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Drift of solar constants for the Earth (1), Venus (2) and Marc (3) due to increasing of Sun’s luminosity. Within an interval formed by carves 4 and 5 the.

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Presentation on theme: "Drift of solar constants for the Earth (1), Venus (2) and Marc (3) due to increasing of Sun’s luminosity. Within an interval formed by carves 4 and 5 the."— Presentation transcript:

1 Drift of solar constants for the Earth (1), Venus (2) and Marc (3) due to increasing of Sun’s luminosity. Within an interval formed by carves 4 and 5 the Earth’s type of climate is not principally varied.

2 Variation of СО 2 concentration in the atmosphere

3 Temperature deviation from today’s value 1 – calculation [Budyko et al., 1985] 2 – interpretation of proxy indicators [Frakes, 1979]

4 Variation of СО 2 concentration in the atmosphere

5 Measured concentration of  18 O in surface planktonies [Imbrie et al., 1984] 5e5e 5d5d , 2, 5e, 5d, 6 are some isotopic stages

6 Changes of temperature in north western part of Russian Plane ( 0 C) [Klimanov, 1996.] July JanuaryYear YD Al YD – Younger Dryas, Al – Allered, AT – Atlantic warm event AT

7 Northern summer temperature changes ( 0 С) [Bradley, Jones, 1993] Temperature changes ( 0 С), based on measurements in holes Changes of Alpian glacier’s length [Oerlemans, 1994] Glaciers: 1 – Untere Grindelwaldgletscher, 2 – Rhonegletscher, 3 – Glacier d’Argentiere

8 Climate dynamics and insolation change during last 140 тыс. лет Parameters of the Earth’s orbit 10 3 years BP eccentricity obliquity precession summerwinter Insolation at the top of the atmosphere  18 O

9 Latitude-month distribution of the difference in insolation (W/m 2 ) between 21 and 6 ka and the present 21 ka BP 6 ka BP

10 Equation of the general circulation model (GCM) dX/dt=F, X=X(0)

11 Global surface air temperature 21 ka BP-control from different GCMs Simulations forced by CLIMAP SSTs Simulations with atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model

12 Mean annual temperature anomalies (LGM minus modern) averaged by PMIP models Sites where LGM temperatures have been reconstructed

13 Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land for all available sites

14 Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land for the sites from the areas with simple topography and environments 1 – Western Europe and North Africa 2 - East European Plane 3 – North-East North America 4 – West Siberian Plane 5 – Eastern Siberia and Chukotka 6 – Greenland 7 – Antarctica 8 – Mongolia and North China 9 – Brazil 10 – South Africa 11 – Australia

15 Comparison between reconstructed and simulated mean annual temperatures anomalies (LGM minus modern) over the land averaged by the regions pointed in the legend 1 – Western Europe (9) and North Africa (1) 2 - East European Plane (5) 3 – North-East North America (4) 4 – West Siberian Plane (10) 5 – Eastern Siberia and Chukotka (6) 6 – Greenland (1) 7 – Antarctica (1) 8 – Mongolia (2) and North China (2) 9 – Brazil (1) 10 – South Africa (2) 11 – Australia (1)

16 Mean annual precipitation anomalies (LGM minus modern) averaged by PMIP models

17 Latitude-month distribution of the difference in insolation (W/m 2 ) between 21 and 6 ka and the present 21 ka BP 6 ka BP

18 PMIP-model averaged temperature anomalies ( 0 С) and anomalies of precipitation (mm/day) 6 ka BP (june, july, august)

19 Relationship between precipitation changes over northern India and changes of surface air temperature over central Asia models

20 Temperature ( 0 C) and precipitation (mm/day) anomalies for July, 6-0 ka BP Simulated and recorded temperature anomalies over land MSU model

21 Changes in zonal annual mean precipitation averaged over Northern Africa (6 – 0 ka BP, PMIP results) Max and min bounds for the excess precipitation to support grassland

22 Changes in zonal annual mean precipitation averaged over Northern Africa (6 – 0 ka BP, PMIP results) and impact of ocean feedback Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation

23 Changes of temperature in north western part of Russian Plane ( 0 C) [Klimanov, 1996.] July JanuaryYear YD Al YD – Younger Dryas, Al – Allered, AT – Atlantic warm event AT

24 Scheme of glaciation of the North America during the Younger Dryase and routes of meltwater discharge

25 Time series of the deviation of salinity, sea surface temperature ( 0 C) and ice (sm) from their initial values in the Denmark Strait Fresh water input to the northern North Atlantic (1250-year time integration of GFDL model) Response of the thermochaline circulation of the North Atlantic to fresh water input to its northern part (1) and Caribean region (2)

26 Measured concentration of  18 O in surface planktonies [Imbrie et al., 1984] 5e5e 5d5d , 2, 5e, 5d, 6 are some isotopic stages

27 White noice Red noice Milankovitch cycles

28 Red noice

29 Oscillator for global climate change dT/dt= T(t)+v = … Scaling time and T  denotes the delta-function  is the nondimensional delay,  measures the influence of the returning signal

30 Linear stability analysis T 0 =0,  (1-  ) 1/2 T 0 -  T 0 -T 0 3 =   y=T-T 0 Perturbation from the stationary solution The neutral curve:


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