2. CCaR Project Background IPCC Framework for CCA DRM Approach to Urban Resilience Urban Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Indicators Metro Manila Profile Designing Evidence-based Decision Support Systems Building a mainstreaming toolkit

3. CCaR - Coastal Cities at Risk : Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities 2011-2015 Funded under the International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change or IRIACC by IDRCand the Canadian Tri-Councils Gordon McBean (UWO) and Anond Snidvongs (Chula, GISTDA) Systems dynamics approach to urban risk reduction; develop an original city resilience simulator tool (Simonovic) Vancouver, Lagos, Bangkok and Metro Manila Atmospheric physicists, coastal and marine geologists, epidemiologists, sociologists, geomatics specialists, engineers, planners, science-policy communications experts

4. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

6. Risk as the compounding effect of Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Resilience as the ability of complex systems to respond and recover in space and over time Inter- and trans-disciplinary investigations and validation of physical, socio-economic, health, organizational and economic indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity Building evidence-based decision support systems using climate modeling (downscaling), remote sensing and geographic information systems and statistical analysis Designing the Risk Simulation tool Building a toolkit for mainstreaming

7. Economic – Contribution to NCR GDP, CCA-DRR related Infrastructure Investment plans and Projects Social – Population, Poverty Incidence, Age, Gender, School Enrollment, Literacy Health – Number of Hospitals and Barangay Health Centers, Physicians and beds per 10,000 inhabitants, Number Persons with Access to clean water, morbidity and mortality of waterborne and tropical diseases (dengue, malaria and TB), Nutrition, Life Expectancy, DALYs Governance – Evidence-based CCA-DRR Decision-Making linkages between National-Metro-City, Local CCA-DRR planning and decision-making, environmental quality and land use Adapted from the World Risk Report 2012

8. 600 sq. km. 12 Million people in 16 cities and 1 Municipality Quezon City has the highest population with 2.7M people in 166 sq km Manila has the highest population density with 1.6M in 38.5 sq km NCR contributed 35.7 percent to Philippines GDP in 2011(NSCB) All are 1 st class cities, except Navotas which is 2 nd class and Manila and Quezon City which are in a special class Port Area Manila had the highest poverty incidence as of 2009

9. A

10. From the 1960s to the 2000s there has been an increase in days with heavy rainfall Overall rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclones is increasing Increases in rainfall are due to Tropical Storms and Tropical Depressions rather than Typhoons Initial scenarios show a potential increase in rainfall in the monsoon season Missing and constricted rivers Ground subsidence Land use, densification Industrial and Commercial Development Informal Settlements

11. Potential changes in rainy season rainfall due to GW: ~5-20% 5-20% increase in rainfall in north-western regions Increase occurs at peak of monsoon season Increase is due to more frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall Projected Rainfall Change 2020s

12. Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan Missing Rivers

13. Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan

14. CHOKE POINTS IN PASIG RIVER

15. Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando P. Siringan

17. Legend MUNICIPAL BOUNDARY BUILT-UP 1972 BUILT-UP 1979 BUILT-UP 1989 BUILT-UP 1999 BUILT-UP 2009

18. 19722009

19. 19792009

20. 1972 1979 198919992009 Areas of Concentration 19721979198919992009 San JuanQC Majority can be seen in the Western fringes of Metro Manila Some are in Pasig and Taguig ValenzuelaValenzuela-QC Mandaluyong South Caloocan- Navotas Pasig- Mandaluyong Pasig-Marikina MakatiPasigPasayTaguig ParañaqueTaguigMuntinlupa ParañaqueMuntinlupaParañaque MarikinaTaguigLas Piñas

21. 1997 2000 2010 North Caloocan QC Cainta- Taytay Navotas Malabon South Caloocan North Caloocan QC Cainta- Taytay North Caloocan QC Cainta- Taytay Navotas Malabon South Caloocan Manila Navotas Malabon South Caloocan Makati- Taguig

24. METRO MANILA RISK INDEX ? DR. G.T. Narisma

26. Dr. Emma Porio Dr. Gemma Narisma Dr. Celine Vicente Dr. Kendra Gotangco Dr Fernando Siringan Dr. Posa Perez FORIN Team Jessica Bercilla Julie Dado Emil Gozo,Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz del Castillo, JoEd Perez Raul Dayawon, Patricia Sanchez

27. UNESCO ChristianAid UK START IRDR ICSU NCDR JAXA