1. Regional climatic response to long-term solar activity variations O. Raspopov 1, O. KOZYREVA 2, V. Dergachev 3 1 St. Petersburg Branch (Filial) of Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowaves Propagation of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia 2 Institute of the Physics of the Earth of RAS, Moscow, Russia 3 Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia

2. The ~200-year solar cycle (deVries cycle) is one of the most intense solar cycles. The well known deep solar minina (Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) can be regarded as a manifestation of the de Vries cycle during the past millennia. In recent years numerous studies demonstrate the connection between the solar de Vries periodicity and different climatic parameters. In recent years numerous studies demonstrate the connection between the solar de Vries periodicity and different climatic parameters. However, the climate response to solar activity varies from one region to another. Wiles et al. (2004) showed that the regional climate response to the de Vries variations of solar activity can markedly differ in phase even at distances of several hundred kilometers. This can be due to the nonlinear character of the atmosphere- ocean-continent system response to solar forcing. However, the climate response to solar activity varies from one region to another. Wiles et al. (2004) showed that the regional climate response to the de Vries variations of solar activity can markedly differ in phase even at distances of several hundred kilometers. This can be due to the nonlinear character of the atmosphere- ocean-continent system response to solar forcing.

3. The aim of presentation: To analyze of the influence of long-term solar activity variations on climatic processes - to carry out analysis of a climate response to the de Vries periodicity for different regions of the Earth (Central Asia, Northern Atlantic, Western Canada ) - to show that this response has a regional character

4. DATA To analyze long-term solar activity variation we have used 10-year averaged measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C) concentration in the tree rings over the past millennium [Stuiver et al., 1998]. To analyze long-term solar activity variation we have used 10-year averaged measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C) concentration in the tree rings over the past millennium [Stuiver et al., 1998]. Figure shows the radiocarbon concentration deviations over the past 1000 years. Solar minima are indicated by peaks in 14C concentration. ● Solar activity data Oort Wolf Spörer Maunder

5. * * * * * * Regions from which the palaeoclimatic data used for comparison with ~200-year solar activity variations * Tien Shan mountains Tibetan Plateau Canadian Rockies Finnish Lapland Svalbard Greenland

6. Central Asia data  Reconstructed summer temperature records ΔT for 3 sites in the Tien Shan mountains [Maximov et al., 1972, Mukhamedsin et al., 1988, Esper et al., 2003] The reconstruction was based on juniper tree-ring width record (Juniperus Turkestanica). DATA ● Palaeoclimatic data Figure shows the location of Juniperus Turkestana sampling cities.

7. Central Asia data  Reconstructed precipitation record ΔP for the Tibetan Plateau [Shao et al.,2005]. The reconstruction was based on juniper tree-ring width Record (Sabina przewalsky) for the Tibetan Plateau. DATA ● Palaeoclimatic data

8. Northern Atlantic data  Reconstructed summer temperature record ΔT for Finnish Lapland. The reconstruction was based on pine tree-ring width record (Pinus sylvestris)  Reconstructed summer temperature record ΔT for Finnish Lapland. The reconstruction was based on pine tree-ring width record (Pinus sylvestris)  Reconstructed annual temperature record ΔT for Spitzbergen. Reconstruction was based on δ 18 O record in Svalbard glacier ice [Issaksson et al., 2005]  Reconstructed annual temperature record ΔT for Spitzbergen. Reconstruction was based on δ 18 O record in Svalbard glacier ice [Issaksson et al., 2005]  Reconstructed atmospheric circulation above Greenland [Meeker and Mayewski, 2002]. Reconstruction was based on variations of aerosols concentration in Greenland ice.  Reconstructed atmospheric circulation above Greenland [Meeker and Mayewski, 2002]. Reconstruction was based on variations of aerosols concentration in Greenland ice. DATA ● Palaeoclimatic data

9. Western Canada data  Reconstructed summer temperature record ΔT for Canadian Rockies [Luckman and Wilson, 2005]. The reconstruction was based on pine tree-ring width record (Piceaengelmannii) DATA ● Palaeoclimatic data

10. The data used for analysis Δ 14 С ΔT ΔP TIENSHANTIENSHAN TIBETTIBET 10002000 10002000 SOLARSOLAR Years AD Maximov Mukhamedshin Esper Shao Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 years Result of comparison of ~ 200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Central Asia Solar activity S t u e m m p e r a t u r e Precipi- tation

11. Results of wavelet analysis (Morlet basis) of the solar and climatic data in the range of periods 100-300 years. SOLARSOLAR TIENSHANTIENSHAN TIBETTIBET 1000 2000 Years Δ 14 C ΔTΔT ΔTΔT ΔTΔT ΔPΔP Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Central Asia 100 300 Correlation coefficients R between the solar activity and palaeoclimatic records: Δt, years Δ 14 С – ΔT Maksimov = 0.94 - 150 Δ 14 С – ΔT Mukhamedshin = 0.58 -10 Δ 14 С – ΔT Esper = 0.73 0 Δ 14 C – ΔP Tibetan plateau = 0.84 -100 Maximov Mukhamedshin Esper

12. 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Years AD Summer temperature variations in Canadian Rockies Solar activity variation Initial data Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 years Results of wavelet transformation in the range of periods 180-230 years Initial data Results of filtering in the range of periods 180-230 years Results of wavelet transformation in the Range of periods 180-230 years Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Western Canada 100 300 Correlation coefficient R between the solar activity and Δ T in Canadian Rockies = 0.95

13. Result of comparison of ~ 200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Greenland Years AD Results of wavelet transformation in the range of periods 180-230 years Solar activity Results of spectral-temporal analysis of aerosol concentration variations in Greenland ice: evidence of ~200-year periodicity of atmospheric circulation above Greenland: Change in direction of atmospheric circulation

14. The data used for analysis: reconstructedsummertemperatures Results of filtering in the range of periods 160-250 years Results of wavelet transformation (Morlet basis) of the climatic and solar data in the range of periods 100-300 years ΔTΔT ΔTΔT Δ 14 C SOLARSOLAR SCANDINAVIASCANDINAVIA Result of comparison of ~200-year solar activity and climatic variations for Northern Scandinavia (Finnish Lapland) ΔTΔT 100 300 100 300 ΔTΔT

15. 256 192 128 54 Period of variations, years 1000 1500 2000Years AD 1500 2000Years AD Results of filtering of summer temperature variations in Northern Scandinavia in the range of periods of 160-250 years Climatic response to 200-year variation of solar activity in the Northern Atlantic (Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard) Result of wavelet analysis of variations in annual temperatures based on the data from Svalbard glaciers There is no pronounced response to 200-year solar activity variations in the last millennium in the Northern Atlantic. Development of 200-year climatic variations is observed only after 1500 AD TEMPERATUReTEMPERATURe ΔTΔT

16. Analysis of palaeoclimatic and solar data has shown that - climatic ~200 year variations in the Central Asia, Western Canada, and Greenland correlate well with solar oscillations; - climatic variations in the Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard correlate with solar oscillations only during certain time intervals. What is the reason for such a climatic response to long-term solar forcing?

17. The map demonstrating results of simulation of the temperature response of the atmosphere-ocean system to long-term variations in solar irradiance (Waple et al., 2002). Northern Atlantic (Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard) is the boundary region with an unstable response to long-term solar activity variations * Central Asia is the region with stable positive climatic response to solar forcing There are regions with a stable positive (red) and stable negative (blue) response to increasing solar irradiance and there are boundary regions with an unstable response. Greenland is the region with a stable negative climatic response to solar forcing Western Canada is the region with a stable positive climatic response to solar forcing * * * * *

18. ● Analysis of long-term climatic data based on dendrochronological data for two Central Asia mountain regions (the Tien Shan and Qinhai- Tibetan Plateau), for Western Canada (Canadian Rockies), and Greenland has demonstrated the presence of the ~200-year climatic variations. These variations show a high correlation (up to R= 0.94) with a similar solar periodicity (de Vries period) inferred from the radiocarbon concentration. Conclusions

19. ● A similar analysis for Northern Scandinavia and Svalbard points to an unstable development of the 200-year climatic oscillations during the last millennium. They were pronounced in the second half of the last millennium.

20. Conclusions Analysis of the results obtained in simulation of the effect of long-term variations in solar irradiance on atmosphere temperature has shown that because of an essentially nonlinear processes in the atmosphere-ocean system, the climate response to external long-term solar forcing, including the 200- year variation, differs in different regions of the Earth. The Northern Atlantic is a boundary region between the regions with positive and negative responses to increasing of solar radiation. ● Analysis of the results obtained in simulation of the effect of long-term variations in solar irradiance on atmosphere temperature has shown that because of an essentially nonlinear processes in the atmosphere-ocean system, the climate response to external long-term solar forcing, including the 200- year variation, differs in different regions of the Earth. The Northern Atlantic is a boundary region between the regions with positive and negative responses to increasing of solar radiation.