitability map that respects the legal constraints and reflects the county commissioners’ criteria weightings.

33. Example Graded Project – Landfill Suitability (Berry) …posted online at class website, under “Lecture Notes” section, Week 6, Graded Mini-Project Example Graded Mini-Project Example

34. Project 1 – Hugag Habitat Suitability Revisited …add four new habitat criteria Hugags like to be near water Hugags are terrified of roads Hugags like cover diversity …implement a weighted average analysis and compare the old and new results (Berry) Hugags like to be near forest edges

35. Project 2 – Visual Exposure to Timber Harvesting (Berry)

36. Project 3 – Emergency Response …first phase off-road travel by ATV starting at any road location and encountering the following ATV_friction for determining effective proximity …second phase proceeds on foot into the ATV inaccessible areas by using the “Explicitly” option to Spread …final map uniquely identifies ocean (blue) and hiking inaccessible areas (grey), and rescue response time (green to red) as both a 2-D map and a 3-D drape on the elevation surface (Berry)

37. Project 4 – Geo-Business Analysis Competition Analysis Part 1— calculate two travel-time maps, one from Kent’s Emporium and the other from Colossal Mart Part 2— create a relative travel-time advantage map clearly shows which store has the relative advantage Part 3— generate a binary map identifying just the “combat” zone where neither store has a strong advantage Part 4— generate a map that identifies the customers in the combat zone. Density Analysis Part 1— Create a customer density surface that identifies the total number of customers within half a kilometer Part 2— Generate a binary map identifying the “pockets” of unusually high customer density (mean + 1 Stdev or more customers per 500m reach). Part 3— Generate a map that shows the relative travel- time advantage within the pockets of unusually high customer density. (Berry)

38. Project 5 – Landslide Susceptibility …criteria for a 0 (not susceptible), 1 (minimally susceptible) through 9 (extremely susceptible) Overall landslide susceptibility is defined as the weighted average rating of the three criteria A second map that identifies the susceptibility ratings for just the uphill areas around roads to 250 meters (2.5 cells) Another map identifying the average landslide susceptibility (1 to 9) within the uphill buffered area around roads for each of the management districts identified on the Districts map

39. Project 6 – Transmission Line Routing (Berry) Discrete Cost Map Accumulated Cost Map Least Cost Path The client, MegaWatt Power, needs to identify three routes— a route that treats visual exposure from houses and roads equally (simple average Cost), a route that treats visual exposure from houses and roads equally (simple average Cost), a route considering visual exposure to houses ten times more important than exposure to roads, and a route considering visual exposure to houses ten times more important than exposure to roads, and a route considering visual exposure to roads ten times more important than exposure to houses. a route considering visual exposure to roads ten times more important than exposure to houses.

40. (Berry) Project 7 – Wildfire Risk Analysis Wildfire Risk is related to— cover type, terrain and human activity factors Wildfire risk needs be summarized in a couple ways… Calculate the average wildfire risk for each of the districts. Create a map that shows the average wildfire risk within a 300 meter buffer around all housing locations. …implement the “common sense” idea that locations closer to the fire station at the Ranch community center (Locations base map) ought to have the calculated risk lowered.

41. (Berry) Project 8 – Pipeline Spill Migration Pipeline Spill is related to— physics, product properties and terrain conditions Identify the implied steepest downhill spill path for each of the three test locations (Spills map) along the proposed new transmission pipeline and map as a 3D Grid display with all three route individually identified and draped over the Elevation surface. Identify the implied steepest downhill spill path for each of the three test locations (Spills map) along the proposed new transmission pipeline and map as a 3D Grid display with all three route individually identified and draped over the Elevation surface. Identify the minimum path time for a spill anywhere along the entire Proposed route (Pipelines map) and map as a 3D Grid display with the spill density map (10 Equal Ranges contours) draped over the Elevation surface. Identify the minimum path time for a spill anywhere along the entire Proposed route (Pipelines map) and map as a 3D Grid display with the spill density map (10 Equal Ranges contours) draped over the Elevation surface. Create a map that shows the estimated minimum time for a spill based on the spill time map (created above) to reach all of the impacted areas with the high population HCA (HCA_Hpopulation map). Create a map that shows the estimated minimum time for a spill based on the spill time map (created above) to reach all of the impacted areas with the high population HCA (HCA_Hpopulation map). To illustrate the model’s sensitivity to different products create another minimum time map for the high population HCA that considers crude oil flow instead of water. To illustrate the model’s sensitivity to different products create another minimum time map for the high population HCA that considers crude oil flow instead of water.

42. GIS Modeling (Mini-Projects) …Good luck!!! There is a “Life-Line” if you get totally stuck. For the price of one grade (drop from 100% possible to 89% possible) I will email you a MapCalc script with the complete solution—you just need to write-up the solution in a “professional, free of grammatical/spelling errors, well-organized, clearly written, succinct manner” that demonstrates your understanding of the processing. General clarification, questions and Life-line requests will be processed via email workdays 8:00-4:00 pm and Saturday/Sunday, 9:00-11:00 am. It behooves you to decide on a project and outline a solution as soon as possible. Note: emergency situations call me at 970-215-0825 (Berry)