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Financial Stability Report 2006:1 May 31, 2006. CHAPTER 1 Financial markets.

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Presentation on theme: "Financial Stability Report 2006:1 May 31, 2006. CHAPTER 1 Financial markets."— Presentation transcript:

1 Financial Stability Report 2006:1 May 31, 2006

2 CHAPTER 1 Financial markets

3 Stock markets in selected countries Index: september 2002 = 100 Figure 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin

4 P/E ratios for Sweden, Europe and the United States Figure 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin

5 Implied stock-market volatility Index Figure 1:3 Source: Bloomberg

6 Historical stock-market volatility in Sweden and the United States Figure 1:4 Source: Reuters EcoWin

7 Ten-year government bond rates Per cent Figure 1:5 Source: Reuters EcoWin

8 Credit spreads in the United States Percentage points Figure 1:6 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Federal Reserve Board and Merrill Lynch

9 Corporate bond spreads in Europe Percentage points Figure 1:7 Source: Reuters EcoWin

10 Credit default swap spreadar Figure 1:8 Source: Bloomberg

11 Spreads for bonds issued by emerging market economies Percentage points Figure 1:9 Source: Bloomberg

12 Oil price and commodity price index USD per barrel and index: February 2002=100 Figure 1:10 Sources: The Economist and Reuters EcoWin

13 Nominal house prices Twelve-month change, per cent Figure B1 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Australian Property Monitor

14 Nominal house prices Twelve-month change, per cent Figure B2 Source: Reuters EcoWin

15 US households’ ability to service house purchases Index Figure B3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

16 CHAPTER 2 The Swedish banks’ borrowers

17 Non-financial companies, borrowing and bank deposits Percentage twelve-month change, three-month moving average Figure 2:1 Source: The Riksbank

18 Non-financial companies, borrowing from securities markets and credit market institutions Miljarder kronor Figure 2:2 Source: The Riksbank

19 Corporate sector gross fixed capital formation and borrowing by non-financial companies from credit market institutions Percentage twelve-month change, four-month moving average Figure 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

20 Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:4 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

21 Returns on equity in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:5 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

22 Number of corporate defaults by company size Figure 2:6 Source: Statistics Sweden

23 Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companies Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:7 Source: Moody’s KMV

24 Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non- financial companies in Nordic countries and Germany Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:8 Source: Moody’s KMV

25 Company acquisitions Figure B4 Sources: Swedish Venture Capital Association (SVCA) and the company Förvärv och Fusioner

26 Leveraged buyout investments SEK billion and number Figure B5 Sources: Swedish Venture Capital Association (SVCA)

27 EBIT multiples for leveraged buyouts Average in SEK million Figure B6 Source: The Centre for Management Buy Out Research

28 EBIT multiples for Swedish equity companies’ acquisitions abroad Average in SEK million Figure B7 Source: The Centre for Management Buy Out Research

29 Interest-expenditure and debt ratios for listed property companies Figure 2:9 Sources: Financial statements and the Riksbank

30 Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companies in Nordic countries and Germany Per cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:10 Source: Moody´s KMV

31 Vacancy rates for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure B8 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank

32 Real rents for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Figure B9 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank

33 Real prices for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Figure B10 Sources: Newsec AB, Jones Lang LaSalle and Reuters EcoWin

34 Average direct return required for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure B11 Sources: Newsec AB and Reuters EcoWin

35 Household borrowing by type of institution Percentage 12-month change Figure 2:11 Source: The Riksbank

36 Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable income Per cent Figure 2:12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

37 Duration of fixed interest periods for house mortgage loans Per cent of total stock Figure 2:13 Source: The Riksbank

38 Household debt and house prices Index: 1986 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden Figure 2:14

39 House prices Index 1986 = 100 Figure 2:15 Source: Statistics Sweden

40 Completed new residential construction, by type of housing Number of dwelling units Figure 2:16 Source: Statistics Sweden

41 National average price of tenant owned dwellings SEK per square metre Figure 2:17 Source: maklarstatistik.se

42 Debt and interest expenditure ratios for indebted households Per cent Figure B12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

43 Debt and interest expenditure ratios, by income deciles Per cent Figure B13 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

44 Share of household sector debt and proportion of households below the margin, by income deciles Per cent Figure B14 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

45 Shares of household sector debt and assets, by income deciles Per cent Figure B15 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

46 CHAPTER 3 Developments in the banking

47 Geographical breakdown of operating profits for 2005 Per cent Figure 3:1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

48 Implied volatility of bank equity Per cent, moving 10-day average Figure 3:2 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

49 Pre-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:3 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

50 Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks Four-quarter figures, SEK billion, 2006 prices Figure 3:4 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

51 The major Swedish banks’ profits Four-quarter figures, SEK billion Figure 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

52 The major banks’ securities-related commission income, Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover and a Nordic stock-market index SEK million and index: 1997=100 Figure 3:6 Sources: Bank reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

53 Post-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:7 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

54 Breakdown of the major banks income Per cent Figure B15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

55 Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Figure B16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

56 Cost efficiency of the major banks Per cent Figure B17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

57 Figure B18 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank Cost/income ratios Per cent

58 Stock of loans to the general public, sector breakdown and share of growth Per cent Figure 3:8 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

59 Lending by credit institutions to companies in Sweden Percentage 12-month change, three-month moving average Figure 3:9 Source: The Riksbank

60 Lending by credit institutions to households in Sweden Percentage 12-month change Figure 3:10 Source: The Riksbank

61 Lending to the public in Sweden and abroad Index: 2005 Q1 = 100 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank Figure 3:11

62 Provisions for incurred and probable loan losses Per cent of loan stock, accumulated over four quarters Figure 3:12 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

63 Loan losses, net Per cent of loan stock Figure 3:13 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

64 Tier 1 capital ratios of the four major Swedish banks Per cent Figure 3:14 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

65 Tier 1 capital ratios of the major Nordic banks Per cent Figure 3:15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

66 The major Swedish banks’ deposits, lending and funding gap SEK billion and per cent Figure 3:16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

67 The major Swedish banks’ interest- bearing assets and liabilities, December 2005 SEK billion Figure 3:17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

68 Tier 1 capital ratios in the four major Swedish banks after one of them has defaulted Per cent. Recovery 25 per cent Figure 3:18 Source: The Riksbank

69 ARTICLE 1 Using external information to measure credit risk

70 Lending, geographical breakdown Per cent Figure B1 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank

71 Lending, sector breakdown Per cent Figure B2 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank

72 Corporate lending, industry breakdown Per cent Figure B3 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank

73 Expected loss as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Per cent Figure 1 Source: The Riksbank

74 Figure 2 Risk capital requirement as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Per cent Source: The Riksbank

75 Expected loss and risk capital requirement as a percentage of the bank’s credit portfolio Figure 3 Source: The Riksbank

76 Risk capital and Tier 1 capital in the banks Per cent Figure 4 Source: The Riksbank

77 Income breakdown in the four major banks Per cent Figure 5 Sources: The banks’ annual reports and the Riksbank

78 ARTICLE 2 Hedge funds and the financial system

79 Market index Source: Reuters Ecowin Figure 1

80 Number of hedge funds registered in Sweden and the percentage of capital managed Per cent Source: Fondbolagens förening Figure 2

81 Nordic Hedge fund index (NHX) Sweden and the Affärsvärlden general index Source: Hedgenordic Figure 3


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